Bloggfrslur mnaarins, ma 2011

Rkisstjrn rans, tlar a vernda sitt flk, gegn v a ll hrif vestrns heims, haldi fram a streyma til eirra gegnum Interneti :)

Grein Wall Street Journal, er bi senn hlgileg og grtleg. En, a virist klrt a stjrnvld ran, eru mjg upptekin af, til a verja til ess miklum fjrmunum, barttu gegn hinum - eer - llu syum og gildum, sem a eirra mati eru a menga hugi ungra rana.

essa mengun hugans, veri a stva og a sem allra - allra fyrst!

ranar eru bnir a ba til ntt hugtak - "Softwar".

Iran Vows to Unplug Internet

Eins og g skil run sem er a eiga sr sta ran, er landi undir stjrn Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a rast r v sem hefur veri klerkaveldi .s. r Shia-mslmskra klerka rur nr llu, yfir a vera einsflokks-alrisrki undir stjrn, Byltingavaranna svoklluu.

En, Byltingaverirnir, voru stofnair undir Khomeini, sem nokkurs konar "parallel" her skipair framan-af einkum ungum ltt menntuum en mjg rtkt truum Shia-mslmum. etta voru eir sem hlupu me hrband me letrun r kraninum, hrpandi beint a rlvopnuum hermnnum Saddams, svona "WW1 style".

Byltingavrurinn, bls mjg hratt t strinu vi rak Saddam Hussain, og er sennilega dag sst minna fjlmennur, en hinn eiginlegi her rans.

kvein kaldhni af v, a arna m finna tiltekna hlisjn vi run skalandi nasismans, a SS-sveitirnar blsu t, smm saman uru voldugari en herinn og fyrir rest jafnvel fjlmennari, uru rki innan rkisins.

a er akkrat annig sem Byltingavrurinn hefur rast, .e. etta s ekki SS, er hugavert a sj a Byltingavrurinn, hefur breitt t hrif sn um samflagi, dag fjlda fyrirtkja, rekur snar eigin vopnaverksmijur og rannsknarprgrmm .s. vopn eru ru, er grunaur um a reka sitt eigin "parallel" ran-augunarprgramm - sem sagt - a eirra prgramm s a leyniprgramm sem sraelar telja sig vita um, heldur uppi mjg umfangsmiklu innrtingarprgrammi beint a ungu flki innan flagsmistva sem essi hreyfing rekur.

  1. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad tilheyrir essum dmi, .s. g er a segja, er a Byltingavrurinn s smm saman, a vera yfirsterkari klerkunum, s a taka landi/rki - yfir.
  2. Og hann virist hafa sterka alris-tilhneygingu, .e. Byltingavrurinn.
  3. En, ekki er vst a Mahmoud Ahmadinejad s s sem mestu ri, en Byltingavrurinn hefur einnig sinn formlega yfirmann, s m vera a reynd s s er rur.
  4. Ahmadinejad er samt rugglega ekkert pe!

etta virist einmitt dmigert, a Byltingavrurinn vill vera alls staar, ba til njann her - vera virkur hverju v nju, sem mli geti skipt:

  • "The Revolutionary Guard, a powerful branch of the Iranian security forces, has taken the lead in the virtual fight. In late 2009, the Guard acquired a majority stake of the state telecom monopoly that owns DCI. That put all of Iran's communications networks under Revolutionary Guard control."
  • "The Guard has created a "Cyber Army" as part of an effort to train more than 250,000 computer hackers. It recently took credit for attacks on Western sites including Voice of America, the U.S. government-funded international broadcasting service. And at the telecom ministry, work has begun on a national search engine called "Ya Hagh," or "Oh, Justice," as a possible alternative to popular search engines like Google and Yahoo."

svo, a Byltingavrurinn s sennilega a vera yfirsterkari klerkunum, ir a alls ekki a klerkarnir su hrifalausir ea a rki vintta. vert mti, virist vera sameiginlegt tak gangi, um a verja byltinguna og um lei rkisstjrnina, gegn hinum - eer - llu hrifum:

  • "Since the 2009 protests, the government has ratcheted up its online repression. "Countering the soft war is the main priority for us today," Mr. Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, said November 2009 in a speech to members of the Basij, a pro-government paramilitary volunteer group. "In a soft war the enemy tries to make use of advanced and cultural and communication tools to spread lies and rumors." "

etta er eitt megineinkenni kgunar-rkisstjrna, .e. skynjunin um gnunina a utan. r virast alltaf urfa a eiga vin. A miklu leiti er vinurinn rttlting einmitt rfinni fyrir frelsisskeringu, sem slkar rkisstjrnir telja sig hafa rf fyrir a vihafa. En, hin raunverulega sta er auvita - a kgun er s afer sem slkar rkisstjrnir urfa a vihafa til a halda .s. skiptir llu mli - vldin. Svo vinurinn gegnir v hlutverki plata almenning til a halda, a sta kgunarinnar s einhver nnur en valdaorsti eirra sem stjrna:

  • ""The regime no longer fears a physical attack from the West," said Mahmood Enayat, director of the Iran media program at the University of Pennsylvania's Annenberg School of Communications. "It still thinks the West wants to take over Iran, but through the Internet.""
a arf ekki endilega vera, a stjrnendurnir raunverulega haldi a, heldur verur ttinn vi vininn valdatki.

hugavert a sj ann hp rkja, sem ran er n a slst hp me:

  • "Myanmar said last October that public Internet connections would run through a separate system controlled and monitored by a new government company, accessing theoretically just Myanmar content. It's introducing alternatives to popular websites including an email service, called Ymail, as a replacement for Google Inc.'s Gmail."
  • "Cuba, too, has what amounts to two Internetsone that connects to the outside world for tourists and government officials, and the other a closed and monitored network, with limited access, for public use.
  • "North Korea is taking its first tentative steps into cyberspace with a similar dual network, though with far fewer people on a much more rudimentary system."

Mia vi etta, hfst run ess kerfis, sem til stendur a taka noktun, fljtlega eftir a Ahmadinejad komst til valda. a er merkilegt, v a segir a etta s ekki vibrg vi stdentaeyrum ea nokkru slku, heldur a etta s hluti af lengri tma plani. Og a plan snist mr samhengi vi ara run ran, s sem hluti af v a ra ran yfir einsflokks alrisrki:

  • "The notion of an Iran-only Internet emerged in 2005 when Mr. Ahmadinejad became president. Officials experimented with pilot programs using a closed network serving more than 3,000 Iranian public schools as well as 400 local offices of the education ministry."
  • "The government in 2008 allocated $1 billion to continue building the needed infrastructure. "The national Internet will not limit access for users," Abdolmajid Riazi, then-deputy director of communication technology in the ministry of telecommunications, said of the project that year. "It will instead empower Iran and protect its society from cultural invasion and threats."

etta virist vera trlega metnaarfullt plan, .e. a skipta t Internetinu, fyrir anna me fullri jnustu .e. bloggi - sem er vst vinslt ran en undir smsj stjv. en Kna er me sambrilegt kerfi - leitarvlum sta Google og annarra slkra - og auvita netvafra - og e-mail. Eins og fram kom a ofan, kostnaur upp 1ma. hljmar ekki trlegur. En muna ber, a vegna lgri launa ran, telur slkur milljarur sennilega vi a.m.k. 4-5 slka Bandarkjunum:

  • "Iran is taking steps toward an aggressive new form of censorship: a so-called national Internet that could, in effect, disconnect Iranian cyberspace from the rest of the world."
  • "In February...Reza Bagheri Asl, director of the telecommunication ministry's research institute, told an Iranian news agency that soon 60% of the nation's homes and businesses would be on the new, internal network. Within two years it would extend to the entire country, he said."
  • "Iran's national Internet will be "a genuinely halal (compliant with Islamic law) network, aimed at Muslims on an ethical and moral level," Ali Aghamohammadi, Iran's head of economic affairs, said recently according to a state-run news service."

Engir sm draumar, a kerfi kannski veri rkjandi Internet kerfi heimi Mslima, hah, mia vi hatri milli Shita og Sunni, gti veri sm bi slku. San auvita eftir a koma ljs, hvort etta kerfi s nokku fugl ea fiskur, vi au rautreyndu og notendavnu kerfi, sem vi ll erum orin vn:

  • "Mr. Aghamohammadi said the new network would at first operate in parallel to the normal Internetbanks, government ministries and large companies would continue to have access to the regular Internet."
  • "Eventually, he said, the national network could replace the global Internet in Iran, as well as in other Muslim countries."

etta er sennilega magnaasta tilkynningin, tli a Bill Gates skjlfi :) ?

  • "On Friday, new reports emerged in the local press that Iran also intends to roll out its own computer operating system in coming months to replace Microsoft Corp.'s Windows."
  • "The development, which couldn't be independently confirmed, was attributed to Reza Taghipour, Iran's communication minister."


Niurstaa

Sorgleg run sem er a eiga sr sta ran, en g strlega efast um a, a unga flki borgunum sem vill frelsi, eigi reynd ro vl sem Ahmadinejad og samstarfsmenn, hafa bi til og eru a tbreia. En, v miur eru borgirnar ran ekki ngilega fjlmennar mia vi heildarfjlda eirra sem ba ran. Helmingur flks a.m.k. br enn utan borga.

a er flki, sem hinn rautskipulagi Byltingavrur nr til, sem sr honum fyrir ngum fj. nrra fylgismanna.

Mr snist a ran s lei inn fasa einsflokkskerfis, me mjg umtalsverri kgun. Hve mikilli er ekki gott a segja. En, kgun einsflokkskerfa hefur veri mis alvarleg - allt fr fgakenndu stjrnarfari Rauu Kmera Polt Pots ea Kimmanna N-Kreu, yfir hinum endanum a stjrnarfar sem rkti um 70 r undir stjrn hins svokallaa "Institutional Revolutionary Party" Mexk, sem mjg fljtlega gerist einfaldlega spilltur valdaflokkur, en m eiga a a ausndi lengst af ekki srlega hrkulegt stjrnarfar a.m.k. ekki samanburi vi standard einsflokks stjrnarfars annars staar heiminum.

