Bloggfrslur mnaarins, aprl 2010

Plitskur jarskjlfti - Besti flokkurinn 4 fulltr, Sjlfst.fl. 4 fulltr., Samf 5 fulltr. og VG 2 - arir komist ekki a!

Vart hgt a kalla etta anna, en plitskan jarskjlfra Reykjavk:

Einungis 4. vikur sveitarstjrnar-kosningar.

"Besti flokkurinn eykur verulega fylgi sitt og fr hann n 24% atkva samkvmt knnuninni. Samfylking fengi 28% fylgi og Sjlfstisflokkur 27% fylgi. Vinstri grnir f 16% fylgi Reykjavk og Framsknarflokkur 4%. 9% taka ekki afstu og 9% myndu ekki kjsa ea skila auu ef kosi yri til borgarstjrnar n."

"Samkvmt essu fengi Samfylking 5 borgarfulltra, Sjlfstisflokkur 4 borgarfulltra, Besti flokkurinn 4 borgarfulltra og Vinstri grnir 2 borgarfulltra. Framsknarflokkur nr ekki inn manni."

Ekki margir kostir fyrir 2. flokka meirihluta:

  • Samf + Sjlfst.fl = hugsanlegur meirihluti.
  • Samf + Besti fl. = hugsanlegur meirihluti.
  • Sjlfst.fl. + Besti fl. = hugsanlegur meirihluti.


Ef til vill, eykur etta lkur, a tillaga borgarstjra um nokkurs konars jstjrnar fyrirkomulag borginni, veri a veruleika.

Hva me Besta flokkinn, sem er stofnaur af vel ekktum grnistum? Hvernig, verur me grn - egar alvaran bankar a dyrum?

rslitin, virast fall fyrir Framsknarflokkinn, sem vantar rm 2% til a komast inn, skv. essu.

Ef til vill, er a einmitt mli, a rannsknar-nefndar-skrslan, s orkin. En, skoun rslitum fyrir landsvsu, virist benda til, a einkum Sjlfstisflokkurinn, s a f baukinn.

Kv.


Mynd a komast AGS plan fyrir Grikkland!

Sj frtt Financial Times: Greece agrees 24bn austerity package

Ljst virist, af upptalingunni, yfir agerir, sem grska rkisstjrnin, virist vera bin a samykkja a innleia nstu 3. rum; a ekki verur um auvelt verk a ra.

  • Two to three percentage points increase in value-added tax
Fram kemur frtt, a virisaukaskattur, hefur egar veri hkkaur essu ri.
  • Three-year public sector pay freeze; recruitment frozen
Frysting kauphkkunum, til rkisstarfsmanna nstu 3. r. Bann, vi nrningum, yfir sama tmabil.
  • Abolition of 13th and 14th monthly salary for public sector workers; 5 per cent cut in allowances
Htt, a greia opinberum starfsmnnum, aukamnu(i). Frindi skorin niur.
  • No renewals for short-term public sector contracts
Samningar vi skammtmarna opinbera starfsmenn, ekki endurnjair, egar eir renna t.
  • Closure of more than 800 out-dated state entities
Loka , yfir 800 reltum rkisstofnunum.
  • Opening up of more than 60 closed-shop professions
Opna upp gtt, yfir 60 starfsgreinar, .s. til staar eru takmarkanir fjlda eirra sem starfa vikomandi grein.
Sambrileg dmi slandi, er akstur leigubla Reykjavk - sem er h leyfum sem starfsgreinin sjlf stjrnar.
Slkt, er tali hagkvmt, af hagfringum. En, reikna m fastlega me tkum, vi vikomandi starfsgreinar - .e. verkfll.
  • Overhaul of pension system: raising average retirement age (from 53) to 67 for men and women; cutting state corporation pensions.
etta er engin sm breiting, .e. hkkun eftirlauna aldri rkisstarfsmanna, r 53 67, sama tma og ellilfeyrir er einnig lkkaur.
  • Privatisation: sales of state corporations; flotations on Athens stock exchange; sales and leasing of state-owned properties

Umfangsmikil einkaving, eignum og fyrirtkjum eigu rkisins.

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Ljst er, a nokkur at essum atrium, vera mjg augljslega, mikil hitaml Grikklandi, ef og egar, rkisstjrnin gerir tilraun til a innleia au atrii.

  • Reikna m me verkfalls-agerum hpa, sem stendur til a missi lgleiingu/einkaleyfi.
  • Lklegt er a rkisstarfsmenn, bregist mjg harkalega vi svo strfelldri hkkun, eftirlauna aldurs.
  • A auki m einnig bast vi, a sama eigi vi lkkun launa og missi frinda.

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a verur a koma ljs hvernig Grikkjum mun ganga.

En, vsbendingar essari frtt, benda til a menn su a semja um 3. ra AGS plan, sem muni kosta heildina e-h nlgt 120 milljrum Evra.

Hovrt a a dugar, til a sannfra markai, er nnur saga.

Einnig, hvort markair muni ekki sna sr a Portgal, annig a Portgal urfi einnig fljtlega sambrilegri bjrgun a halda.

Spurning, er einnig um rland, sem er nsta land ar eftir, egar kemur a erfiri stu.

San, lnd eins og Spnn - tala - jafnvel Bretland.

Vi lifum spennandi tmum.

