Strrki Evrpa - er a nsta leiti?

a hefur vart fari framhj mrgum, a alvarleg krsa er n uppi Evrusvinu Evrpusambandinu.

Merkel, kanslari skalands, sagi etta ekki vera spurningu um Evruna, heldur hvort sjlft Evrpusambandi lifir ea deyr.

Angela Merkel, telur a krsan feli sr mguleika, sterkara sambandi - og anga beri n a stefna.

'If Euro Fails, So Will the Idea of European Union'

"If the euro collapses, Merkel warned, "then Europe and the idea of European union will fail."" - ""We have a common currency, but no common political and economic union," she said. "And this is exactly what we must change. To achieve this -- therein lies the opportunity of the crisis." - "European governments, she said, promised their citizens stability for the common currency, the euro, "and we must keep that promise." Merkel described the current crisis as the "greatest test for the EU since the collapse of communism." If we do not succeed in mastering this crisis, she warned, it will have "unforeseeable consequences" for Europe. "But if we succeed, then we will have a stronger Europe than ever before.""

Trichet, selabankastjri Evrpusambandsins, segir vandann vera ann versta, sem Evrpa hefur lent , um 65 r.

Jean Claude Trichet, tekur svipaann streng, og Merkel - nefnilega a bregast urfi vi essari krsu, einmitt me v a strauka sameiginlega stjrnun peninga- og vntanlega einnig efnahagsmlum.

A 'Quantum Leap' in Governance of the Euro Zone Is Needed

Trichet: ...it is clear that since September 2008 we have been facing the most difficult situation since the Second World War -- perhaps even since the First World War. We have experienced -- and are experiencing -- truly dramatic times.

Trichet: ...we must now demand extensive adjustment programs from the governments, which the heads of state and government committed to the Friday before last. They are committed to accelerating the consolidation of their budgets. They know what is at stake now.

Trichet:...There is a need for a quantum leap in the governance of the euro area. There need to be major improvements to prevent bad behavior, to ensure effective implementation of the recommendations made by "peers" and to ensure real and effective sanctions in case of breaches (of the Stability and Growth Pact). The ECB is calling for major changes, and I will explain this in the task force chaired by (European Council President) Herman van Rompuy.

g bendi san og strmerkilega greiningu Martin Wolf, ristjra Financial Times. Wolf leggur einnig til, a farin veri lei sameiginlegra lausna, sem vntanlega feli sr a myndu veri einhverskonar sameiginleg hagstjrn.

Hann nefnir nokkur atrii sem a hans mati, arf a takast vi.

Governments up the stakes in their fight with markets

  1. "The first and most fundamental is whether to go towards greater integration or towards disintegration. The answer has to be the former."
  2. "The second is how to manage divergence. The eurozone cannot rely on markets alone. It will have to police divergence in upswings and cushion adjustment in downswings. This is why a monetary fund is essential."
  3. "The third is how to facilitate changes in competitiveness. This means labour market reform. It may also mean legal means for adjusting nominal wages, on a one-off basis."
  4. "The fourth is over how to reinforce solidarity. One interesting idea, from the Brussels-based think-tank, Bruegel, is that eurozone countries should pool up to 60 per cent of GDP of their national debts, thereby creating one of the world’s two largest public debt markets."
  5. "The last is over how to restructure excess debt. This must be allowed. The alternative creates vast moral hazard, not among politicians, as has been feared, but among financiers."

Martin Wolf, kemur einnig me sna eigin greiningu , hvers vegna ml fru svo lla. En, eins og hann lsir, nust ekki fram au vimi sem sett voru fram upphafi, svokllu "convergence criteria".

Reglur um hmarks halla, hafi veri virtar a vettugi, ea sbr. Spn hafi myndun bluhagkerfis um tma bi til sndartekjur fyrir rkisstjrn Spnar, sem hafi virst um tma vera me afgang. g bendi , a a akkrat sama tti sr sta slandi, .e. egar bluhagkerfi hr var sem mestum uppgangi, var rkissjur rekinn me afgangi skv. eigin tlum. En, eins og var me Spn, var etta sndarhagnaur ekki raunverulegur - alveg eins og sland, sytur Spnn uppi me hrun, og alvarlega timburmenn. Hr hrundi bankakerfi, en ar byggingainaur. En um tma, virstist sem a vri orin tbreidd tska, a eiga sumarhs Spni, og grarleg uppbygging nbygga tti sr sta Spni, langt - langt umfram eigin rf Spnverja. N er s byggingabla sprungin, og eftir sytja ekki bara heilu draugahverfin - heldur heilu draugaborgirnar.