Kv.


Stefnir tmabundi afnm sjlfstis Grikklands, sbr. inngrip skattheimtu, og mjg umfangsmikla slu rkiseigna, sem strt veri af ailum vegum stofnana ESB?

a er erfitt a tra v sem maur les, Financial Times dag. eir segja a skv. eirra heimildum s loka "desperat" plani fyrir Grikkland a taka sig mynd, samningum milli rkisstjrnar aildarlanda Evrusvis annars vegar og stofnana ESB hinsvegar, ar meal Selabanka sem fram a essu, hefur fyrir sitt leiti tiloka gersamlega hverskonar skuldaendurskipulagningu sem myndi stula a lkkun greislubyri Grikklands.

Greece set for severe bail-out conditions : "European leaders are negotiating a deal that would lead to unprecedented outside intervention in the Greek economy, incluting:

  1. international involvement in tax collection,
  2. and privatisation of state assets,
  3. in exchange for new bail-out loans for Athens.
  4. "...the package would also include incentives for private holders of Greek debt voluntarily to extend Athens repayment schedule, (n ln komi sjlfvirkt sta trunninna)
  5. as well as another round of austerity measures."
  • "Officials hope that as much as half of the 60bn-70bn ($86bn-$100bn) in new financing needed by Athens until the end of 2013 could be accounted for without new loans.
  • Under a plan advocated by some, much of that would be covered by the sale of state assets and the change in repayment terms for private debtholders."

Eitt af v sem er heimta af Grikkjum, er fyrirfram samykki helstu stjrnmlaflokka, agerum.

En, g skaplega erfitt me a mynda mr, a svona plan geti virka - einfaldlega vegna ess a g held a grskur almenningur veri svo brjlaur, a a yrfti a kveja til utanakomandi her til a framfylgja essu.

Svo, g held etta dmi, s dmt til a mistakast - gersamlega.

En t.d. g tel lklegt s a eignirnar muni reynast nrri v eins mikils viri og tali, ef r eru seldar:

  1. verstu kreppu Grikklandi san eftir 1950.
  2. Seldar me svo miklu hrai.
  • En, "firesale" getur auveldlega valdi v a einungis hlfviri fist fyrir eignir, jafnvel minna.
  • Ekki m gleyma, a kreppan hefur minnka mjg miki tiltr Grikklandi, og peningar eru frekar a flja aan en hitt, svo a getur veri nokkur vandi a skapa ngann huga hj fjrfestum, srstaklega ef reynt verur a auka strfellt a magn eigna sem boi veri til slu.

Greece PM fails to win austerity reform backing :"We dont agree with a policy that kills the economy and destroys society, Antonis Samaras, conservative opposition leader, said after a five-hour emergency meeting of party leaders on Friday." - "There is only one way out for Greece, the renegotiation of the [EU/IMF] bailout deal, Mr Samaras added, saying Fridays meeting had reached a dead end."

a vri algert plitskt sjlfsmor fyrir stjrnarandstuna, a gangast inn slka skilmla, og mia vi fyrstu vibrg strsta stjrnarandstuflokksins, virist a ekki lklegt.

Greece set for severe bail-out conditions :

  • "...pressure is building to have a deal done within three weeks because of an IMF threat to withhold its portion of Junes 12bn bail-out payment unless Athens can show it can meet all its financing requirements for the next 12 months."
  • "To bring the IMF back in, the new deal must be reached by a scheduled meeting of EU finance ministers on June 20."
Plani arf a vera tilbi og frgengi fyrir 20. jn nk.

Putting Greece up for auction :"According to Maria Damanaki, Greeces European Union commissioner, the nation may be forced to leave the eurozone and reintroduce the drachma unless it implements the austerity measures and economic reforms demanded by its international creditors."

En, eina alternatvi virist tafarlaust greislurot og skipti yfir drgmu. a er ef til vill atburur sem eiga mun sr sta, egar fyrri hluta jl nk. jafnvel - en ann 29. jn skv. bjrgunarlns pakka AGS a ljka endurskoun sinni stu mla a skipti, og a virist hsta mta lklegt a veri niurstaa AGS a greia ekki t sinn hluta fjrframlags a skipti - svo anna af tvennu ESB veri a setja f a gat ea Grikkland verur greislurota egar - jafnvel.

En mjg mikil trega myndi vera til a redda Grikkjum um vibtarpeninga, meal alildarrkja, veri geti, a vegna httunnar - a au samt lti vaa og reddi essum peningum.

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Orderly Greek restructuring a fairytale - Transcript: Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Herra Smaghi trekar og um lei tskrir andstu Selabanka Evrusvis, vi allar hugmyndir um lkkun greislubyri Grikklands, me hverskonar endurskipulagningu skulda ea lkkun hfustls.

En, mia vi or Smaghi virist ekki neinn sttahugur Selabanka Evrpu.

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: "There is no such thing as an orderly debt restructuring in the current circumstances. It would be a mess. And I havent mentioned contagion which would come on top....It would entail a major economic, social and even humanitarian disaster, within Europe."

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi:"Finally, our position is a position based on principle, not a conflict of interest. In the euro area debts have to be repaid and countries have to be solvent. That has to the principle of a market based economy. The task of other countries is to make sure that they are solvent that was the contract of the Stability and Growth Pact. If any country breach rules, the others should force them back to the rules with sanctions and so forth. It is totally crazy to create incentives for governments not to pay their debts."

Mig grunar a etta s strsta stan! Sem sagt absolt prinsipp a skuldir veri a endurgreia.

Svo, ef yfirkeyrir ig - sekkur r skuldir, borgar r til baka, sama hve erfi rautagangan verur, sama hve mrg r a tekur, sama hve alvarleg hrif a mun hafa samflagi.

Ath. g set allt vitali "1. comment" vi essa bloggfrslu. etta er hugavert vital.

  • "One senior European official involved in the talks, however, said ECB objections could be overcome if the rescheduling was structured properly."

Ofangreind afstaa essa agta embttismanns, gti v veri of bjartsn.

Niurstaa

g s ekki a etta plan eigi raunhfa mguleika. En, .e. ekki einungis andstaa Selabanka Evrusvis (ECB) sem tilokar enn allar hugmyndir um afsltt skuldabyri Grikklands, htar a htta a fjrmagna grsku bankana sem mun tafarlaust framkalla grskt greislurot, kjlfar bankahruns alveg sambrilegs vi bankahruni hrlendis.

Nei, g s ekki a grskur almenningur muni bregast me nokkrum rum htti, en me v a efla til ess sem verur vart miki minna en almenn uppreisn, ef grskir stjrnmlamenn gangast inn a ailar vegum stofnana ESB, fari a stra skattheimtu Grikkandi og slu eigna eigu grska rkisins.

En hjkvmilegt snist mr a r eignir muni fara vel undir matsveri, sem mun magna upp reii almennings. A auki, g erfitt me a tra a stjrnarandstaan muni sj a sr hag, a styja agerir af essu tagi - en formaur strsta flokksins andstu sagi um helgina a hann myndi ekki samykkja agerir sem myndu leia til samflagshruns.

Svo mr snist stand mla vera lei til andskotans, reikna me v a valkostirnir su reynd aeins 2. .e. a aildarrki Evrusvis gefi fullkomlega eftir og lni Grikklandi 60ma. og ekki veri slk inngrip grsk innanrkisml - en slkt virist vantraust gegn Grikklandi ori a etta virist mjg lklegt a n fram a ganga; ea a Grikkland htti Evru, taki upp drgmu, lsi sig greislurota, setji gjaldmiilshft og grska rki rkisvi bankakerfi.

g ver a segja a mia vi ofangreindar upplsingar, virist etta hreinlega orin lklegri tkoman.

g reikna me kjlfari, - ef svaka dkk sp ECB um framhaldi er rtt - , a taki vi mjg alvarleg bankakreppa Evrpu og jafnvel gjaldmilskreppa.

----------------

Spurningin sem eftir er, er fyrst og fremst um tmasetningu. En, ef ESB rki bjarga Grikkjum ann 29. jn nk. getur "deadline" dregist ef til vill um rmt hlft r. M vera a a s lklegri tkoman, a vali veri a bjarga Grikkjum um fjrmgnun, veikri von um a eitthvert kraftaverk leysi mli. En san veri Grikkland endanum rota annahvort rtt fyrir rslok ea rtt eftir, og komi salbunan eins og hn leggur sig Evrusvi og innan bankakerfis Evrpu.

Kv.


Hafa eldgosin lagfrt mynd slands?

g rakst strskemmtilega umfjllun um sland vef the Economist. En tengslum vi etta er hugavert a velta fyrir sr hrifum eldgosanna mynd slands. En, rtt er a muna a tlendingar almennt s hugsa ekki mjg oft til okkar lands, og .e. sjaldan frttum. annig, a ef tlendingar velta slandi yfirleitt fyrir sr, er a lklegt a byggjast eirri umfjllun sem er njust.

Er sland mipunktur umru Evrpu?

slendingar hafa veri a.m.k. sumir hverjir mjg hrddir vi slma mynd, sem eir telja a sland hafi fengi kjlfar umfjllunar erlendum fjlmilum um bankakreppuna sem var hrlendis og san Icesave deiluna.

  1. a fyrsta er a muna, er a s umfjllun var fyrst og fremst vikurnar eftir 20. oktber 2008 ea svo, egar liti er til Evrpu heild, fyrir utan Bretland og Holland, var ekki kja mikil fjlmilaumfjllun um Icesave.
  2. annig a augum evrpumanna va um evrpu, var hruni sjlft ofar huga, og kannski frekar sam me almenningi a hafa ori fyrir essu.
  3. Sem sagt fyrst og fremst Bretlandi og Hollandi, .s. gtt hefur a einhverju leiti hugsunarinnar, glpalurinn slendingar.
  4. San, gleymist krsan slandi nokkurn veginn alveg egar krsan Grikklandi hefst, og menn fara a velta sr upp r vanda nr heimahgum, .e. Evrunnar og Evrpu sjlfrar.
  5. Jafnvel Bretlandi og Hollandi, eru deilur vi sland lngu - lngu httar a vera forsufrttir.

