Þolpróf Evrópusambandsins, á bönkum aðildarríkja - sannfæra ekki!

Langþráðar niðurstöður sameiginlegra þolprófa á bönkum starfandi innan Evrusvæðisins, virðast ekki vera að sannfæra fjárfesta um að bankakerfi Evrópu standi styrkum fótum.

 

Þvert á móti virðist sem að prófin hafi verið gölluð: European bank stress tests

• By testing only the banks’ trading books, the CEBS (European Banking Supervisors) failed to address the European banking sector’s Achilles heel – its exposure to sovereign debt. 

• "The regulators assumed that no European sovereign would default, which is either brave or foolhardy in light of the eurozone debt crisis."

• "The most extreme assumption was a 23.1 per cent haircut on Greek debt. If Athens defaults, it will cause more damage than that."

• "The double-dip scenario – deviation of 3 percentage points below the European Union’s forecast – also seems modest."

• "The results of the stress tests on European bansk - only seven out of 91 banks failed the tests compared with 10 out of 19 in a similar US exercise last year - are not reassuring." Europe’s stress tests make a whimper not a bang

• "The CEBS says the total capital shortfall for the seven failed banks was just €3.5bn." Euro slips as test results digested

• "A handful of banks that were earlier seen as in danger of failing, such as Italy’s Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena and Germany’s Deutsche Postbank, narrowly passed the test." Euro slips as test results digested

• "But the real question is where the tests leave those banks that passed essentially on a technicality – those with tier one ratios of only a few basis points above 6 per cent." European bank stress tests

• "All the big European banking names passed; the seven that did not were either already failed institutions or the weaker banks in Spain and Greece."

Með öðrum orðum - fjárfestar gagnrýna þolprófin fyrir skort á trúverðugleika - þ.e. að þau séu ekki nægilega ströng annars vega og hins vegar að inn í þau vanti mikilvægar breytur.

Þ.e. eins og að prófin hafi verið sett upp þannig, að sem fæstir bankar myndu falla - þ.e. ekki einn einasti stór banki. Ég er ekki hissa á, að fjárfestum finnist þetta grunsamlegt.

 

Euro slips as test results digested

"Overall immediate market action was muted. The S&P 500 index swung to a small loss, 0.2 per cent, and US Treasury bond yields flattened out after seeing gains earlier. The euro neared session lows, down 0.6 per cent against the dollar at $1.2794, and 0.2 per cent lower to Y111.89 against the yen." - "US traders were not impressed by the results, as US-listed shares of European banks were mostly lower."

 

Engin risasveifa - fjárfestar eru ekki að fara á límingunum yfir þess - en, ef til vill er það vegna þess, að ímsar yfirlísingar einstakra ríkisstjórna, um að þeirra bankar yrðu allir í lagi - "had already given the game away".

Niðurstöðurnar hafi ekki verið óvæntar þannig að fjárfestar hafi þegar verið búnir að reikna með þeim.

 

Europe’s stress tests make a whimper not a bang

“Thus, while the stress tests, which are due to be completed later this month, are intended to reassure investors that banks’ problems are fully out in the open, they could have the opposite effect. If they identify capital deficiencies while being regarded by investors as biased and lax, they will heighten financial fears.”

 

Eftir helgi kemur betur í ljós hvernig markaðir munu bregðast við - þó fyrstu viðbrögð séu ekki ofsafengin.

 

Niðurstaða

Það virðist vera að tilraun yfirvalda meðlimaríkja Evrusvæðisins til að róa fjárfesta um stöðu bankastofnana sinna, með gerð sameiginlegs þolprófs hafi ekki skilað þeim árangri er stefnt var að.

 

Kv.