Kv.


sland vs. Grikkland!

lkt hafast n lndin 2 a. Fyrir rmu ri, sagi forstisrherra Grikklands e-h lei, a Grikkland vri ekki sland - egar hann bls umru, a Grikkland vri hrunhttu.

N, stendur Grikkland frammi fyrir greisluroti, ann 19. ma nstkomandi, og fyrsti ms er n laugardaginn.

Sj frtt BBC: Greek bonds rated 'junk' by Standard & Poor's

"Greece needs to raise 9bn euros by 19 May, but has said it cannot go to the markets because of "prohibitive" interest rates."

  1. Lnshfismat Grikkland, var gr, af Standard & Poor's, lkka rusl-flokk.
  2. Lnshfismat Portgal, var einnig lkka. En, er enn sem komi er, hrra en lnshfismat slands.
  3. Fyrir skmmu san, var mat Standard & Poor's fyrir sland, endurmeti - er enn lgsta flokki fyrir ofan rusl, en horfur metnar stugar - .s. htta greisluroti hafi fjarlgst, vegna ess, a ntt lnsf fr AGS hafi n borist, og ruggt tali a fjrmagn gjaldeyrisvarasji endist t 2011 a.m.k.
  4. dag, var san, lnshfismat Spnar, einnig lkka.

Skuldatrygginga-�lag

Myndin snir run skuldatrygginga lags, fyrir tiltekin Evrpulnd.

Tekin r frtt BBC

Eins og sst, er mat markaarins lkum ess, a tiltekin lnd, fari greislurot, a hkka essa dagana.

Httan, virist mjg raunveruleg v, a Portgal lendi svipuum daua-spral og Grikkland er n .

Spnn, er klrlega einnig einhverri httu. En, lklegt m telja - a ef svipu run mun fara af sta, fyrir Portgal og fyrir Grikkland; fari markaurinn einnig a kyrrast gagnvart Spni.

Evrpusambandi, getur klrlega bjarga Grikklandi og Portgal, en Spnn - sem er miklu strra hagkerfi en hin 2. samanlagt - er a str biti. A, ef Spnn stendur frammi fyrir hruni, me svipuum htti. , skortir lnd Evrpu fjrmagnslegt bolmagn, til a koma til bjargar.

Nverandi krsa, er v virkilegt alvru ml.

sland er rtt fyrir allt, mun skrri stu:
  • Gengisfall krnunnar, sem skaai marga er skulda erlendri minnt, mti hefur mjg btt samkeppnisstu tflutnings fr slandi. annig, a einmitt etta lggengi, er ein af forsendum, endur-upprisu sl. hagkerfisins. En, s endur-upprisa, arf a byggjast tflutningi.
  • sama tma, br Grikkland vi mynt, .e. Evru, sem er of htt skr fyrir grska hagkerfi. En, ef eir vru en me Drgmuna, hefi hn eins og krnan falli strt; og ar me, btt samkeppnisstu grskra tflutnings atvinuvega - og, ar me, btt mguleika Grikklands til tekjuflunar til framtar. En, ess sta, a stula a atvinnu-uppbyggingu, arlendis. , stular hgengi Evru n, a v a mguleikar grikkja til framtar hagvaxtar fara dvnandi, og ar me einnig, mguleikar eirra til a standa undir skuldum. etta er reynd, hluti af stu ess, a Grikkland er n a fara rot. En, of htt gengi rkjandi gjaldmiils, fyrir svi Grikkland, veldur v a samdrttur hagkerfis Grikkland er a vera mun meiri, en annars hefi ori. a veldur einnig, mjg hratt vaxandi atvinnuleysis vanda.
  • En, gengisfall krnunnar, er einmitt ein af meginskringum ess, a atvinnuleysi hr, hefur haldist innan vi 10%. A, samdrttur hagkerfisins, hefur ori vi minni, en svartsnustu spr geru r fyrir. etta, san stular a bttum mguleikum sl. hagkerfisins, til a rtta vi sr, me hrai.

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  1. slandi er miklu hrra vaxtastig en Grikklandi. a vaxtastig, er algerlega arft. Gegnir alls engu gagnlegu hlutverki. Vaxtastigi, er alvarleg bremsa sl. hagkerfi. etta er blugt, v vexti er hgt a lkka, me einu pennastriki. ljsi ess, a enginn verblgurstingur er til staar okkar hagkerfi, en g vi enslu; tel g htt fullkomlega, a lkka vaxtastig hr mjg verulega. En, ekki verur s, a nokkrar lku su , a veri til einhvers konar ofensla. En, vandamli dag er samdrttur.
  2. Verblga hr, stafar einungis af breytingum gengisskrningu. Tal, um verblguvntingar er vttingur, .s. vntingar um verblgu er hugtak sem ekki vi, egar hlut verblga sem orsku ef, af gengisbreytingu. En, a hugtak hinn bginn vi, egar til staar er enslu-spenna. En, enslu-spenna, skapar einmitt vntingar um verblgu, svipa v og a hraur vxtur slu afura hj fyrirtki skapar vntingar um hkkun gengis hlutafjr ess.
  3. Vextir geta einungis stula a lkkun eirrar tegundar verblgu sem n rkir, me v a stula a gengisstugleika. En, standi samdrttar, getur verblga ekki rifist ef gengi er stugt. En, mjg lklegt er a nverandi vaxtastig, hafi au hrif. A)En, vextirnir magna samdrtt hagkerfisins. B)Aukinn hrai samdrttar lkkar vermtamyndun innan hagkerfisins, og minnkar heildarvermti ess. C)Minnkun heildarvermtis hagkerfis, a llu jfnu, tti a leia til lkkun gengis gjaldmiils ess. En, svipa vi, og ef samdrttur er hj fyrirtki, leiir a til minnkunar vermta mats fjrfesta v fyrirtki, ergo - lkkun vers hlutabrfa ess. etta virkar me sambrilegum htti.
  4. Htt vaxtastig er mjg bagalegt einmitt vegna ess, hve fyrirtki landsins eru skuldug og einnig heimili ess. En, vextir eru v alvarlegri bremsa, eftir v sem alvarlegur skuldavandi er tbreiddari innan samflags. En, slandi rkis sennilega versta skuldakreppa almennings og atvinnulfs, hinum vestrna heimi.