Sannleikurinn er s, a Evrpa er ekki a farast t af einhverri rttltri reii tengslum vi meinta glpsamlega hegun slendinga - .s. kom fyrir hr, s einfaldlega ekki svo veigamiki atrii augum flestra tlendinga, hyggjur seinni tma .e. vegna Evrunnar, Grikklands, rlands og Portgals, san vegna Grikklands aftur - hafi almennt s frt okkar ml gleymskunnar d. Ef nefnt er ori efnahagskrsa, mun flk vast hvar Evrpu detta hug nafn Grikklands.

a m segja a vi njtum ess, hve augleymd vi erum - sland er svo lti og ltt mikilvgt, a .s. hr gerist fljtt verur a aukaatrii, dettur r mynni - gleymist.

g skal segja a svo - a mr finnst a hreint gtt, a flk muni ekki eftir okkur - almennt s!

Sannleikurinn s s:

  • a sem ferskt er huga flks um sland eru frttir af eldgosi - annig a egar flestir Evrpumenn hugsa n til slands og slendinga, er a eldgos og skufall, sem sennilega kemur fyrst hugann.
  • g skal segja a, a etta er gott - m segja a Eyjafjallajkull hafi gert okkur strgreia.
  • En gosi fyrra, hratt af sta mestu fjlmilaumfjllun um atbur slandi - .s. nafn slands kom fram frtt eftir frtt, llum helstu fjlmilum Evrpu og Bandarkjanna, og a samfellt r cirka 2. vikur sem gosi var a trufla flug - sennilega allri slandssgunni.
  • g er a segja a etta taki Reykjavkurfundinum milli Reagan og Gorba fram, en s st bara yfir helgi, og san datt sland mjg fljtt aftur t r linsu aljlegu pressunnar.
  • N aftur etta r, fr sland umfjllun helstu fjlmilum Evrpu og Bandarkjunum, aftur t af gosi, ekki eins lengi - en etta er aftur grarleg kynning slandi, reynd.

Grein the Economist: Come to Iceland! ----------------------------------------------

ICELANDAIR, the island nation's national carrier, has been quick to put on a happy face in the wake of this week's eruption of the Grimsvotn volcano. On Thursday, the airline sent out a press release to journalists encouraging coverage of the crisisand the clean-up operation. "Most of the country," Icelandair assured us, has been "totally unaffected by the volcanic ash." In fact, the airline seems to be encouraging foreigners to visit the country as soon as possible, lest they miss out on seeing the ashor the slowly subsiding eruptionfirst-hand:

Curious visitors have already begun to flock to the area, eager to check out the affected area and see the ash for themselves. However, they will have to hurry because the efficient ash clean-up operation is already progressing quickly and local residents hope life in the southeast will be back to normal very soon.

Visits to the crater are not yet allowed, as the eruption has yet to be officially declared finished. But enterprising tour companies are already planning to take advantage of Icelands newest geological wonder.

Eyjafjallajokull the star volcano of 2010 is also in South Iceland and tourists have been able to visit that since last summer. It is still one of the most popular tours on offer today and an Eyjafjallajokull museum even opened on the eruptions first anniversary.

Furthermore, Keflavik International Airport, Icelandairs main hub, has reopened and all flights have resumed to normal until further notice.

Although Icelandic volcano eruptions cause problems for Europe's other airlines, no carrier has it worse than Icelandair. Airlines never like to see their home airports closed, their planes grounded, and their main destinations unreachable. But there's not much Icelandair can do to stop a volcano from erupting. So it makes a lot of sense that the airline would try to turn what seems to be a major liability into a business opportunity.

With the collapse of its economy in the financial crisis, Iceland is less of a destination for business travellers than it once was. But ecotourism is still a big businessand one with lots of potential. Iceland has whale-watching, hiking, glaciers, and, of course, volcanoes. The Eyjafjallajokull and Grimsvotn eruptions caused problems for Icelandair and Iceland overall. But they also ensured that Iceland would be in the news all over Europe and North America for weeks in both 2010 and 2011. That's no small feat.

The saying is that "there's no such thing as bad publicity." But we might not even need it here: the publicity from the volcanic eruptions hasn't been particularly bad. Yes, people have had their flights cancelled. But no planes have fallen out of the sky, and evacuations and other local problems caused by the eruptions haven't been the focus of the news coverage.

Instead, when non-Icelandic media cover the eruptions, they tend to use pictures and video that make the volcanoes look coollike something you might want to see for yourself. That's a lot of free media, and a lot of people who will be thinking about Iceland who might not have otherwise. There's a reason that cable news shows like to air shots of forest fires and tornadoes, and it's not just because television executives are concerned about the people endangered by natural disasters. Producers know that people like to watch that sort of thing. Volcanoes get eyeballs. Icelandair is betting that if they offer folks a chance to see the real thing up close, a bunch of people might take them up on it. It's a good bet.

This blog has covered disaster recovery before, and I'm wary of straying too close to the broken windows fallacy. But the Eyjafjallajokull and Grimsvotn eruptions scored Iceland many times more news mentions internationally than anything else in the country's recent history. Is it really so crazy to bet, as Icelandair has, that the eruptions might rebound in Iceland's favour? After all, being known for natural beauty (and danger) is better than being known as a (failed) "Wall Street on the Tundra," right?

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Niurstaa

a verur a segjast eins og er, a eftir Eyjafjallajkulsgosi srstaklega og n nja umfjllun um gos slandi, hefur mjg sennilega strfellt dregi r lkum ess, a egar nafn slands kemur fram prenti og umru, s flk a hugsa til slands einhverjum neikvum tn.

Flk Evrpu dag, er miklu meir uppteki af daglegum vandamlum nr snum heimahgum, og fyrir utan Bretland og Holland, mjg lklegt almennt s til a hafa ekkingu v hverju ori "Icesave" tengist. Jafnvel Bretlandi og Hollandi, er a sennilega ekki nema hluti af almenningi, sem nokku hefur fylgst me eirri deilu ea hefur skoun henni.

  • Punkturinn er s, a sland skiptir svo litlu mli.

annig, a .e. mjg lklegt eins og sumir hafa veri a halda fram, a Evrpa standi ndinni af einhverri hneyxlan, a vi borguum ekki Icesave eins og sumir segja. Reyndar hefur gtt nokkurrar jkvrar hugsunar v tengdu, en t.d. hefur ess vst gtt nokku, a Spni su mtmlendur strtum og torgum essar vikurnar a veifa slenska fnanum, og essi hugavera mynd var byrt blogginu hans Egils Helgasonar .s. einhver Spnverji hafi sett upp sl. fnann, annig a stitta af spnskri hetju hlt honum.

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g held a heilt yfir, hafi gosin veri g fyrir sland, einmitt vegna ess a au spa deilunum sem sland ur tengdist, undir teppi gleymsku.

au astoa a ferli gleymsku um atburi sem vi viljum gleyma, svo a tlendingar tengja sland einhverju ru, og hugsa frekar egar eir lta hugann reika a slkum vandamlum, um nnur lnd.

En eins og g sagi upphafi, .s. fir Evrpu hugsa oft til okkar, eru Evrpubar lklegir til a tengja landi eirri umfjllun sem eir su sast.

Og lang-umfangsmesta umfjllun erlendum fjlmilum um sland sgunni tengist eldgosi og eldsumbrotun, og a styrkir mynd sem vi hfum vilja halda lofti - sland sem land vintranna - strfenglegrar nttru; land feramennsku.

g spi v, a essi mikla umfjllun muni skila auknum straumi feramanna hinga bi fr N-Amerku og Evrpu, allra nstu rum.

Kv.


Bindum enda kyrrstuna hagkerfinu! Mguleg lei, ltum sjina efla hagkerfi sta ess a bla a!

"Raunvxtun lfeyrissja neikv um 2,4 prsent sl. fimm r!" etta kemur fram tlum Landssamtaka Lfeyrissja, en etta skilur eftir sig umtalsvert gat hj sjunum sem urfa 3,5% mealrs-raunvxtun, til a standa undir skuldbindingum.

Raunvxtun lfeyrissja neikv um 2,4 prsent sustu fimm rin

g tla samt ekki a tala um etta tap, heldur velta ru upp .e. samhenginu vi hruni.

  • Mli er, a egar bankakerfi hrynur verur samanburi vi vermti jarframleislu dollar 40% minnkun!
  • N er mld minnkun raunvermta lfeyriskerfisins samanburinum, einungis 2,4%.
  • etta ir a umfang kerfisins sem hlutfalls af jarframleislu hefur aukist! En ef jarframleislan minnkar mun meir af raunvermti er etta tkoman. Og etta er str aukning.
  • Punkturinn er s, a a er hagkerfi sjlft .e. heilsa ess og geta til a standa undir skuldbindingum, sem er hin raunverulega trygging ess a sjirnir geti greitt lfeyri.
  • Vi hruni var grarleg hkkun/aukning eirra skuldbindinga sem almennir skattgreiendur og atvinnulfi arf a standa undir - og a ir a almenningur og fyrirtki hafa minna handa milli til allra hluta, ar meal til a fjrfesta nju.
  • essi grarlega aukning skuldbindinga sem lfeyriskerfi er hluti af, ln eru annar - er rugglega str hluti skringar ess, a innlend fjrfesting er um essar mundir s minnsta san eftir seinna str.

Heildartkoman er efnhagsleg kyrrstaa - mjg skert geta til hagvaxtar; ef essu er ekki breytt me einhverri strri ager, er nnast eina vonin til nokkurrar hreyfingar, erlend fjrfesting.

g er eiginlega a segja, a skuldbindingar hagkerfinu su of miklar - ekki sst r innlendu; mean nverandi kyrrstustand rkir.

