Alrei eins mikið verið gefið út af ríkisskuldabréfum - Kína tekur við af Japan sem næststæra hagkerfi heim á næsta ári - Vandræði Evrunnar!

Áhugaverðar greinar, af vef Financial Times.

Sovereigns: Debt levels raise fears of further downgrades

 
Þetta er mögnuð grein, en höfundur greinarinnar fjallar um þá staðreynd að það stefnir í aldrei nokkru sinni hafi verið gefin út meira af ríkisskuldabréfum, sem ríkissjóðir Evrópuríkja ætla sér að selja á markaði.

Þetta muni setja þrýsting - upp á við - á þá vexti er ríkin neyðast til að bjóða, svo fjárfestar kaupi.

Meira að segja, Þýskaland hafi lent í vandræðum með útgáfu.

 

"This year the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development forecasts $16,000bn will be raised in government bonds among its 30, mostly industrialised, member countries." - "For example, Germany suffered two bond auction failures last year as not enough investors turned up to buy their debt. For Europe’s benchmark economy to suffer such an embarrassment is a telling sign of the strains in the market."

Einhverjar áhugaverðar útkomur munu klárlega verða. En, ef Þýskaland er ekki lengur öruggt meö sölu, þá er enginn í Evrópu lengur öruggur. Hver sem er, getur lent í vandræðum með útgáfu, og neyðst til að hækka vaxtakjör.

En, því hærri sem vextirnir verða, því erfiðara verður fyrir ríkin, að fjármagna sig.

Hættan er augljós, að e-h ríki lendi í alvarlegum vandræðum.

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Grein eftir George Soros.

The euro will face bigger tests than Greece

"A fully fledged currency requires both a central bank and a Treasury. The Treasury need not be used to tax citizens on an everyday basis but it needs to be available in times of crisis. When the financial system is in danger of collapsing, the central bank can provide liquidity, but only a Treasury can deal with problems of solvency." - "Germany is adamantly opposed to serving as the deep pocket for its profligate partners. Therefore makeshift arrangements will have to be found." - "...makeshift assistance should be enough for Greece, but that leaves Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland. Together they constitute too large a portion of euroland to be helped in this way. ...It is clear what is needed: more intrusive monitoring and institutional arrangements for conditional assistance. A well-organised eurobond market would be desirable. The question is whether the political will for these steps can be generated."

 

Soros er greinilega þeirrar skoðunar, að Evrusamstarfið hafi verið alvarlega gallað frá upphafi. Hann telur nauðsynlegt, að búa til e-h konar sameiginlega stofnun, er geti gripið inn eins og ríkissjóðir. Hafi sem sagt, nægilegt fjármagn. Auk þessa þurfi mun meira eftirlit, og sameiginlegan Evru-skuldabréfa markað.

Þarna er Soros að tala um breytingar, sem mjög erfitt verður fyrir ríkin 27 að afgreiða með nokkru hraði, því þarna er verið að tala um umtalsverða tilfærslu á fullveldi yfir til stofnana Evrópusambandsins.

Slíkar ákvarðanir, eru aldrei innan ESB teknar með hraði. Vanalega taka samningaviðræður um svo stórfelldar tilfærslur, einhver ár.

En, ESB hefur ekki slíkann tíma.

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Á næsta ári, missir Japan greinilega þann status, að vera næst stærsta hagkerfi heims, og Kína tekur við þeim kyndli í staðinn.

Japan calm as treasured status slips away

 

"While policymakers and business people will hardly be taken by surprise by the statistical re-ordering, Hirotami Murakoshi, a member of the Diet for the ruling Democratic party, says the fall to third place in the GDP stakes will make a deep impression on a wider public less familiar with China’s rapid rise." - "“I think it will have a big effect on Japanese thinking,” he says. “Many people still think of China as the bicycle kingdom.”" - "Of course, China’s rise to GDP second place is much more a function of size than success. Even after three decades of economic expansion, Chinese per capita GDP at market prices is still less than a 10th of that of its eastern neighbour." - "Naoto Kan, deputy prime minister and finance minister..." - "“To give up that status to China . . . to be honest, I do have a certain feeling of regret,” he said."

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Síðan mjög áhugaverð umfjöllun um Kína, þ.e. stöðu hagkerfisins og framtíðarhorfur.

China: No one home

Titillinn vísar til draugabæja, nýbyggðir, þ.e. enginn býr þar enn, sem rísið hafa upp í Kína.

Spurningin er, hvort Kína sé að leggja of mikið undir þannig að þar stefni í hrun með brauki og bramli, eða hvort að vöxtur Kína haldi áfram.

 

""While some regard China as having made forward-looking investments in infrastructure and urban planning that will lay the foundations for a new burst of growth, others fear last year’s recovery is really a mirage based on an investment bubble. It is also a crucial question for the fragile global economy. If China’s rebound were to fizzle, it could easily drag the rest of the world into a double-dip recession."" - "Historical comparisons suggest there is something unprecedented in China’s investment boom. Even before last year’s surge, the Economist Intelligence Unit notes, China’s investment-to-GDP ratio was the same as Thailand’s on the eve of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, or Japan’s at its peak during its high investment phase in the 1960s." - "The second worry from the stimulus is thus that it creates financial bubbles, especially in real estate (see below). Beyond that, the third fear is that the flood of new lending will end up as bad debts. This is particularly the case for local governments, which have been at the heart of most of the infrastructure spending, usually through thousands of specially created investment vehicles funded by bank loans." - "Peng Wensheng, an economist at Barclays Capital in Hong Kong, says sceptics worrying about excessive investment in infrastructure forget that in development terms China is more like Japan of the 1950s and 1960s, not the bubble-era 1980s. In other words, large parts of the country are still in dire need of infrastructure." - "So who is right? The figures are inconclusive but they do suggest China still has some breathing room. If the economy were drowning in overcapacity, there would be a dramatic decline in efficiency and returns on investment, suggesting much slower growth in the future." - "Yet unless the bad debts become an avalanche, China has the ability to absorb a large number of non-performing loans without it undermining the financial system. With $2,400bn in foreign exchange reserves, it can easily recapitalise the banks if they run into problems. Indeed, that is exactly what it did in the early part of the last decade after the main banks became technically insolvent from a previous credit binge."

 

Þ.e. að sjálfsögðu góður punktur, að Kína hefur enn mikið eftir að gagnlegum framkvæmdum eftir, sem koma til með að nýtast seinna. En, hafandi í huga, að hve mikill munur sé á hagþróunar status svæða innan Kína, sé mikið borð fyrir báru enn, fyrir Kína að nota verklegar framkvæmdir til að blása lífi í svæði, sem enn eru vanþróuð. Í Kína sé ekki enn, svo komið, að verið sé að leggja vegi - brír eða járnbrautir, til hvergi.

Síðan,  $2,400 milljarðar dollara, í gjaldeyrisvarasjóði - það sé kappnóg fé, til að endurfjármagna bankakerfið í neyð.

En, á móti kemur eitt atriði sem greinin fjallar ekki um, þ.e. hvað kæmi fyrir Dollarinn, ef Kína seldi svo mikið af þeim bandar. ríkisskuldabréfum er kínv. ríkið á?

 

Kv.

Kv.