3. fangaskrsla AGS

End-January 2010 data shows the level of non-performing loans at 50 percent for the corporate sector, and 41 percent for small and medium sized enterprises (bls. 4)" - "(about 30 percent of retail loans under ISK 100 million at the banks are in default while about 15 percent of loans at the Housing Finance Fund (HFF) are in default or under payment suspension)" - bls. 4.

  • Heimilin skulda bnkunum, 114% af landsframleislu.
  • Fyrirtkin, sama tma, skulda eim 110% af landsframleislu.

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Skuldavandi atvinnulfsins og almennings, er einmitt alvarlegasta hagkerfisvandaml slands.

  • a arf a takast vi ann vanda, ef mgulegt a vera fyrir hagkerfi sl. a vaxa.
  • En, sjlfsprottinn hagvxtur, mun sennilega fara af sta, nnast um lei - og essi vandi hefur veri mildaur.
  • Lkkun vaxta, er einmitt s ager, sem mestu mun skila. Og, hn skilar svo miklu, akkrat vegna ess, hve alvarlegur skuldavandi er tbreiddur.

Str vaxtalkkun:

  1. ir a skuldug heimili, eiga meira af peningum eftir, um hver mnaarmt - akkrat vegna ess, a vaxtalkkun lkkar kostnainn af skuldunum sem hver fjlskylda arf a bera srhvern mnu. Eftir v sem skuldirnar eru hrri, v strri verur munurinn. g fullyri, engin nnur lei, myndi fra heimilunum, strri kjarabt.
  2. Sama vi um fyrirtkin, .e. skuldug fyrirtki hafa meiri peninga eftir me alveg sama htti. Kjarabtin er v strri, sem skuldirnar eru hrri.
  3. etta ir, a frri skuldug heimili/fyrirtki fara rot. Skuldug heimili/fyrirtki, geta fjrfest meira. Skuldug heimili/fyrirtki, standa undir fleiri strfum samflaginu.
  4. A lokum, ef vextir eru lkkair, munu bankar loks geta jna atvinnulfinu. En, dag me grunnvexti 9% - eru bankaln sennilega of dr. En, s sta, er lklegasta skring ess, a lti er lna t essu ri.

Skv. AGS skrslunni, eru inneignir almennings bnkunum kr., 1.480 ma.kr. - 91% VLF

etta f liggur bnkunum, atvinnulfinu til ltils gagns, vegna ess a of hir vextir valda v, a atvinnufi og almenningur, hefur ekki efni a taka ln til nframkvmda ea nfjrfestinga.

Str vaxtalkkun, hefur v mjg margvsleg jkv hrif.

ljsi ess, hve htt vaxtastig hefur mrg alvarleg neikv hif, verur vart s a vextirnir geti veri a skila nokkrum jkvum hrifum mti, sem komist nokkru nrri v a vega upp mti.

  • Vaxtavandinn, er okkar heimatilbni vandi.
  • Vi eigum egar sta, a skera ann vanda, og lkka vextina miki.
  • S ager ein og sr, getur fari langleiina til ess, a framkalla hagvxt.

---------------------En fleira m gera, til a hjlpa.

  • Skattalkkun, srstaklega til eirra sem vilja hefja njan tflutning, tti einnig a hjlpa til. A) g vi, a ailar sem vilji stofna til ns tflutnings rekstar, eigi a f skatta-afsltt um t.d. 5 r, t.d. 50% afsltt. B) Sama eigi a gilda um eldir fyrirtki, sem vilji umbreyta forsendum eldri rekstrar me eim htti, a skili tflutnings tekjum aan fr.
  • Me v a beita skattkerfinu, til a hvetja til tflutnings, um lei er hvatt til hagvaxtar.
  • San, m huga aukningu veia um tma, t.d. +40 sund tonn af orski og +60 sund tonn, dreift arar tegundir. etta, tti ekki a vera of httusamt.

Samanlagt:

  1. Lggengi krnu.
  2. Mjg lkkair vextir.
  3. tflutnings hvetjandi skattakerfi.

Hltur a skila endurkomu hagvaxtar.

En, mguleikar okkar til hagvaxtar, eru einmitt mun betri, en mguleikar S-Evrpu til hagvaxtar, - - en, aeins ef skipt er um stjrnarstefnu.

  • Ef nverandi hvaxtastefnu + hskattastefnu, er fram framhaldi, er alveg mgulegt, a framkalla hr, vivarandi stand efnahags samdrttar.
  • En, .e. einmitt tliti, ef ekki er snarsni af lei.