Annahvort arf a lkka r skuldbindingar, ea skapa ann hagvxt sem til arf svo standi gegnum aukningu tekna smm saman veri lttbrara

Verum a lkka raunvxtunarrf sjanna 2%

Varandi lfeyriskerfi, verum vi sennilega a lkka vxtunarkrfu, en tjni sem ori er verur ekki unni upp, nema me v a auka skuldbindingar skattgreiendur enn meir, en n er egar ori. etta vi ef menn tla a standa vi nverandi fyrirkomlag sjanna.

Ef mealvxtun er hinsvegar lkku 2%, mun ekki urfa eins miki vibtar f. etta ir mannamli, a skera arf rttindi til a samsvara eirri vxtun. egar er bi a kvea a hkka igjld 15% af launatekjum. Lengra verur ekki gengi um a.

A auki, er 3,5% krafan mjg erfi, en til ess a hn gangi upp, arf eiginlega 3,5% mealhagvxt per ratug. a v miur hefur ekki ori san eftir a 9. ratugnum lauk. Ekki er tlit fyrir nstunni, a unnt veri a triggja hagvxt eim slum.

2% krafan er mun auveldari fyrir hagkerfi. A auki, geta sjirnir fjrfest ruggari ttum og/ea brfum, enda er umalfingursreglan s a v ruggari sem fjrfestingarkostur er v lgri vexti borgar s kostur, 2% regla myndi a a sjirnir vru a kaupa til mikilla muna ruggari hlutum, sem tti a minnka httu tpum.

A lokum, halda sjirnir hr uppi vaxtastigi. En, ein byrtingamynd 3,5% krfunnar, og vxlverkun vi hruni og hft. Er a sjirnir geta ekki flutt f r landi fjrfest a erlendis. eir sitja n uppi me rml. 200ma.kr. sem eir geta ekki ntt til nokkurs hlutar.

En, eir geta ekki ntt a f til fjrfestinga, vegna ess a innlendar fjrfestingar atvinnulfi, geta ekki tryggt 3,5% vxtun.

Hvernig kfir 3,5% reglan hagkerfi!

lafur Margeirsson, hagfringur: Hvernig kfir 3,5% reglan hagkerfi?

  • Eins og sst af tflunni sem lafur Margeirsson tk saman, einungis 2. af samanburarrum nr atvinnulfi hr, a veita raun-vxtun upp 3,5% ea meir eiginf.
  • etta er sta ess, a sjirnir sitja me hendur skauti me sna lilega 200ma. a hin lgbundna krafa, sem leiir til 3,5% raunvxtunar arfar eirra, gerir eim kleyft a nta etta f til fjrfestinga hr innanlands.

Svo lokapunkturinn er, a ef krafan er lkku 2% - sji a 2% krafa er sjlfbr skv. ofangreindum tlum - geta sjirnir lagt a f sem eir hafa og um essar mundir geta ekki ntt, fjrfestingar innlendu atvinnulfi.

annig skapa strf - annig skapa hagvxt - annig stula a v a bundi s endir deyf atvinnulfinu sem n rkir.

Vandinn er einfaldlega a innlennt f situr fast vegna laga sem verur a breita og a stundinni.

A auki, mun essi lkkun einnig skila sr til bankanna, en sjirnir eru eirra aal fjrmgnunarlei, svo um lei og sjirnir treysta sr til a fjrmagna 2% raun-vxtum en ekki 3,5% tti a a skila sr bilinu 1-2% lkkun raunvaxta tlna fr bankakerfinu einnig.

annig gert ailum mgulegt a nta a mikla magn af innlnsf sem n er til, til tlna. En, g vil meina a 3,5% reglan s einnig a valda v a bankaln su of dr mia vi nverandi stand.

Hugsi ykkur, hve mikil innspting a vri atvinnulfi ef ekki einungis lilega 200ma. sjanna komast vinnu heldur yfir 1.000ma af innlnum.

essi fjrfesting arf auvita einkum a vera tflutningi. En, mr snist a bara ef raunvxtunarrf sjanna er lkku mun raunhfari 2% - sem ir lkkun rttinda. Svo a s algerlega hreinu. vri unnt a binda enda kreppuna hrlendis.

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Bendi a auki, a essi raunvaxtalkkun lna, myndi einnig skila sr til almennings, lkka eirra kostna jafnvel meir en svokllu 20% lei Framsknarflokksins.

Niurstaa

g er a segja a ein ltil breyting, geti laga alveg trlega miki.

Vandinn er a baki, standa mjg flugir hagsmunaaila .e. sjirnir og a auki eir gamblarar sem hafa noti ess fjr sem fr eim hefur komi. eir munu berjast gegn breytingunni.

a mun vera ja a v, a maur s vondur vi lfeyrisega.

En mli er a atrii sem llu mli skiptir a sjlbrni sjanna, eirra greisla sem fr eim koma, standa og falla me heilsu hagkerfisins.

Skv. nverandi standi eru sjirnir yngjandi mein hagkerfinu, sem gna stu ess vaxandi mli, en annig arf a all ekki a vera. vert mti eiga eir a jna okkur llum.

v standi er reynd sra einfalt a endurreisa, en s endurreisn felst v a gera samhengi sjanna og landsins heilbrigt n. Til ess arf einungis eina grunnbreytingu sem llu breytir.

Kv.


Hugsanlega, en lklega ekki, getur Grikkland ori greislurota fljtlega eftir 29. jn nk.

Mli er, a AGS hefur sagt a stofnunin s stt vi stu prgramms AGS og Evrpusambandsins Grikklandi. Einkum, a grska rkisstjrnin hafi ekki a eirra mati stai sig ngilega vel, v a minnka halla og selja rkiseignir til a minnka skuldir.

European Premier Says Greek Aid Is in Question

  • Grikkland fr greitt t prgramminu lotum "tranche" - starfsmenn AGS hafa tilkynnt a ef niurstaa endurskounar sem n er gangi veri neikv, muni nsta greisla fr AGS ekki berast.
"The fund's actual spokeswoman, Caroline Atkinson, said Thursday in Washington that the fund generally doesn't lend if there are gaps in financing, and that it was seeking reassurance on financing from the euro-zone countries that also are lending to Greece."
  • .s. AGS sr um 1/3 af fjrmgnun heildarbjrgunarpakkans, myndi Grikkland einungis f 2/3 .e. ann hluta sem bjrgunarsjur ESB veitir.
  • Frilega getur etta leitt til fjrskorts grska rkisins, greislurots eftir 29. jn nk.
  • En, mjg sennilega munu aildarlnd ESB fylla etta skar - ef reynir.
"Jean-Claude Juncker...suggested Thursday that an important review of the bailout program might conclude that the amounts pledged to Greece aren't enough to carry it through the next 12 months." - ""If the Europeans realize that the IMF disbursement can't operatively happen before June 29, then the expectation of the IMF is that the Europeans will take the place of the IMF," Mr. Juncker said, stressing that he wasn't the IMF's spokesman."
  • a getur ori eitthvert plitskt drama meal fylgirkja ESB, og einnig innan stofnana ESB, egar hlminn er komi - srstaklega ef hefur ekki enn nst samkomulag um hvernig a leysa vandaml Grikklands.

En, hatrmm deila um a, hvernig a leysa vanda Grikklands, hefur n stai yfir innan stofnana ESB samfellt 2. vikur.

Hn er alvarleg, vegna ess a s deila er a magna upp tta og ra mrkuum, gagnvart llum S-Evrpurkjum innan Evrusvis, en veruleg hkkun var skuldatryggingalagi skv. tlum fr sl. mnudegi.

Bloomberg, 23-05-2011: Corporate Bond Risk Rises in Europe, Credit-Default Swaps Show

......................................CDS - staan sl. mnudag .e. 23/5.

  1. Grikkland............1.377
  2. rland....................661
  3. Portgal.................661
  4. Spnn....................277
  5. tala......................177
  6. Belga.....................161
  7. Eurozone................216
  • Sbr. CDS slands ann 19/5 210 punktar.

fstudag 27/5 hafa allar essar tlur hkka aftur, ekki strt - en s hkkun snir a tti markai, fer vaxandi - essi deila milli hfustofnana ESB er v a skapa stugt vaxandi skynjun httu og gn, meal aila hinum frjlsa markai.

  • Grunnvandinn er s, a skv. rannskn fjrrf grska rkisins, arf vibtar 60ma. a llu breittu, til a tryggja frestun greisluroti Grikklands t 2013.
  • Deilan milli stofnana ESB .e. Rherrars og ings vs. Selabanka Evrpu, snst um hvernig a fara a v, a fresta vandanum a.m.k. t 2013.
  1. Selabanki Evrpu, vill a Grikkland fi vibtarln, segir skuldbreytingu ekki koma til greina, slkt s alltof httusamt - geti opna Pandrubox sem leitt geti til mun vtkari vandra. ECBs Noyer Rejects Greek Restructuring as Horror: Transcript
  2. meal hinna, er mikill stuningur fyrir lausn, sem myndi byggjast v a greisludgum myndi einfaldlega vera fresta og vextir lkkair. A auki er miki rtt um svokalla "soft restructuring" ea "voluntary restructuring". Raui rurinn er s, a hin rkin eru mrg hver mjg treg til a henda meiri peningum .s. eim finnst vera a rast botnlausa ht.

gr kom fram stuningur sku rkisstjrnarinnar vi afstu Selabanka Evrpu - og g bjst vi v a myndi sennilega Selabankinn f sitt fram - en engar frttir eru um a a samkomulag hafi nst n fstudag 27/5.

Svo klrlega eru n komnar 2. vikur af "standoff" ea pattstu.

v lengur sem etta heldur fram, v httulegra veur standi.

Fleiri flkjur eru gangi!

