Skv. greiningu erlends sérfræðings, fá ísl. stjv. falleinkunn! Mjög áhugaverð greining "Stjórnenda sálfræðings"!

Varðandi falleinkunn okkar stjórnvalda okkar, þá er það mín útlegging miðað við þ.s. Dr. Muskat hefur fram að færa.

• En, lestur viðtalsins við hann, skapaði kaldan svitahroll hjá mér!

• En, þetta er eins og að lesa lýsingu á okkar stjv. og hegðun þeirra, þ.e. lýsing hans á því hvað sé dæmigerð hegðun stjv. sem fara í neikvætt hegðunarferli! 

 

-------------------------Fyrir neðan viðtalið v. Dr. Muskat!

Dr Jack Muskat is a management psychologist with over twenty years consulting and business experience with individuals and organizations. He is an acknowledged expert on issues relating to organizational culture and leadership, succession planning, strategic management and corporate distress. Dr. Muskat received his Ph.D. in Applied Psychology from the University of Toronto. He is a member of the Canadian and American Psychological Associations and is a recognized speaker and published author.

Q: Dr Muskat can you tell us a bit about your experience in dealing with organisations and leaders under stress?

JM: Well usually I only like to get involved in situations where there is a high probability of a successful restructuring or exit from crisis. The key indicators for a successful exit from distress are usually all or a combination of the following factors: it is a situation that matters in terms of the dollar amounts; it is politically and economically sensitive; there may be international implications; it might also feature multiple investment parties and in all cases there is a significant debt load. You also have to have the right leadership team in place.

Q: So you are saying if all of these factors are present the odds of turning things around are good?

JM: Not exactly, what I mean is that when all of the factors are present that the odds for a successful crisis management outcome should be good. What I find frequently is that psychological factors erode the odds of turning a situation around. Whether the cause of distress is management weakness, inadequate financial controls, fraud, weak strategy or execution or some external factors; what we usually see in most stress situations is that is that leaders are frequently first caught is a cycle of denial that is  then followed by a cycle of blaming others for the problems. If this goes on for too long the opportunity to successfully turn things around will disappear and failure becomes the only “option”.  I can tell you that the foregoing sequence of events is already in motion in a number of Sovereigns who find themselves under financial pressure.

Q: How so?

JM: It all comes down to the personalities involved. What I have found is that when leaders are under stress it is very common for them to slip into behaviour patterns that are extremely counterproductive. I say this because we use a variety of tools to diagnose the issues and to determine whether the incumbent leadership in a crisis situation is psychologically suited to managing the crisis, stabilizing matters and capable of executing a credible recovery plan.

Q: Can you provide some examples please?

JM: Well you have start from the reality that the leaders in a crisis situation are usually new to these type of events. Typically you don’t find crisis managers working full time leading a company or in a Government waiting for the day when something blows up. The leadership is a crisis is more typically untested and new to the situation. This means three things: (1) there may be feeling of guilt or anger associated with the crisis as they find it difficult to distance themselves emotionally from the situation; (2) there may very well be a competency problem amongst the leadership in that they are incapable of dealing with the issues; and (3) there may be a bandwidth or capacity problem within the organisation as the leadership becomes engulfed in problems that are increasing at a rate faster than its ability to solve them. Alternatively you may find that the peson selected because of relevant credentials has not bothered to properly analyze the crisis and evaluate his prescriptions in the context of what the situation really might require.

Q: What happens then?

JM: This is where the trouble really starts. If you have a leadership in a predicament like that they may react in a variety of ways, all of them counterproductive: (1) they could bury their heads in the sand and refuse to acknowledge the problems or that their preferred way of dealing with them won’t work; (2) they become defensive and attack anyone who looks into how the issues are being  handled with the intention of offering sound advice; (3) they might engage in “magical thinking”, that is, believing that a painless solution is available to them if only they do one simple thing; (4) they might engage in nihilistic thinking, believing that the situation is so bad that it doesn’t matter if it gets worse; (5) they may panic and opt for a destructive course of action; or finally (6) the leadership may engage in all of these behaviours.

Q: Wow, that sounds like it would be impossible to deal with.

JM: It gets worse. If these types of behaviours are present it might also be accompanied by physical symptoms that further detract from the ability of these leaders to make the correct decisions – lack of self esteem, feelings of failure, sleeplessness, poor eating habits, lethargy, withdrawal from social interactions. All of these conditions lead to inertia, poor decision making and a tendency to always be in a reactive mental state. Frequently valuable time and energy is wasted by these type of leaders in diverting scarce resources and attention to issues that are not germane to resolving the actual causes of the crisis. This is usually known as “rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic”.  We all know how that situation turned out

Q: So how do you handle this and recover the situation?

JM: You have to get the right leadership installed. Our screening techniques allow us to determine if any of these destructive behaviours are present within a leadership group and whether the leadership group has the right aptitudes to deal with the crisis and apply solutions. In a crisis situation the best leader is one that knows how to admit to and correctly prioritize the actual problems, knows that they must urgently identify the best possible advisors, and then is prepared to receive and process advice in order to create a plan to lead the way out of the mess. On top of them being able to then stick to and execute a credible plan, you also want leaders who can frame the situation in such a way as to inspire others to support the crisis management plan. This is important because you want to maximize the likelihood of emerging from the problem. A good example of this is the current leadership in Great Britain. They have a debt crisis there and the new Government has just delivered an austerity budget. However by evoking nostalgic memories of the post-WWII rationing period and the British “stiff upper lip” they have got the British public behind them and that has measurably increased the odds that the debt management plan will work there. The same cannot be said for many other crisis-hit economies, a number of which we at Recovery Partners expect will hit the proverbial “wall” in the near term, barring a change in course.