Kv.


Grikkland gjaldrota, ann 19. ma n.k.

etta er hrmulegt drama, sem vi hfum fyrir augum okkur. .e. hrun Grikklands.

Sj frtt BBC: Greek bonds rated 'junk' by Standard & Poor's

"Greece needs to raise 9bn euros by 19 May, but has said it cannot go to the markets because of "prohibitive" interest rates."

Me rum orum, segir s yfirlsing hvorki meira n minna en a Grikkland, veri greislurota ann 19. ma n.k.

"Greece's 2-year government bond yield surged to almost 15% on Tuesday, making it highly expensive for the country to borrow from the debt market."

"Greek 5-year yields hit 10.6%, higher than many emerging market economies, including Ecuador at 10.5% and Ukraine at 7.1%."

Grikkland, er me rum orum, svo alvarlegum bravanda a um essar mundir, er hreinlega kapphlaup vi tmann, um a setja saman bjrgunarpakka - fyrir "deadline".

Standard & Poor's downgrade Greek credit rating to junk status

"Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income research at Evolution Securities, said: "The longer it takes to get the Greek rescue package together, the worse things will get. Everyone knows that markets hate uncertainty. There is a danger that events could spiral out of control in the absence of decisive action." "

Me rum orum, ef Evrpusambandi tekur ekki skjta kvrun, samvinnu vi AGS, s einnig s gn til staar, a vandi Grikklands eytri t fr sr - en, margir ttast a fjrfestar fari a fyllast tta, vegna t.d. Portgals, jafnvel einnig talu og Spnar.

En, ll essi rki eiga um essar mundir vi erfian efnahags vanda a stra.

San er einn vandinn enn s, a Grikkland arf miklu meira en 45 milljara Evra:

Standard & Poor's downgrade Greek credit rating to junk status

Economists believe Greece will need more than the 45bn pledged so far. Erik Nielsen of Goldman Sachs said today that rescuing the Greek economy could require 150bn over the next three years. "I suspect some haggling is now going on between the IMF and the eurozone on how they can share the burden of a bigger programme," he said.

Steven Major, head of fixed income research at HSBC, estimated Greece would need 110bn over the next two years and that "a longer-term plan was in everyone's best interests".

At a meeting of the IMF in Washington at the weekend, finance ministers admitted that 45bn was just the start of what was needed. Greek officials are understood to be pushing for a three-year deal, as the bare minimum."

En, augnablikinu virist ekki vera plitskur stuningur innan Evrpusambandsins, fyrir nema aeins 45 milljara Evra pakka, sem aeins myndi duga eitt r.

En, httan er , .s. markairnir vita alveg a vandaml grikkja vru alls ekki leyst, a slk framsetning stvi hreinlega ekki ann httulega spral, mrkum sem n virist vera a fara af sta; annig a hann hreinlega spili sig fram.

Vi lifum spennandi tmum!

Kv.


Mun Eyjafjalla-jkuls gosi, fella efnahagsplan rkisstjrnarinnar og AGS?

etta er alls ekki frleitt. En, plan AGS og rkisstjrnarinnar, stendur mjg veikum grunni - og ef t a er fari; sjlfur grunnurinn byggir tkomu, sem besta falli, verur a skoast sem viss.

Eins og g tskri greiningu minni 3. skrslu AGS:

h greining 3. fanga skrslu AGS, um sland og samt gagnrni minni sp AGS um lklega framvindu, sl. efnahagsmla!

  • stendur a efnahagsplan algerlega og fellur me v, hvort strframkvmdir tilteknar sem af sta eiga a fara seinni hluta essa rs; raunverulega komast koppinn.
  • Ef r fara ekki af sta, virist ekki vera fyrir hendi, nokkur mguleiki ess, a til veri hagvxtur.

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Skainn af Eyjafjallajkuls gosinu:

  • A sgn talsmanna ferajnustunnar, rignir n inn afpntunum um gistingu slandi og um flug til slands; sumar.
  • Ferajnustumenn, segja a tekjur sumarsins, sem vnst var til - su voa.
  • eir vilja, a rkisstjrnin komi til, og standi fyrir kynningarherfer erlendis.

Vandinn er s, a ef tekjur af feramnnum minnka verulega sumar:

  • dpkar a kreppuna hrlendis.
  • Hallinn rkissji eykst, .s. innkoma rkiskassann minnkar.
  • Gjaldrot heimila og fyrirtkja fjlgar.


Punkturinn er, a rkissjur, tlar vking t aljlega lnamarkai, seinni part essa rs
:

  • Samnings-astaan er veik fyrir.
  • Mtailarnir, vita a rki arf ln, annars er plani falli.
  • Ef, staa efnahagsmla, versnar enn - mia vi .s. tlit var fyrir.
  • auvita, veikist samnings astaan, enn meir.


Sko, essi tlun, a skja s f lnamarkai, essu ri - 2010. Er, besta falli mjg "iffy".