  • a st til a styrkja bjrgunarsj Evrpu - htleg lofor voru gefin t janar sl. um a a samkomulag yri tilbi aprl sl., en var mlinu fresta til nk. jn sem n er vi a a renna upp.
  • A auki, var einnig fresta a ganga fr v akkrat hvernig nsti bjrgunarsjur ESB, sem taka vi 2013, skal fjrmagnaur. Tiltekin lofor hafa veri gefin, en eftir er a negla niur hvernig akkrat eim loforum skal hrint framkv. essu var einnig fresta til jn nk.
  • a er ljst, a stefnir spennurunginn jn.
How safe is Eurozone sovereign debt? table
Country
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
Debt on issue*
Austria
AAA
Aaa
AAA
$281bn
Belgium
AA+
Aa1
AA+
$455bn
Cyprus
A-
A2
AA-
$16bn
Estonia
A
A1
A
$0bn
Finland
AAA
Aaa
AAA
$106bn
France
AAA
Aaa
AAA
$1,894 trillion
Germany
AAA
Aaa
AAA
$1.624 trillion
Greece
B
B1
B+
$394bn
Ireland
BBB+
Baa3
BBB+
$131bn
Italy
A+
Aa2
AA-
$2,246 trillion
Luxembourg
AAA
Aaa
AAA
$6bn
Malta
A
A1
A+
$6bn
Netherlands
AAA
Aaa
AAA
$436bn
Portugal
BBB-
Baa1
BBB-
$189bn
Slovakia
A+
A1
A+
$38bn
Slovenia
AA
Aa2
AA
$20bn
Spain
AA
Aa2
AA+
$807bn

**"trillion" er 1000ma. svo skuldir talu skv. v eru 2.246ma.$.

Eitt meginvandaml vi bjrgunarkerfi nverandi, er a til ess a sjurinn sjlfur haldi "AAA" einkunn, getur hann reynd aeins lna f fr rkjum sem sjlf hafa "AAA" einkunn.

Httan er s, a eftir v sem fleiri ln eru veitt gegnum kerfi, geti a stula a v a lnd me AAA einkunn sem veita r baktryggingar, missi AAA einkunn sna.

En Standard&Poors hefur vara t.d. Frakkland vi v, a hugsanlegt s a landi veri frt yfir neikvar horfur, en ekki er mjg langt san a S&P setti Bandrkin neikvar horfur.

Bjrgunarkerfi grefur undan fjrhagslegum stugleika eirra rkja, sem tt taka fjrmgnun ess.

etta getur virkilega reynt, ef skuldatryggingalag Spnar heldur fram hkkunarferli, og markaurinn fer a beina sjnum snum a Spni me svipuum htti og hann ur hefur gert gagnvart Grikklandi, Portgal og rlandi; en hagkerfi Spnar er strra en hagkerfi eirra landa samanlagt.

a er v ekki af stulausu sem margir segja a trverugleiki Evrunnar standi og falli me trverugleika Spnar.

Lesi eftirfarandi:

What Would a Greek Haircut Mean for Germany?

In Standoff Over Greece, Will ECB Have to Fold?

Niurstaa

Evrukrsan hefur magnast upp n, og aftur er a Grikkland .s. hn hfst . Vi btist san ein s versta deila milli hfustofnana ESB sem sst hefur.

S deila stefnir n , a hefji sna 3. viku nk. mnudag.

Kv.


Otmar Issing, selabankastjri Evrpu fr 1998-2006, segir Grikkland gjaldrota, og mjg lklegt um a endurgreia snar skuldir a fullu!

Otmar Issing, Selabankastjri Evrusvis fr 1998-2006, sem fyrsti selabankastjri Evrusvis, ntur enn mikillar viringar og hafa or hans enn umtalsvera vikt.

Bloomberg: Greece Is Insolvent, Unlikely to Honor Debt, ECB Economist Issing Says

Issing: "While it is not physically impossible for Greece to honor its obligations, repayment is unlikely,...The regions debt crisis, which has also forced Ireland and Portugal to seek bailouts, has left the euro in a critical condition, Issing said." - Im skeptical about Greece, said Issing,...Greece is not just illiquid, its insolvent.

.e. dltill contrast orum Issing, og orum Christian Noyer, sem er stjrn Selabanka Evrpu fyrir hnd Frakklands, og Selabankastjri Frakklands.

Bloomberg: ECBs Noyer Rejects Greek Restructuring as Horror: Transcript

Noyer: If we restructure Greek debt, that means Greece defaults. - And what are the consequences of a default? The banks with the most Greek bonds are Greek banks. The Greek banks themselves will be badly damaged. When the banking system is stricken, what do you have to do to prevent the financing of the economy from collapsing? You have to recapitalize the banks. Who will recapitalize the Greek banking system? The Greek state. - That means the Greek state will gain nothing. It will invest in the banking sector everything that it has gained in the restructuring.

g ver a mtmla essum orum hans, en ef grskir bankar munu falla ir s stareynd ekki a skulda-afskrift s tilgangslaus, heldur ir slkt a s afskrift arf a gera r fyrir kostnainum vi a a endurreisa bankakerfi.

etta er rugglega af hverju Barclays metur rf afskrift 67% en ekki 50%.

WolfgangSchaeuble, fjrmlarherra skalands tk undir or Neuer:

"The risk of contagion (of such measures) would be far too severe at this point and it would be the task of politicians to avoid any further intensification of the current debt crisis, he stated, according to Handelsblatt. We believe that todays interview is key for markets in that it shows that politicians in charge of the matter in Germany, namely Chancellor A Merkel and Finance Minister W Schaeuble, remain opposed to a rescheduling for the time being."

"Reflecting on the sharp criticism emerging out of the ECB when German ECB board member J Stark and Bundesbank President and Governing Council member J Weidmann staunchly opposed any reprofiling or rescheduling plans for Greece because of contagion risks, Mr Schaeuble argued that Germany had always fared well in respecting the independence of the central bank, thereby suggesting, in our view, that the German government would not want to risk an open conflict with the ECB. In this context Mr Schaeuble argued that a rescheduling would have draconian consequences for the Greek financial system and such an exercise would constitute an experiment, as one has no experience with such an event in a monetary union."

etta ir sjlfsagt, a rkisstjrn skalands, er bin a kvea a fylgja lnu Selabanka Evrpu!

European Premier Says Greek Aid Is in Question

Jean-Claude Juncker: "International Monetary Fund may withhold its payment next month on Greece's 110 billion (about $155 billion) bailout, forcing Europe to scramble to plug the gap." - "Jean-Claude Juncker...suggested Thursday that an important review of the bailout program might conclude that the amounts pledged to Greece aren't enough to carry it through the next 12 months." - ""If the Europeans realize that the IMF disbursement can't operatively happen before June 29, then the expectation of the IMF is that the Europeans will take the place of the IMF," Mr. Juncker said, stressing that he wasn't the IMF's spokesman." - "The fund's actual spokeswoman, Caroline Atkinson, said Thursday in Washington that the fund generally doesn't lend if there are gaps in financing, and that it was seeking reassurance on financing from the euro-zone countries that also are lending to Greece." - "Because the IMF provides about a quarter of the funding, the euro zone's contribution would tide it over for a few months while European leaders debate additional financing."

etta er hugaverur vinkill - en etta snist mr a, a Grikkland lendi peningaurr mnuum fyrr, en tali hefur veri fram a essu, eir peningar sem ESB hefur tvega dugi tiltekinn fj. mnaa til vibtar mia vi daginn dag. En klrt, a peningarnir klrast ekki nsta ri, heldur mun fyrr.

etta setur meiri pressu fulltra Evrusvisins, a komast a niurstu.

  • Langlklegasta niurstaan virist vera, fyrst a rkisstjrn skalands hefur tala, a Grikklandi veri lna 60ma. til vibtar, sem duga eigi sem fullfjrmgnun t 2013.
  • Spurning er mti, hve miki af eignum grska rkisins vera seldar mti skuldum.

Tvr hugmyndir hafa komi fram, hugmynd rkisstjrnar Finnlands ea fjrmlarherra Hollands, Jan Kees de Jager.

  1. Finnska leiin, a grskar rkiseignir veri frar yfir sameiginlegt eignarhaldsflag eigu grska rkisin, og san veri a flag heild ve mti lnum.
  2. Hollenska leiin, a grskar rkiseignir veri frar yfir umsjn srfringahps, sem aildarlnd Evrusvis myndu skipa.

Mr lst alls ekki lei, Jan Kees de Jager, fjrmlarherra Hollands, vegna ess a g er ess fullviss, a egar muni reyna, muni miki minna fst fyrir r eignir en skr viri segir til um.

g rakst gott comment netinu:

"Perhaps the reluctance to privatizations is because most of these businesses are in a total mess, basically insolvent without the support of the state, with IOUs in every draw. They'd need a radical overhaul, drastic cuts in staff etc etc. The government knows this will lead to further rounds of strikes, protests etc.

Frankly, it is questionable whether there is any equity in them at all...."

etta er hugaveri punktur, kannski rttur - g ef engan mguleika til a baktkka etta - en mr myndi ekki koma vart, a ef a.m.k. etthva er til essu.

  • nnur bending, er a lklegt s a eignirnar muni reynast nrri v etta mikils viri, ef r eru seldar -
  1. verstu kreppu Grikklandi san eftir 1950.
  2. Seldar me svo miklu hrai.
  • En, "firesale" getur auveldlega valdi v a einungis hlfviri fist fyrir eignir, jafnvel minna.
  • Ekki m gleyma, a kreppan hefur minnka mjg miki tiltr Grikklandi, og peningar eru frekar a flja aan en hitt, svo a getur veri nokkur vandi a skapa ngann huga hj fjrfestum, srstaklega ef reynt verur a auka strfellt a magn eigna sem boi veri til slu.
  • g er v ess nsta fullviss, a ekki fist nndar nrri upp skuldir Grikklands reynd, gegnum eignaslu.
  • g held einnig, a Jager alvarlega vanmeti, hversu brjlaur grskur almenningur yri, ef slk ager yri framkv. af tlendum ailum og tala ekki um ef eignirnar vru a fara langt undir matsveri - en g bendi a kringum 2000 neyddist forseti Argentnu, a flja yrlu fr forsetahllinni. g held a Grikkir su fullt eins blheitir og Argentnumenn.