San lengi framan-af, leit markaurinn nnast smu augum ll rkisskuldabrf, h v hvaa rkissjur Evrurkis gaf au brf Evrum t. annig, gat Grikkland selt skuldabrf og fengi nnast smu kjr og skaland. etta var bilun - .s. langt - langt er milli raunverulegs trverugleika grskra stjrnvalda og eirra sku. etta notfru sr fyrirtki, almenningur og rkissjir, S-Evrpurkjanna. v, eim lndum, voru kostnaarhkkanir - ergo verblga - mun hrri en skalandi, en voru au einungis a borga smu vexti. etta ddi, a .s. launastig fr hraar hkkandi, .s. eirra verblga var tilvikum reynd hrri en vaxtastigi; skapaist s tilfinning, a ln vru nnast gjafaf. (etta akkrat sama, tti sr sta slandi, .s. str hluti atvinnulfs og hluti einstaklinga, skuldbatt sig Evrum, og rum mynntum, til a n ln svipuu vaxtastigi og tkaist erlendum mrkuum. sama tma var krnan mjg h, og ln virtust kosta nnst ekki neitt. annig, a skapais mjg h skuldsetning mjg margra. Vi frum sem sagt, mjg svipa fyller eins og S-Evrpulnd Evrpusambandsins, nema ef e-h er enn ktara).

---------------------

Hrna fyrir nean, er myndin me grfunum, sem Martin Wolf setur upp, umfjllun sinni. Myndin er gn skrari, en sunni hans Wold - en, eir sem vilja, geta opna suna hans, me v a virkja hlekkinn.

Fyrsta grafi, snir a lengi vel voru S-Evrpulndin, a greia mjg verulegt lag ofan .s. skaland urfti a bja fyrir sn skuldabrf, en san kreppan skall hefur s vaxtamunur vaxi hrum skrefum.

Nsta graf, .s. slum er raa hverri ofan ara, kemur skrt fram hve mikill munur og vaxandi, raist milli eirra landa, sem fluttu t vs. au lnd sem fluttu inn. Me rum orum, lnd me viskipta afgang, eirra afgangur stkkai, sama tma, og lnd me viskiptahalla, a eirra halli stkkai. essi run, gekk vert .s. Evru sinnar hfu sp, .e. run sitt hvora ttina sta run tt a auknu jafnvgi. etta misrmi, er einn hfuvandi Evrunnar dag, og hann stafar af v, a hagkerfi S- og N-Evrpu, eru eiginlega of lk til a rfast vel, innan sama gjaldmiils.

rija grafi, snir svo hvernig framleislukostnaur, hefur vaxi hrum skrefum S-Evrpu, og bili milli eirra og skalands vaxi hrum skrefum, san Evran var tekin upp. etta aukna misrmi, snir mismuninn verblgu milli skalands og eirra landa. ennan mun, geta essi lnd ekki jafna me gengisfellingu, eins og gert hefur veri hr, heldur eingngu me beinum launalkkunum - sem munu urfa a vera mjg verulegar nstu misserum, me mefylgjandi lfskjaraskeringu. (En, essi lnd lyfu um efni fram, alveg eins og vi slendingar. .e. mjg hugavert, a bera saman run mla S-Evrpu og hrlendis, akkrat vegna ess hve hn hefur a mrgu leiti veri keimlk - sem bendir til ess, a ef vi hefum teki upp Evru 10. ratugnum, hefum vi mjg sennilega spila sama "game" bara innan Evrunnar, alveg me sama rangri og hj Grikkjum - Spnverjum - og Portglum.)

Eurozone country bond spreads

Governments up the stakes in their fight with markets

"Why has such radical intervention been found necessary? It (the monetary union) rested on three central assumptions: first, treaty-defined limits would constrain fiscal deficits of members; second, to the extent that this failed, the “no bail-out” clause would constrain them; and, third, member economies would converge over time. Alas, none of this has proved to be true."