  • essu ri, rkir gjrninga veur lnamrkuum, .s. rkissjir Vesturlanda sem flest reka sig dag me halla, tla sr a fjrmagna ann halla einmitt a verulegu leiti, me v a skja sr f aljlega lnamarkai.
  • .e. v mikil samkeppni, um a f sem er boi.
  • S samkeppni, v miur virkar me eim htti, a hkka vxtunarkrfu til eirra rkja eins og t.d. okkar, sem eru veikri samnings astu.
  • Ofan allt a, kemur svo krsan Grikklandi, en Grikkland er gjaldrotsbrninni. Portgal, stendur ekki miki betur, og lklegt a sjnir manna beinist a v landi nst. San, ttast menn, a r komi a talu. Jafnvel Spni.

A, sjlfsgu, vegur gosi minna, en etta gjrningaveur. En, gosi er samt, slm hrif, ofan allt drama sem fyrir er.

Tja, vi lifum spennandi tmum. .e. vst.

Kv.


h greining 3. fanga skrslu AGS, um sland og samt gagnrni minni sp AGS um lklega framvindu, sl. efnahagsmla!

Af lestri skrslu AGS kemur mjg skrt fram, hve allt plani er grarlega h einum tilteknum akklesarhl, en a eru str fyrirhugu framkvmdaverkefni orkumlum.

En, skv. skrslu AGS, mun aukning skulda af eirra vldum, vera upp cirka 20% af jarframleislu, en mti komi a au skili vermta-aukningu inn hagkerfi, sem bti ann kostna upp og gott betur.

Veikleikinn er sem sagt, a ef ekki verur af essum stru framkvmda verkefnum, ea a au tefjast verulega.

a eru reyndar fleiri veikleikar:

  • Gert r fyrir a sala eigna r rotabum Glitnis, Kaupings banka og Landsbanka; fari af sta, af krafti 2011. En, .e. dliti bjartsnt, .s. slk sala getur ekki hafist, fyrr en llum krumlum, hinna msu krfuhafa, um eirra rtt, er loki. En, eins og mnnum tti a vera fersku mynni, voru bankarnir greinilega nokkurs konar spilavti fyrir eigendur sna. Rkisstjrnin hefur veri vru vi v, a lok dmsmla, lklega dragist fram yfir 2011.
  • En, a skiptir mli, hvenr sala eigna hefst, v sala eigna a lkka skuldir og v einnig bta greislustu landsins. Ef hn dregst, verur hvort tveggja, skulda- og greislu-staa, hagstari, en skrsluhfundar reikna me.
  • San, eru a nttrulega verin, fyrir r eignir, sem a selja. En, um a erum vi h, hagrun meginlandi Evrpu og Bretlandi. En, hagstari ver en reikna me, einnig skila hagstari greislu- og skuldastu.
  • Ytra umhverfi, vsa g hagrun heiminum. Um hana, er AGS menn fremur bjartsnir, sj njustu niurstur eirra um run heimshagkerfisins ( Sp AGS um run heimshagkerfisins ). En, ver fyrir l, ver fyrir fiskafurir og fj. feramanna, er allt h hagrun lndum og svum, utan slands. Vi verum nttrulega vona, a s run veri hagst.
  • San auvita, flutningur flks af landi brott. En, eins og g skil forsendur efnahags plansins, inniber a framhaldandi alvarlega lfskjaraskeringu r fr ri t 2014, a.m.k. annig, tekst a tryggja a innflutningur skreppi fram saman, sama tma og hagvxtur er binn til. En, s hagvxtur getur einungis byggst v, a 2. risalver sambrileg vi Reyarl a str, veri raunverulega bygg. annig, a sland, veri l-fyrirtkja parads + samt v a hinga komi tristar + auk essa a hr veri tger. En, etta innber hjkvmilega aukningu brottflutnings flks.

3. fangaskrsla AGS

Fjrmgnunarrf slands (tlur milljrum dollara bls. 46)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Viskiptahalli -0.5 -0.7 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0

Erlend fjrfesting -1.2 0.5 1.8 0.9 0.5 1.5

g tek valda tti, r tflunni fr AGS, en lesendur geta virkja hlekkinn og lesi alla tfluna sjlfir.

Taki eftir linum "Erlend fjrfesting" og taki srstaklega eftir v, hva myndi gerast fyrir hallann viskiptum vi tlnd, ef erlend fjrfesting s sem gert er r fyrir, skilar sr ekki. Ef hn vri t.d. 800 milljn dollurum minni, fer hallinn ri 2011 milljar dollara.

eyast lnin gjaldeyris varasjnum, nttrulega hraar upp, en gert er r fyrir.

En, eir sem taka tt, boi mnu, um a leika sr me tlur, urfa a gera sr grein fyrir, a lkka arf tlur lka fyrir nstu r eftir, ef talan um erlenda fjrfestingu er lkku fyrir ri 2011.

San a auki, verur einnig, ekki s aukning tekna, sem gert er r fyrir, svo hallinn mun , aukast r eftir r.

Svo, arna er g a tala um, neikvann spral sta ess jkva, sem gert er r fyrir.

-----------------------------------

Nst vil g benda tfluna "Contribution to GDP growth" bls. 28.

En, ar sst klrlega, a liurinn "Investments" megni af tluum hagvexti ri 2011.

rin areftir, er hagvxtur drifinn af neyslu fyrirtkja hagkerfisins og tflutningi. En, au verkefni sem a reisa, sbr. risa-lver, eru byggingastigi.