Niurstaa

Mr snist a stofnanir ESB su a nlgast stt um brabyrgalausn vandamli Grikklands, .s. ln verur veitt a upph 60ma. ofan fyrra 110ma. ln.

reynd er etta ekki lausn, heldur a ta vandanum fram.

Grikkland muni samykkja frekari niurskuraragerir.

Leitast veri vi a triggja a mjg umtalsver sala eigna grska rkisins fari fram, til a lkka skuldastuna, svo aildarrkin endanum muni tapa minna f - loks egar a v kemur a a arf raunverulega a skera niur skuldir Grikklands.

-----------------------

Ekki er unnt a sl v fstu a etta veri. En Merkel getur lent vanda Sambandsinginu, srstaklega ef skora yki upp trverugleika tta eins og eigna-slu-plansins ea a ekki yki ngilega tryggt a Grikkir muni raunverulega framkvma ngan niurskur.

En, Grikkir eru sannarlega vsir til a lofa llu fgru, til a f peninginn, en san veri lti r efndum.

Augljslega mun traust markaa Grikkandi hrapa enn meir.

Kv.


Af hverju varar aalhagfringur Selabanka Evrpu Juergen Stark vi v, a ef skuldbreitt er fyrir Grikkland geti a leitt til gjaldrots Selabankans?

stan er s, a Selabanki Evrpu hefur ori samtmis ein allsherjar vottavl fyrir llega pappra fr Evrpska bankakerfinu, og reddari rkja vanda - egar allt um rtur; etta btist ofan hans vanalegu skildu a vera reddari banka egar allt um rtur.

Graphic: ECB Financial Guarantees

Ein alrmdasta kvrunin, sennilega er kvrun sem tekin var 2010, a heimila bnkum Grikklandi, rlandi og Portgal; a nta fram skuldabrf rkja sinna sem baktryggingu vegna lna fr Selabanka Evrpu. En a var brot lgum um ECB.

annig hefur ECB eignast miki magn af rkisskuldabrfum rkjanna vanda. En lgum um ECB skv. er honum banna a taka vi papprum sem standast ekki tiltekna gavottun.

En, a auki hefur ECB gegnum selabanka hinna msu aildarrkja teki sig, gnar upphir af afleium, fr bnkum sem urftu neyarln.

Sji hva afleiur reikningi Selabanka Evrpu hafa aukist miki fr 2008! Ath - raua svi!

ECB's Balance Sheet Contains Massive Risks

Samkvmt v sem fram kemur greininni, voru afleiur efnahagsreikningi ECB:

  • 480ma. vi upphaf essa rs.
  • 2010 var aukning um litlar 292ma..
  • Heildarmagn afleia Evrusvinu og Bretlandi eru essu ri litlar 1.800ma..

Graphic: Liabilities in the ECB System

Til hgri m sj skiptingu eigna reikningi ECB, sem honum hefur skotnast gegnum starfsemi starfandi tiba hans Grikklandi, rlandi, Portgal og Spni.

  • etta eru dg upph allt allt: 343,1ma..

Vntanlega inniber essi upph, einnig rkisskuldabrf sem bankar starfandi eim rkjum, hafa afhent ECB sem mtvgi vi skammtmaln fr ECB, svo eirra starfsemi leggist ekki af.

Sem sagt ekki afleiur nema a hluta!

Eurozone: Frankfurts dilemma :

"The bank also owns about 45bn of Greek government bonds, acquired during the past year as part of efforts to calm financial market tensions." - "It also has on its books perhaps 150bn in other financial assets put up as collateral by Greek banks, much of which is backed by Athens."

  • "Although accounting together for only about 5 per cent of eurozone gross domestic product, Greek, Irish and Portuguese banks today take about 242bn of ECB liquidity 55 per cent of that provided to the eurozone financial system. "
  • "The ECB stipulation that it provide liquidity only to solvent banks against adequate collateral has been pushed to the limit."
  • "JPMorganChase calculates that, with 81bn in capital and reserves, eurozone central banks could withstand even a 50 per cent haircut, or discount, on Greek bonds."
  • "But if writedowns on Portuguese and Irish bonds followed, eurozone governments might be forced to provide billions of euros to rebuild the ECBs balance sheet."

"According to one view, the ECB has been caught by the consequences of actions it took a year ago. They are basically trapped. They are now like many people in the banking system in calling out for no debt repudiation because they are so exposed, says Charles Wyplosz of the Graduate Institute in Geneva."

  • "The ECB fears an orderly restructuring would be hard, if not impossible, to pull off and would risk triggering a bigger, far more damaging Greek default."
  • "If Greece does head towards restructuring, the ECBs only hope will be that its cataclysmic warnings were wrong."

essari grein Wall Street Journal, bygg upplsingum fr Moodys er tlista hva Moodys telur a muni gerast, ef skuldir Grikklands eru endurskipulagar ea a ef Grikkland fer greislurot:
Greece: What Would Happen If it Defaulted?

  • Stra spurningin sem enginn getur svara fyrir vst, er hve strt heildarhggi yri - en a fer eftir hversu miki var vandinn myndi dreifast, umfram Grikkland!
  • En veseni, er hve skuldir Grikklands og grskra banka eru dreifar va um bankakerfi Evrusvis, svo hggi kemur einnig fram - a mis miklu leiti - hj hinum aildarrkjunum.
  • a sem gerir a srdeilis varasamt, er a margir bankar Evrpu eru enn vikvmri stu fjrhagslega, eftir tjni sem eir uru fyrir er kreppan skall 2008.
  • ECB gti v ori fyrir umtalsveru tjni, umfram beint tjn af verfalli brfa og skuldabrfa, sem honum hefur skotnast fr Grikklandi. a setur spurningamerki vi a, hvaa punkti hann hugsanlega verur tknilega gjaldrota.
  • mun anna af tvennu urfa endurfjrmgnun fr aildarrkjunum, eins og Selabanki slands urfti hausti 2008 fr rkisstj. sl. skv. aldrmdu lni, ea heimild fr aildarrkjunum til a prenta sig t r eim vanda. Bar leiir hafa galla, en vali er milli verblgu og einhvers gengisfalls Evru ea a rkin skipti milli sn a dla peningum ECB, sem au munu vera treg til.

Eitthva ntt stunni?

Deilan um a hva a gera vi Grikkland, er enn leyst - eins og hn var sl. viku. En, 2. hugmyndir hafa komi fram. Hugmynd rkisstjrnar Finnlands ea fjrmlarherra Hollands, Jan Kees de Jager.

  • Mr lst mun betur hugmynd finnskra stjrnvalda, en hugmynd hollenskra stjv.

EU leaders call for agency to monitor Greek sell-off - - Greek assets could go to fund of experts

eir bjartsnustu telja a seljanlegar eignir eigu grskra stjv. su a miklar a vermti, a dugi nokkurn veginn fyrir llum skuldum grska rkisins - .e. viri bilinu 250-300ma., svo unnt s a selja miki meir en einungis 50ma. af eignum.

  1. Vandinn s einfaldlega andstaa og skilvirkni innan grska stjrnkerfisins, auk skorts plitskum vilja hj grskum stjv. til a taka vinslar kvaranir.
  2. Lausnin s v a fela utanakomandi hpi srfringa, a selja r eignir - srfringm skipuum af rum aildarrkjum Evru.
  • Augljsa bendingin er a etta er lklegt a valda miklum innanlanstkum Grikklandi - en herra Jager hefur ekki mikla sam me slkum hyggjum, sbr:

Jan Kees de Jager - Right now, were beyond sensitivities. Our common predicament is simply too serious, he said.

  • nnur bending, er a lklegt s a eignirnar muni reynast nrri v etta mikils viri, ef r eru seldar A) verstu kreppu Grikklandi san eftir 1950, og, B)Seldar me svo miklu hrai.
  • En, "firesale" getur auveldlega valdi v a einungis hlfviri fist fyrir eignir, jafnvel minna.
  • g held einnig, a Jager alvarlega vanmeti, hversu brjlaur grskur almenningur yri, ef slkri ager yri framkv. af tlendum ailum og tala ekki um ef eignirnar vru a fara langt undir matsveri - en g bendi a kringum 2000 neyddist forseti Argentnu, a flja yrlu fr forsetahllinni. g held a Grikkir su fullt eins blheitir og Argentnumenn.

ess vegna lst mr mun betur tillgur finnskra stjrnvalda, en s er sra einfld:

"Finland is pushing for Greece to place state assets into a single government-owned company that could then be used as collateral for another round of EU loans an approach that could prove more palatable for Athens."

  • Eignir grskra stjv. eru sameinaar eignarhalds-stofnun ea flagi, eigu grskra stjv. - lagar a vei mti nju-lni.
  • Ekki gripi til brunatslu!

"On Monday the Greek government pledged to accelerate its long-delayed plans to auction off 50bn in state-owned assets over the next five years." - "Under the fast track process Greece will commit to finding an immediate buyer for its 34pc stake in Hellenic Postbank...It will also bring forward the sale of its 34pc stake in highly profitable gambling monopoly OPAP along with infrastructure divestments." - "This includes bringing forward by a year the sale of the states 74pc stakes in Piraeus and Thessaloniki port authorities and the Thessaloniki Water Supply & Sewerage Co."

  • Spurningin er hversu hratt er unnt a selja eignir - n ess a strfellt verhrun veri slu!
  • g held a lklegt s a raunverulega s unnt, a selja nlgt v ngilegt af eignum, til a trma grskum skuldum, eins og eir bjartsnustu vilja meina.
  • En, kannski er lokatilraunin til a komast hj greisluroti Grikklands, a fara lei sem finnsk. stjv. leggja til, a leggja eignir pkk - og selja r smm saman lengri tma.
  • En, arf mjg lklega einnig lkkun vaxta og frestun greisludaga.
  • Seinna atrii kemur alls ekki til greina, fr sjnarhli ECB.


Niurstaa

Stjrn Selabanka Evrpu kv dag standa saman sem einn maur, gegn llum hugmyndum um a endurskipuleggja skuldir Grikklands, til lkkunar. eir vilja meina a s veri a opna Pandru box, og engin lei s a vita, hve endanlegur kostnaur af slkri ager yri.