  1. "First, the treaty-defined limits on deficits proved both ineffective and irrelevant. They proved ineffective, because, when they should have been binding, they were ignored. This was most spectacularly true of Greece, which made its figures up. They proved irrelevant, because some countries that have big deficits today, notably Spain, easily met the fiscal criteria, so long as their bubble economy was inflating: Spain ran a fiscal surplus in 2005, 2006 and 2007."
  2. "Second, markets long paid no attention to emerging fiscal frailty, rating all eurozone bonds similarly. As Paul De Grauwe of Leuven university states, in a mordant note for the Centre for European Policy Studies: “The source of the government debt crisis is the past profligacy of large segments of the private sector, and in particular the financial sector.” The financial markets financed the orgy and now, in a panic, are refusing to finance the resulting clean-up. At every stage, they have acted pro-cyclically."
  3. "Third, the story of the eurozone economy has, in consequence, been one of divergence, not convergence. The rough external balance masked the emergence of countries with huge current account surpluses and corresponding exports of capital, notably Germany, and of others with the opposite condition, notably Spain. In countries with weak domestic demand and low inflation, real interest rates were high; in countries with strong demand and higher inflation, the reverse was true. The result is not just huge fiscal deficits, now that private-sector spending has collapsed, but a need to regain lost competitiveness. But, inside the eurozone, this is possible only with falling wages, higher productivity growth than in Germany (and so soaring unemployment), or both."


Tveggja hraa Evrpa?

eir sem hafa karpa um Evrpuml, kannast vi ennan frasa, en hann felur sr hugmynd a sum Evrpurki taki vissum skilningi framr hinum, .e. eim skilningi a au taki upp enn nnara samstarf, en nnur lnd standi eitthva baka til og sleppi msu v sem essi kjarna lnd geri.

etta er og hefur lengi veri, mguleg tfrsla.

nnur hugmynd, er "Evrpa ala cart" - .e. a Evrpusamstarfi fnkeri eins og matseill, og sum smakki einu en ekki ru. Jafnvel, a hpaskipunin eftir mlefnum, s misvxl.

  • g nefni etta, vegna ess a ef Evrulndin taka upp sameiginlega hagstjrn, eru au ar me bin a stga mjg strt skref tt a myndun hins sameiginlega rkis.
  • Svo miki liggur , a framkvma eitthva - a a getur veri, a etta veri einfaldlega kvei fyrir lok sumars, 2010.

Martin Wolf varar vi, a hinn valkosturinn s ekki kja fsilegur -

Governments up the stakes in their fight with markets

"Of course, it is possible to imagine a return to national currencies. But this would cause the financial system to implode, since the relations between assets and liabilities now in euros would become so uncertain. There would be massive capital flight into the banks of those countries deemed safe."

etta er sennilega rtt hj honum - a ef mistekst a mynda essa sameiginlegu hagstjrn, annig a hrun Evrunnar fari endanum fram - og a sennilega ekki miki seinna en nsta haust, a g held; veru alvarlegt fjrmlahrun sem vart lyktar me ru, en kreppu 2 Evrpu.

  • S kreppa veri enn dpri en s er hfst, 2008.
  • a hrun, getur jafnvel ori "trigger event" fyrir enn strra aljlegt fjrmla-kerfis-hrun.

a er v miki hfi, og rkisstjrnirnar vera undir gfurlegum rstingi, a leisa mlin eitt skipti fyrir ll - .e. me v a koma legg "Political Union as well as economical one".

Merkel, hefur v sennilega alveg 100% rtt fyrir sr, krsunni liggja tkifri - .e. fyrir , sem fylgja draumnum um Evrpurki.

a getur raunverulega gerst, a Evrpurki veri til - augum stuningsmanna, eins og fuglinn fnix r rstunum.

--------------------------

En, verur orin til 2. hraa Evrpa - .s. vart verur anna s, en a nokkurs konar rkisstjrn Evrpu, veri einungis fyrir melimi Evrunnar.

En, aan fr, felur lka innganga Evruna sr, inngngu sjlft Evrpurki og ar me a endanlega fullveldis afsal sambrilegt v ef t.d. - ef um sland er a ra, a kvei vri a skja um inngngu Bandarkin. En, .e. hgt. Me formlegu samykki allra fylkja Bandarkjanna, getur ntt fylki fengi inngngu - sbr. a innganga Evrpusambandi krefst samykkis allra melimarkja.

Hva me Evrpuingi: Verur ar t.d. efri og neri deild? .e. efri deild er lnd Evrunsambandsins og plitska sambandsins, hefu ein agang a. Mean, au sytja einnig neri deild, samt eim aildarlndum Evrpusambandsins, sem ekki eru ailar a Evunni og plitska sambandinu.

Hva me Rherrari: Verur ar einnig myndaur, sr klbbur fyrir melimarki essa innra sambands eirra rkja, sem eru melimir Evrunnar og plit. sambandsins henni tengdu? annig, a ar veri ennig A flokkur rkja og B flokkur rkja?

Hva me leitogari: Eiginlega smu spurningar.

-------------------------------

Eitt er ruggt, a framundan er harasta rimma sgu Evrpusambandsins.