Annars staar skrslunni, kemur fram, a etta framkvmdaf erlendum gjaldeyri, veri teki a lni, sem hkki skuldir um 20%, en san tir etta einkahagkerfinu af sta, .s. fjrfestingin skapi eftirspurn eftir jnustu margra aila, sem urfi a afla sr afanga sbr. neysla.

essi verkefni, geta ekki skila auknum tflutnings tekjum, fyrr en eftir nokkur r. Svo, aukning tflutnings tekna, er svolti dularfullt. En, ekki gert r fyrir aukningu, veia.

egar taflan smu bls. beint fyrir nean, er skou.

virist sem gert s r fyrir aukningu tflutningi jnustu og einhverjum skilgreindum rum varningi. En, forvitnilegt verur a sj, hvernig rkisstjrnin, tlar sr a stula a essum tflutningi.

v, ekki hefur hn veri a gera skattalegt umhverfi hagstara.

------------------------------------

San, skuldir fyrirtkja/heimila.

Sj tflur bls. 26.

En, ar kemur fram "About half of corporate loans...are nonperforming" - sem sagt, u..b. helmingur lna til strri fyrirtkja, er vandrum. etta er geigvnlega flug bremsa hagkerfi.

"End-January 2010 data shows the level of non-performing loans at 50 percent for the corporate sector, and 41 percent for small and medium sized enterprises (bls. 4)"

arna sst, a cirka 40% sm-rekstrar er einnig vandrum, me sn ln.

"(about 30 percent of retail loans under ISK 100 million at the banks are in default while about 15 percent of loans at the Housing Finance Fund (HFF) are in default or under payment suspension)" - bls. 4.

30% hsnislna krnum, vandrum hj bnkunum, sama tma a um 15% hsnisln hj balnasji er vanda. Niurstaa Selabankans, er a um 24.000 fjlskyldur, urfi frekari rri, en hafa fram a essu, veri boi.

Fram kemur, skrslunni, a AGS ltur alvarlega skuldastu fyrirtkja og erfia skuldastu heimila, sem gnun vi efnahags framvindu.

"The authorities and staff agreed that accelerated private debt restructuring is
needed to reduce the debt overhang and support growth (LOI 18). High household and corporate debt (about 130 and 370 percent of GDP in September 2008), has weighed on domestic demand. Moreover a large part of the banks loan book will require some degree of restructuring. Targeted measures for distressed households could help limit the decline in private consumption. Corporate debt restructuring could help prevent exit of viable, albeit over-leveraged companies and eventually boost corporate investment. Successful restructuring would also restore banks capacity to resume new lending, and could help improve the external debt outlook." - bls. 13.

Skuldir heimila, hafa ekki lkka san, en e-h hefur greinilega veri afskrifa af skuldum fyrirtkja, .s. heildarskuldir jflagsins, eru metnar 300% VF (Verg jar framleisla).

"The right approach remains to emphasize targeted, voluntary, and fiscallyaffordable
measures, and it will be important to temper expectations by communicating that
further measures will not be forthcoming
. The insolvency regime also needs to be refined to support debt restructurings in the corporate sector, and the focus should be on increasing the capacity of the court system to process requests." - bls. 22.

En, af lestri skrslunnar, kemur fram bjartsni, um a agerir rkisstjrnarinnar, .s. bankakerfinu er fali, a vinna me skuldir hvers og eins, og bja fyrirtkjum sambrilega jnustu, dugi til a draga, r eirri httu. Leggja veri rka herslu , a koma v til skila, a r agerir veri innan ramma ess, fjrhagslega viranlega, og a frekari agera s san ekki a vnta, sj textann a ofan. etta er boskapur AGS og rkisstjrnarinnar.

Skv. tflu bls. 32 er landsframleisla 2010 1.620.5 ma.kr.

Skv. bls. 13 eru heildarskuldir heimila 2008 130% VF.

Skv. tflu bls. 33 (liurinn eignir bankakerfisins)

"net domestic assets" ea skuldir heimila, 1.853 ma.kr. - 114% VLF.

"Credit to private sector" ea ln til atvinnulfsins, 1.795 ma.kr. - 110% VLF

"Domestic depostis - local currency) inneignir almennings kr., 1.480 ma.kr. - 91% VLF

  • Heimilin skulda bnkunum, 114% af landsframleislu.
  • Fyrirtkin, sama tma, skulda eim 110% af landsframleislu.

essi grarlega skuldastaa, er mjg varasm:

  • Mguleikar almenning/fyrirtkja til a fjrfesta, vera um langa hr, takmarkair mjg svo.
  • Eftirspurn, hagkerfinu hvort sem er eftir fjrfesting- ea neysluvrum, verur v llegt um langa hr.
  • a m, sem afleiing af essu, reikna me a eftirspurn eftir hsni, hvort sem um er a ra fyrir heimili ea rekstur, veri lleg til margra nstu ra - og ar me ver, lg.
  • Hnnun og run, mun vntanlega einnig ba skaa af, .s. fjrmagn til eirra hluta, verur takmarka umfram .s. gu hfi gegnir.
  • Almenningur og fyrirtki, geta sur afla sr ea starfsmnnum, umfram-menntunar. En, heimi hrara tkniframfara, er smenntun lykilatrii, ef ekki a dragast aftur r.
  • Vihald og endurnjun hsnis, og tkja - getur dregist r hmlu, .s. fjrmagn skortir.
  • Httan er hnygnandi samkeppnishfni sem skai mguleika til flunar tekna, framtinni.
  • Httan, umora, sku til langs tma, geta hagkerfisins til hagvaxtar.
  • .e. sku framtar lfskjr.