Til a hindra samykkt slkra hugmynda, hefur ESB sagst munu stva neyarln til grskra banka, ef slkar hugmyndir vera ofan- hj Rherrarinu.

arna hefur deilan stai cirka san miri sustu viku - .e. meirihluti rkisstj. Evrusvis virist telja skuldalkkun ea endurskipulagningu einu fru leiina, og tala er um a ECB s a einangrast sinni afstu.

g reiknai me v fstud. var, a Rherrari myndi lffa fyrir eindreginni afstu ECB, en dag rijudag hefur a enn ekki gerst. Deilan virist hnt milli eirra meginstofnana.

Menn eru a leita a lausnum eins og fram kemur a ofan. A Rherrari skuli ekki hafa gefi eftir, snir hve varfrnar rkisstj. aildarrkjanna eru ornar, gagnvart vaxandi andstu almennings eigin rkjum, gegn frekari lnum til Grikkja.

A auki btist vi, a flestir tra ekki lengur a Grikkland geti endurgreitt nverandi skuldir, annig a vibtarln vri a brenna f. En, .e. eina lausnin sem ECB sttir sig vi.

Ef hann httir a veita grskum bnkum neyarln - hrynja eir, Grikkland arf a taka alla yfir en yri jafnharan a setja hft fjrmagnshreyfingar, og mjg lklega ddi a a eir yri a skipta innistum njar Drgmur. etta ddi einnig tafarlaust greislufall grska rkisins.

Skrbentar lkja essu vi "nuclear option" .e. a hta v a leggja allt rst.

Deildar meiningar eru um hvort stjrn ECB s alvara me etta!

---------------------

Eina sem vi getum gert er a halda fram a fylgjast me frttum af Evrukrsunni.

Kv.


Skuldatrygginga-lag slands 210 punktum, lag Spnar 277 punktar! Mealtal Evrusvis 216 punktar!

g var a skoa ggn netinu, um stu skuldatryggingalags nokkurra rkja - slands ar me tali. Komst a eftirfarandi, sj mila:

Icelandic Market Daily, 19-05-2011

Euro-zone Sovereign Default Insurance Costs Rise, 23-05-2011

Bloomberg, 23-05-2011: Corporate Bond Risk Rises in Europe, Credit-Default Swaps Show

......................................CDS

  1. Grikkland............1.377
  2. rland....................661
  3. Portgal.................661
  4. Spnn....................277
  5. sland....................210
  6. tala......................177
  7. Belga.....................161
  8. Eurozone................216

a er klrt af stu hinna landanna ann 19/5 sem fram kemur ef frtt Icelandic Market Daily er lesin, a n um helgina hefur ori allnokkur hkkun Evrpu, en hn kemur kjlfar ess a ryggi hefur n aftur skapast vegna Grikklands njan leik og s rleiki smitar t fr sr innan samhengis Evrusvis, san grunar marga a kosningarslit helgarinnar hafi haft hrif mikla hkkun fyrir Spn .e. fr 242 punktum.

  • a er ekki endilega ruggt a s hkkun standist lengur en nokkra daga.
  • En, samt mia vi stuna fyrir viku, er sland komi vel niur fyrir Spn.
  • Einnig komi niur fyrir mealtal Evrusvis.

Niurstaa

Ekkert, alls ekkert, blar eim slmu hlutum sem ttu a gerast, ef slendingar segu "Nei" vi Icesave.

Mig grunar ess, a sland njti ess einfalda hlutar, a hr er afgangur af utanrkisverlun. Ekki mikill sbr. niurstu Selabanka a nett afgangur .e. egar tillit er teki til vaxtagjalda, hafi einungis veri 1,7% af landsframleislu 2010. etta er samt miki betra, en a vera me viskiptahalla kreppu, eins og Grikkland - Portgal og Spnn ba enn vi.

En a vera enn a safna skuldum me essum htti, auvita minnkar tiltr srstaklega egar hagvaxtarforendur eru llegar eins og nverandi kreppustandi.

Afgangurinn ltill s, samt auki tiltr landinu, auki tiltr fjrfesta v a landi geti siglt t r skuldakreppunni. ess vegna rist CDS slands me mun hagstari htti en CDS Grikklands og Portgals, og meira a segja me hagstari htti en tilviki Spnar.

Eins og sst af samanburinum a ofan, virist gjaldmiillinn ekki vera meginatrii essu samhengi.

g f ekki s, a okkar CDS vri lgra ea raunhft vri a a vri umtalsvert hagstara mia vi nverandi tekjustand vs. skuldastu, svo vart er unnt a sj a krnan s a lkka okkar CDS.

Gjaldmiillinn s v "neutral" skv. liti markaa.

eir su a skoa etta t-fr tekjum vs. skuldum, engu ru.

Kv.


ESB aild getur veri dlti tvbent fyrir sland!

etta snst um stu okkar norurslum, og samskipti okkar vi mikilvg rki eins og Rssland og Kna, sem sna norurslum vaxandi huga. En ssur telur a ESB aild s ekki vandaml, a vi getum mjg vel treyst starfsmnnum Framkvmdastjrnar ESB, til a halda utan um hagsmuni slands, egar kemur a samskiptum vi essi mikilvgu rki um hagsmuni okkar norurslum.

  • Best, til a halla ekki rttu mli, eru samningar um aulindir arar en fisk ekki knnu Framkvmdastjrnarinnar, svo vi sjum fram um samninga vi 3. rki t.d. um hugsanlega oluleit og einnig sem dmi, ef Normenn leita olu vi Jan Mayen, vilja leita eim hluta neansjvar hriggjarins er nr inn slenska lgsgu.
  • En, hinn bginn, sr Framkvmdastjrnin um alla viskiptasamninga vi lnd utan sambandsins fyrir hnd aildarrkja, etta hafa ESB sinnar vilja meina a s styrkur fyrir okkur ea kostur, a njta .s. eir vilja meina, gildandi samninga sem ESB hefur vi 3. rki og a auki, afls ESB samningsger vi 3. rki.
  • hinn bginn, eru hlutir ekki alveg etta einfaldir, v til a skilja hva br undir, arf a huga hverjir undirliggjandi hagsmunir aila eru, v jir og rkjasambnd eru ekki undanskilin, fylgja alltaf kvrunum snum, eim hagsmunum sem au rkin ea meirihluti rkjasambands hafa.

ssur stafesti Silfrinu dag sunnudag 22/05

  • a knverskur rherra s er hinga kom fyrir tveim rum hefi ekki vilja ra um neitt anna, en um hugsanlega siglingu risaskipa hinga, og v hugsanlega risafjrfestingu knv. aila hr eim siglingum til undirbnings,
  • og a auki a httsettur aili fr Singapore .s. knv. hafa mikil hrif, hefi einnig rtt essi ml.
  • Og a auki kom fram, a uppi vru virur Utanrkisruneytinu vi embttismenn Alaska um a hafa samvinnu um uppsetningu umskipunarhafna ar og hr.
  • Svo .e. klrlega hreyfing v dmi.
  • San talai hann um a, a hr yrfti a biggja upp aljlega bjrgunarmist, og hefi hann rtt a vi utanrkisrherra Bandarkjanna, vegna allrar eirrar umferar oluskipa sem lklega verur hr, egar vinnsla fer af sta vi Grnland.
  • Hann benti rttilega , a ef oluvinnsla fer af sta v. A-Grnland, s langhagvmast a byggja upp hr jnustu- og birgaastu.

g er ekki sammla ssuri um a, aild a ESB s engu httuatrii, egar kemur a samstarfi vi jir heimsskautssvinu. Sannarlega er rtt a samningar um aulindaml nnur en fiskveiar, koma Brussel ekki vi - a.m.k. ekki me beinum htti.

En, allir viskiptasamningar vi rki utan ESB - eins og g sagi an - urfa a ganga gegnum Brussel - og strir Brussel virum skv. auvita hagsmunum Brussel.

En, ef vi sjum sjlfir um r virur, getum vi betur gtt okkar hagsmuna slkum samningum, .e. ekki er htta v a okkar hagsmunir lendi ru sti eftir hagsmunum heildarinnar innan ESB, sem ekki arf endilega a vera a su eir smu og okkar.

--------------------------------------------Mikilvgi Rssa fyrir ESB

"In 2007, 38.7% of the European Union's natural gas total imports and 24.3% of consumed natural gas originated from Russia.[1][3] Russian natural gas is delivered to Europe through 12pipelines, of which three pipelines are direct pipelines (to Finland, Estonia and Latvia), four through Belarus (to Lithuania and Poland) and five through Ukraine (to Slovakia, Romania, Hungary and Poland).[3]"

"The largest importers of Russian gas in the European Union are Germany and Italy, accounting together for almost half of the EU gas imports from Russia. Other larger Russian gas importers (over 5billion cubic meter per year) in the European Union are France, Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, Austria and Slovakia.[4][5] The largest non-EU importers of Russian natural gas are Ukraine, Turkey and Belarus.[4]"

20081117_02_dependence

"According to the European Commission, the share of Russian natural gas in the member states' domestic gas consumption in 2007 was the following[3]:"

  • Estonia 100%
  • Finland 100%
  • Latvia 100%
  • Lithuania 100%
  • Slovakia 98%
  • Bulgaria 92%
  • Czech Republic 77.6%
  • Greece 76%
  • Hungary 60%
  • Slovenia 52%
  • Austria 49%
  • Poland 48.15%
  • Germany 36%
  • Italy 27%
  • Romania 27%
  • France 14%
  • Belgium 5%

--------------------------------------------Mikilvgi Rssa fyrir ESB

ESB sem heild, hefur mikla hagsmuni af gum samskiptum vi Rssland en einnig vi Kna!

g er einmitt a velta essu fyrir mr, .e. hvernig etta myndi koma t fyrir okkur, egar vi eigum samskipti vi essi rki, en erum orin ailar a ESB.