En, t.d. er ljst a sum rki eru ekki lei inn Evru - sbr. Bretland, Svj, Danmrk.

nnur, t.d. Plland, hafa fresta tilraunum til upptku Evru, mrg r til vibtar.

  • a sama gildir og ur, a rki eins og Bretland, vera mjg treg til a heimila fyrir sitt leiti, stofnun innra klbbs Evrpusambandsins.
  • a sama vi um nokkurn fj. annarra rkja,- en stan er tti vi a a missa hrif.
  • En, alla t san hugmyndin um 2. hraa Evrpu kom fram, hefur a veri hindrun fyrir hugmynd, a rki utan klbbsins myndu vera tiltlulega hrifalaus - enda bendir flest til a klbbinn myndu mynda ngilega mrg og sterk lnd, til reynd myndi klbburinn ra flestu sem lndin innan hans vildu, .e. innan heildar sambandsins.
  • Lndin, sem ekki vilja gefa frekar eftir af snu sjlfsti, munu v fara fram einhverja stra bitlinga mti. .e. ruggt.

---------------------------

g held a etta s sasta tkifri, til a bjarga Evrunni - .e. myndun plitska sambandsins langra.

er nokkurn veginn, bi a fullklra hina raunverulega rkis myndun.

  • Enn er langt fr ljst, akkrat hvernig.
  • En, enn eru ekki uppi hugmyndir, um a skapa embtti sameiginlegs forstisrherra.
  • Htta er , a fyrirkomulagi veri - svona hlfbaka.

T.d. a tfra etta skv. eim starfshefum, sem eru til staar - sem hafa fengi gagnrni, a vera lrislegar.

  • a vri annig, a um vri a ra reynd, embttismanna stjrn. Svipa fyrirkomulag og dag, nema me meiri vld.
  • San fara ml fyrir ing- og svo rherra; til endanlegrar kvrunar.

En, ailar innan Framkvmdastjrnar su eir, sem fari me hina eiginlegu rkisstjrn - .e. daglega stjrnun.

Betra vri, a fylgja lrishefum, eins og r hafa ori til, innan einstakra rkja, .e. a skipa rherra titla - einhverjir sem skipair su, plitskir rherrar tiltekinna mlaflokka.

Eiginlega rkisstjrn. a vri skrara fyrirkomulag - en a bein embttismanna stjrn vri heppileg.

Hrna er spurningin, um .s. kalla er "accountability" .e. a hg tk su a gera aila byrga.

Einnig, a um s a ra lrislega kvrun, sem s rt ess hverjir a eru, sem f a stjrna.

a hefur fram a essu, ekki veri svo grarlega alvarlegt .s. kallaur hefur veri lrishalli, .s. eftir allt saman hrifamikil hefur Evrpusambandi fram a essu, haft verulega takmrku vld. En, ef a verur a eiginlegu Evrpsku rki, er a allt breitt.

er ekki lengur sttanlegt, a hafa hlfbaka stjrnskipulag. Ef a veru, mun a valda vanda sar - .e. "accountability" og "credibility".

Niurstaa

  • Atburir liinna 2. vikna, hafa breitt llu innan Evrpusambandsins.
  • Merkel hefur sennilega rtt fyrir sr, a vali s milli nnara plit. samstarfs ea sennilega hruns draumsins um Evrpusamband - sem strrki Evrpu.
  • Hva verur er mgulegt um a sp - en ruggt hva sem gerist, a niurstaan verur "sguleg".
  • etta verur sennilega komi ljs fyrir hausti - jafnvel fyrr.

Vali stainn, er sennilega mjg alvarlegt fjrmlahrun innan Evrpu - sem getur komi af sta n, mun vtkara hruni hins aljlega fjrmlakerfis.

Persnulega, er g ekki viss, hvort g vil frekar. En, .e. nnur saga.

Kv.


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Athugasemdir

1 Smmynd: Haraldur Baldursson

Fn greining, sem endranr.

Spurningin liggur nrri...er essi krsa hnnu til a n essu markmii....e. a sameina Evrpu enn frekar ? Ef a er tilgangur einhverra str-peningaafla, er eim a ganga ljmandi vel.

Hitt er svo anna ml a frekari sameining svona lkra landa vri mikil synd.

Haraldur Baldursson, 16.5.2010 kl. 22:18

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Einar Björn Bjarnason

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Einar Björn Bjarnason
Einar Björn Bjarnason
Stjórnmála- og Evrópufræðingur. Áhugi á stjórnmálum, Evrópumálum, alþjóðamálum, málefnum Miðausturlanda, trúmálum, vísindum og tækni, og margt fleira.
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