Sp AGS um framtarhorfur: N sp - bls. 36.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Landsframleisla -3.0 2.3 2.4 2.6 4.0

Fjrfestingar -10.0 27.9 3.1 0.9 11.3 (hagv. binn til m. risafjrfestingum 2011)

Neysla fyrirtkja 1.4 2.1 3.7 5.5 5.0

Neysla almennings -2.5 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 2.5 (Neysla alm. klrlega ekki drifkr. hagv.)

tflutningur 1.0 1.0 4.6 4.1 4.3 (tflutningur, eykst ri eftir stra fjrf.)

Innflutningur 0.8 5.9 4.9 5.3 7.7

(Srkennilegt er a aukning er innflutningi, sama tma og samdrttur er innflutningi varningi og innflutningi jnustu - sj tflu a nean. En, sjlfsagt telst innflutningur trbnum virkjanir, innflutningur tkjum fyrir lver - til innflutnings)

Atvinnuleysi 9.7 8.6 6.4 4.4 3.0 (Atvinnuleysi minnka sennil. m. framkv.)

Laun -1.8 1.0 2.4 1.3 1.8 (Lti launaskri)

Verblga 6.2 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.5 (Verb. minnkar smm saman)

Skuldir 299.0 256.7 239.0 226.5 203.1

Tekjur rkisins 39.2 41.3 43.0 43.5 44.1 (Sem hlutfall af landsframleislu)

tgjld rkisins 48.6 46.6 44.3 42.0 41.3 (Visnningur a eiga sr sta)

Halli/afgangur -9.4 -5.3 -1.3 1.6 2.7

Heildarskuld rkisins 119.9 110.7 105.0 97.8 86.6

Nett skuldir rkisins 77.2 78.4 74.7 68.8 61.2

  • essi sst. a .e. grarstr fjrfesting 2011, sem a framkalla visnning.
  • Hvorki innlend neysla alm. n fyrirtkja, er drifkraftur hagvaxtar. Efirspurn fyrirt. fer ekki skv. essari sp, a aukast a ri fyrr en 2013.

Tafla bls. 37 - tlur milljrum dollara.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Innflutningur varnings -3.3 -3.6 -3.8 -4.0 -4.4 (framhaldandi samdr. innfl. vekur ath.)

Innfl. jnustu -2.0 -2.1 -2.3 -2.5 -2.7

(a hefur aldrei gerst hagkerfis sgu slands, a hagvxtur veri n aukningar innflutnings)

tflutningur varnings 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3

tfl. jnustu 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9

(Spurning hvort AGS hafi nga vitneskju um hegun dverghagkerfa, sem urfa a flytja nr allt inn, g vi varning sem fyrirtki urfa til starfsemi sinnar) (En, aukning eftirspurnar, og aukning umsvifa, hagkerfinu, kallar innflutning, eins og alltaf hefur fram a essu tt sr sta)

Neysla fyrirtkja 1.4 2.1 3.7 5.5 5.0 (tlur teknar r hinni tflunni a ofan)

Neysla almennings -2.5 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 2.5 (tlur teknar r hinni tflunni a ofan)

(.e. v mjg undarlegt, mia vi hegun sl. hagkerfisins, fram a essu, a gera r fyrir aukningar umsvifa hagkerfinu, ar me tali aukningar umsvifa fyrirtkja, sama tma og gert er r fyrir, a tflutningur varnings haldi fram a skreppa saman)

  • En, sl. fyrirtki, ef au auka vi sna starfsemi, urfa a flytja inn, nnast allt til alls.
  • milljnajflgum, er mun meiri breidd framleislu, og afng oft fanleg, innan lands.
etta er .s. g vi, egar g bendi, a essar forsendur a ofan, virist hpnar.

Eina leiin sem g s, til a etta gangi upp, er a gera r fyrir a lfskjr almennings haldi fram a skreppa saman r fr ri, annig a minnkun neyslu almennings s .s. framkalli essa minnkun innflutnings - og s minnkun neyslu s svo str, a rtt fyrir a fyrirtki hljti a vera a auka kaup sn vrum til starfsemi sinnar erlendis fr, s samt etta mikil minnkun innflutnings heildina liti.

  1. eru lfskjr enn a skreppa saman, v ef tekjur almennings og fyrirtkja vru a aukast sama tma, yri aukning innflutningi hjkvmileg.
  2. .e. eina leiin, til a f tlurnar, til a ganga upp, .e. a gera r fyrir framhaldandi versnandi lfskjrum.