Q: Thank you for these valuable insights Dr Muskat. It is clear that from what you have said, that the probability of a policy mis-step or other dangerous miscalculation is relativley high in the current environment as it relates to Sovereign Debt in a number of countries.

JM: It certainly does seem so.

-------------------------Viðtali v. Dr. Muskat lokið!

 

Mér sýnist þetta allt eiga við:

1. there may be feeling of guilt or anger associated with the crisis as they find it difficult to distance themselves emotionally from the situation;
2. there may very well be a competency problem amongst the leadership in that they are incapable of dealing with the issues; and
3. there may be a bandwidth or capacity problem within the organisation as the leadership becomes engulfed in problems that are increasing at a rate faster than its ability to solve them. Alternatively you may find that the peson selected because of relevant credentials has not bothered to properly analyze the crisis and evaluate his prescriptions in the context of what the situation really might require. 

Það batnar ekki þegar lengra er lesið:

1. they could bury their heads in the sand and refuse to acknowledge the problems or that their preferred way of dealing with them won’t work; (Þingvallastj)
2. they become defensive and attack anyone who looks into how the issues are being  handled with the intention of offering sound advice; (Stj. Steingr. J og Jóhönnu)
3. they might engage in “magical thinking”, that is, believing that a painless solution is available to them if only they do one simple thing; (Stj. Steingr. J og Jóhönnu) - (ESB aðild)
4. they might engage in nihilistic thinking, believing that the situation is so bad that it doesn’t matter if it gets worse; (Þessa gætir nú meðal VG-a, þeirra sem tala um hagvöxt sem óþarfa)
5. they may panic and opt for a destructive course of action, (ekki komið enn)
6. or finally; the leadership may engage in all of these behaviours. (ekki alveg allur listinn kominn)

Að lokum þetta:

• It gets worse. If these types of behaviours are present it might also be accompanied by physical symptoms that further detract from the ability of these leaders to make the correct decisions – lack of self esteem, feelings of failure, sleeplessness, poor eating habits, lethargy, withdrawal from social interactions. All of these conditions lead to inertia, poor decision making and a tendency to always be in a reactive mental state.

Mér hefur fundist Jóhanna oft dálítið áhugalaus undanfarna mánuði. Sést oft lítið. Steing. J. er oft nánast sá eini sem tjáir sig. Síðan, að auki þegar Jóhanna tjáir sig á annað bort, hefur mér einmitt oft fundist þau ummæli stuðandi og neikvæð.

• Frequently valuable time and energy is wasted by these type of leaders in diverting scarce resources and attention to issues that are not germane to resolving the actual causes of the crisis. This is usually known as “rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic”.  We all know how that situation turned out 

Sbr. - Enn stefnt að því að rannsaka hvernig Ísland hafnaði á lista hinna viljugu þjóða - sem vart telst til þörfustu mála í dag, þ.s. allt er vitað sem skiptir máli.

Eða - Ríkisstjórnin samþykkti aðgerðaráætlun í loftlagsmálum - þó svo þetta sé þannig séð jákvætt mál, þá er þetta ekki endilega þ.s. liggur á að hrinda í verk akkúrat núna.

Ekki síst - ESB aðildarferlið - sem mun ekki breyta nokkrum hlut það kreppuástand sem landið er í - svo þ.e. vart hægt að sjá að gagn sé í því þegar á málið er horft eingöngu út frá hagþróun - enda mörg ár í að sá hagur sem stefnt er að ná fram náist - a.m.k. 10-15 ár. Svo, þetta mál hefði alveg mátt bíða.

 

Niðurstaða

Mér sýnist fengur af greiningu Dr Muskat. Mjög áhugavert að sjá það, að okkar stjórnmálamenn eru ekki endilega það versta í heimssögunni. Heldur eingöngu dæmi um hegðun slæmra stjórnenda.

En þ.e. óhjákvæmileg niðurstaða að núverandi og síðasta ríkisstjórn, séu einmitt dæmi um flest það slæma sem Dr. Muskat tínir saman um hvað sé dæmigert um það hvernig ekki á að leysa úr hlutum.

Þetta er ekki nýtt. Þessi tilfinning manns hefur verið sterk alla tíð síðan kreppan skall á. Að stjórnmálin og stjórnkerfið, sé einhvern veginn "insular" um sína hugsun, og sé einfaldlega ekki að nýta sér þá miklu reynslu sem til er þegar saga annarra ríkja sem hafa lent í kreppum er skoðuð.

En, allt þ.s. gerst hefur hér hefur gerst annars staðar áður. Fjölmörg ríki á umliðinni öld, lentu í bankakreppum. Þ.e. lærdómur þarna úti. Þ.eru víti til varnaðar sem hægt er að forðast.

En, einhvern veginn, virðist þröngsýnin og eingangrun í hugsun, vera svo föst í skorðum innan okkar stjórnkerfis og stjórnmála - að útlit er fyrir að Ísland muni nokkurn veginn, endurtaka nær fullkomlega nær þá verstu röð mistaka sem hægt er að framkvæma.

Óhamingju Íslands virðist nánast allt efla þessa dagana!

 

Kv.