Eins og kemur fram, selja Rssar Evrpu miki af gasi sem Evrpa alls ekki getur veri n, srstaklega bendi g a lykilrki ESB skaland er mjg h rssnesku gasi, eir fi einnig gas var a, geta jverjar samt ekki kpla t a gas sem eir f fr Rssum.

sannarlega hafi hlutfall af gasi sem ESB kaupir fr Rssum minnka, vegna aukningar kaupum t.d. fr Noregi, ir nverandi stand samt a hagsmunir Rssa hafa meiri vikt en okkar hagsmunir. a tti llum a vera alveg algerlega klrt.

annig, a ef vi vrum inni ESB, myndi ESB .e. Brussel ekki hugsa sig um 2-svar, egar a metur hvort okkar hagsmunir ea Rssa hafi meiri vikt, deilu um hagsmuni Norurslum.

g bendi , a ssur nefndi fiskveiar .e. a norurslum su fiskistofnar sem vi viljum sennilega nta eins og arir, og a sjlfsgu einnig um viskiptatengsl. Undanskil oluml sem koma Brussel ekki vi.

g lt svo a ESB hafi hagsmuni af v a gefa okkar hagsmuni eftir, ef kemur upp rekstur vi Rssa, v hagmunir Evrpu orkumlum heimaslum su a yfirgnfandi sbr. okkar hagsmuni.

En, .e. einnig sta til a huga stu okkar, tengslum vi samskipti vi Knverja, n svii verslunar og viskipta. En, eins og fram kom, getur veri eftir miklu a slgjast fyrir okkur, vegna huga Knverja v a setja hr upp verslunarhafnir - gera viskiptasamninga vi okkur, sem vikoma stu knv. aila hr, fjrfestingum eirra hr o.s.frv.

Aftur, hefur Evrpa mikilla hagsmuna a gta, en sk og Frnsk fyrirtki hafa veri a efla starfsemi sna Kna, og stareyndin er s a innan Kna arf heimild stjrnvalda fyrir llum hlutum sem koma a fjrfestingum fyrirtkja innan Kna, .e. ef fyrirtki itt vill kaupa knv. aila arf heimild fr knv. embttismnnum.

a er ekki flknara, a ef ekki vri fyrir vxt markaar Kna, vri enginn hagvxtur Evrpu akkrat nna. En s byggist algerlega tflutningi .e. auknum tflutningi og megni eirrar aukningar hefur veri til Kna allra sustu misserin, vegna ess a markaurinn Bandarkjunum hefur veri lg san kreppan skall ar, og enn hefur s markaur ekki teki vi sr a ri.

Svo, Kna hefur mjg sterkt hald ESB, gegnum a tangarhald sem Knastj. hefur hagvexti Evrpu, srstaklega tveim mikilvgustu rkjunum .e. Frakklandi og skalandi.

Svo, aftur snist mr klrt - a hagsmunir okkar geta lent undir, ef Kna vill eitthva en a eitthva er ekki samrmi vi okkar hagsmuni; geti eir hta a einhver viskiptasamningur ea einhver yfirtaka, fari ekki fram - milljarar Evra viskiptum tapist, annig fengi sitt fram og vi seti eftir me srt enni, me hagstari tkomu en ef vi sjlf hefum s um samninga.

Niurstaa

a skrtna er, a einmitt vegna ess, a vi eigum ekki mikla hagsmuni innan Kna eins og Frakkland og skaland, og vegna ess a vi erum ekki h gasi fr Rsslandi; hfum vi meira svigrm til athafna gegn Kna og Rsslandi, en ESB.

Jafnvel ESB s miki strra, hafa Rssar og Knv. visst tangarhald Evrpu, sem hvorugur hefur okkur. ess vegna eru lkur til ess, a utan ESB s lklegra a okkur gangi betur, a eiga vi Knverja og Rssa.

g bendi a auki, a varnarsamningurinn er enn gildi vi Bandarkin, svo .e. ekki nein htta v a vi yrum beitt einhverjum alvarlegum htunum. Og .s. vi erum ekki srlega h eim lndum viskiptum enn er ekkert enn sem komi er, hfi fyrir okkur a vera stf og kvein samningum.

g lt v a essum skilningi vri ESB aild varasm fyrir okkur.

Kv.


Evra 3. rum eftir aild - "ssur Skarphinsson". Aild eftir 2-3. r, sem sagt Evra eftir 5-6 r. Raunhft?

ssur var Silfrinu bjartsnni kantinum sannarlega. En, hann er bjartsnn um a samningar klrist nsta ri .e. 2012. San tekur stafestingarferli samnings ESB aildarrki bilinu 1-2 r. annig, a mia vi bjartsnar forsendur ssurar, vri aild hfn eftir 2-3 r, svo mia vi a hann spir Evru hugsanlega 3. rum fr aild. , er hann a segja, a sland s tilbi undir Evru eftir 3-4 r.

En til ess a unnt s a taka upp Evru eftir 5-6 r, arf a vera bi a uppfilla ll skilyri "Convergence Criteria" eftir - ps - 3-4 r.

En lokaprfi er a halda gjaldmili fstum .e. n nokkurra hreyfinga gengi, 2. r samfellt. Til ess a geta reitt a lokaprf, vera ll nnur skilyri a vera hfn, ur en prfi hefst.

Svo ssur er a tala um, a vera tilbin undir Evruna eftir 3-4 r!

-------------------------------Convergence Criteria

"1. Inflation rates: No more than 1.5 percentage points higher than the average of the three best performing member states of the EU.

2. Government finance:

Annual government deficit:
The ratio of the annual government deficit to gross domestic product (GDP) must not exceed 3% at the end of the preceding fiscal year. If not, it is at least required to reach a level close to 3%. Only exceptional and temporary excesses would be granted for exceptional cases.
Government debt:
The ratio of gross government debt to GDP must not exceed 60% at the end of the preceding fiscal year. Even if the target cannot be achieved due to the specific conditions, the ratio must have sufficiently diminished and must be approaching the reference value at a satisfactory pace.

3. Exchange rate: Applicant countries should have joined the exchange-rate mechanism (ERM II) under the European Monetary System (EMS) for two consecutive years and should not have devalued its currency during the period.

4. Long-term interest rates: The nominal long-term interest rate must not be more than 2 percentage points higher than in the three lowest inflation member states."

-------------------------------Convergence Criteria

  • arf klrlega a auka til muna hraann aflttingu gjaldeyrishafta, sem Selabankinn er n binn a f heimild til a framhalda um 5. r.
  • En, klrt er a ef a vera bi a n algeru jafnvgi okkar peningakerfi, 3-4 rum; arf a hefjast handa af miklum krafti ekki seinna en essu ri.
  • Stjrnarandstaan hefur veri a segja, hftin af sem fyrst.
  • Mia vi or ssurar, arf rkisstjrnin a taka eirri krfu stjrnarandstunnar sem skorun, um a bretta upp ermar og afnema hftin - helst egar essu ri.
  • En ljst er a nokkur boafll munu vera okkar peningakerfi, egar losa er um stflur sbr. hundru milljara tistandandi af krnubrfum sem arf a losa um, hundru milljara af aflandskrnum sem einnig arf a losa um, og ekki sst peningar innan okkar fjrmlakerfis sem lklega vilja t.
  • Ekki fyrr en essum boafllum er loki, er hgt a hefjast handa um a n v jafnvgi sem arf a rkja, ef a vera unnt a reita lokaprfi.
  • Mia vi or ssurar er mjg ltill tmi til stefnu - en g bendi a n fyrst um 3. rum eftir hrun er verblgan a mestu farin sem var til vegna gengisfallsins, og .s. tstreymi mun kalla umtalsvert gengisfall mia vi rf a beita sem hravirkustu tlei r nverandi standi, er ekki varlegt a tla a a taki a.m.k. svipa langann tma a n aftur niur verblgu, sem ntt hrun vegna afnms hafta mun framkalla.
  • Tminn sem ssur setur er v mjg naumur - virkilega mjg svo. Og n er g ekki farinn a nefna skuldastu rkissjs, sem verur a vera komin a.m.k. niur fyrir 70% sbr. krfuna um 60% hmark, en oralag gefur vissann afsltt ef skuldastaa er a leita hratt rtta tt. S skuldastaa er n rtt innan vi 100% af jarframleislu, og enn er halli rkissj etta r, svo reikna er me a skuldir rkissjs veri enn hrri 2012 .e. eitthva rml. 100%.
  • arf a n mia vi nsta r, skuldastu upp rml. 100% niur fyrir 70% 2-3 rum.

Niurstaa

Er a setja or ssurar smvegis vitrnt samhengi :)

Tek fram, a g hef engar vntingar um a, a rkisstjrnin komist nokkurs staar nrri essu markmii, og lt 10 r .e. 7-8 rum eftir aild, sem bjartsnt markmi. En hugsanlega mgulegt.

San vil g benda or furs Evrunnar, Robert Mundell - en hann kom fram me rleggingu a taka einhlia upp dollar, sj: Robert Mundell, nbelsverlaunahafi hagfri, oft kallaur fair Evrunnar - rleggur slendingum a tengja gengi krnunnar vi gengi bandar. dollars!

g tla ekki a tj mig neitt srstaklega um hans rleggingu, bendi einfaldlega um mna umfjllun me beinni tilvitnun Mundell, en r stur sem Mundell nefnir fyrir dollar frekar en evru koma ar fram.

En .e. samt ekkert hrist r erminni, vegna ess a vi yrum a kaupa dollara sjlf. En mn skoun er, a vi eigum a.m.k. nstu 10. rin a mia vi a ba vi krnu. Upptaka annars gjaldmiils s lengri tma markmi, ef .e. okkar niurstaa a a s rtta leiin.

Kv.


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Einar Björn Bjarnason

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Einar Björn Bjarnason
Einar Björn Bjarnason
Stjórnmála- og Evrópufræðingur. Áhugi á stjórnmálum, Evrópumálum, alþjóðamálum, málefnum Miðausturlanda, trúmálum, vísindum og tækni, og margt fleira.
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