Niustaa
  • Forsenda hagvaxtar, er a grarleg fjrfestingarverkefni, fari af sta.
  1. Sem segir, a ef au vera ekki, verur ekki hagvxtur.
  • Alvarleg lfskjaraskering, heldur fram - r fr ri, nstu r.
  1. Reikna m me, a flutningur flks fr landinu, muni aukast r fr ri.
Alls vst, er hvort essi stru fjrfestingar verkefni, muni fara af sta.
  • Enn er gert r fyrir eim.
  • En, ekkert eirra er enn, bi a fjrmagna.
  • Vonast er til, a takist a ganga fr fjrmgnun, sar rinu.
  1. En, etta r, er sennilega eitt versta fjrmgnunar r, heimssgunnar.
  2. essu ri, verur sett algert heimsmet, slu rkisskuldabrfa markai Evrpu, og heiminum llum.
  3. .s. ll inrkin eru me mjg umtalsveran hallarekstur sinna rkissja, sem afleiing kreppunnar.
  4. .s. flest eirra, tla sr a mta eirri fjrrf a verulegi leiti, me slu rkisskuldabrfa.
  5. , leiir etta til essa gfulega frambos, rkisskuldabrfa sem framundan er essu ri.
  6. Markaurinn, me skuldabrf rkissji ea annan opinberan rekstur, verur essu ri, algerlega fyrirsjanlega, kaupendamarkaur.
  7. En, essu tilviki, leiir lgml frambos og eftirspurnar, .e. ofgntt skulda sem bonar vera til slu; til hjkvmilegrar hkkunar vaxtakrfu, sem kaupendur munu krefjast.
  8. Flest bendir til, a eir seljendur sem ykja tiltlulega httusamir, sbr. Grikkland og sland, muni urfa - eftir v sem ri lur - bja stighkkandi vexti, til a f ngilega marga kaupendur. essari viku, fr vaxtakrafa til Grikklands 8%.
  9. Vaxtakrafa, til httusamra lntaka, er v upplei.
  10. standi, verur ekki endilega betra nsta ri, .s. fyrirsjanlegt er a halli rkisstja t.d. Evrpu rkja, verur einnig mjg mikill nsta ri, og mun einungis minnka smm saman, annig a standi aljamrkuum, mun einungis skna smm saman.
  • etta, dregur sem sagt, r lkum ess, a hgt veri a fjrmagna ln til Landsvirkjunar og Orkuveitunnar, um strframkvmdir orkumlum, sem arf til ef reisa tilekin 2. risalver. a eru einmitt r framkvmdir, sem eiga a koma ll af sta.
  • etta dregur einnig r lkum ess, a rkissjur, muni sar essu ri, geta endurfjrmagna kostnaarsm ln, sem skv. skrslunni, er gert r fyrir a veri endurfjrmgnu. En, lkkun vaxtakostnaar af vldum eirra skuldbreytinga, er inni spnni.

En, ef hagvxtur fer ekki af sta, seinni helmingi essa rs, eins og gert er r fyrir; er allt volli.

Kv.


Hverjir eiga bankana? Svari er einfaldara, en flestir virast halda! En, samt einnig flknara!

Bankarnir, sem daga heita, Arion banki og slands banki, eru eigu hvor sns eignarhaldsflagsins, sem eru undir stjrn sinnar hvorrar skilanefndarinnar, .e. skilanefndar Glitnis og Kaupings banka.

Arion banki og slands banki, eru eigu rotaba Kaupings banka og Glitnis

stan ess, a eir eru undir stjrn skilanefndanna er s, a Arion banki og slands banki, eru aftur komnir eigu, rotaba Glitnis og Kaupings banka. a var .s. sala rkisins eim bnkum, ddi reynd.

Fyrirkomulagi, sem skilanefndirnar kvu, var a mynda um hvorn banka eignarhaldsflag, og san er eignarhaldsflagi eign hvors rotabs. Fulltrar, sem hvor skilanefnd hefur vali, sytja stjrn hvors eignarhaldsflags fyrir sig.

  • essir bankar, eru me rum orum, ekki eigur krfuhafa, nema me mjg beinum htti.
  • En krfuhafar, eiga eftir allt saman, lagaformlega s, einungis "KRFUR".
  • r krfur f eir ekki innleystar, fyrr en llum krfum hefur veri lst - bi - gengi hefur veri fr llum vafamlum - mikil vinna ar enn eftir og vst hvenr v ferli lkur, en dmsml spretta oft upp vegna vafamla, og sala eigna getur fari fram. En, lgum skv. getur sala ekki fari fram, fyrr en allir dmsrskurir hafa falli.
  • Ef vi hfum huga, hvlkar svikamyllur bankarnir voru, virist manni ljst a mguleiki s til staar v, a dmsml vegna vafamla, geti reynst vera -nokkur fjldi, og a tafir lkningu, vikomandi rotaba, geti ori jafmvel einhver r.
  • En, krfuhafar geta ekki talist eigendur, lagaformlega s, .s. mean eir hafa rttarstu krfuhafa, hafa eir engan umsslurtt, me eignir vikomandi rotaba - ar me tali Arion banka og slandsbaka.
  • eir, geta ekki fengi, full rttindi og ar me skildur eigenda, fyrr en uppgjri rotaba Glitnis og Kaupings, er loki.

etta er atrii sem vi verum, a hafa huga, .s. veruleg htta er a lkning rotabanna veri tafsm, jafnvel tafir yfir einhver r, svo a veri getur a etta vissu stand, hangi yfir vikomandi bnkum, Arion banka og slands banka, um einhver r.

Krfuhafar hafa ekki umsslurttindi me eign rotabi, svo eir eigi strstu krfur vikomandi eign!

Allan ann tma, .s. krfuhafar, svo sumir eirra hafi mjg sterka stu vegna strar sinnar krfu og sterks verttar, hafa reynd engar lagalegar skyldur gagnvart Arion banka og slands banka, mean lkning rotaba Kaupings banka og Glitnis hefur ekki enn fari fram; sytja Arion banki og slands banki ar me allan tmann reynd limbi, .s. allan ann tma, sytja menn uppi me a stand, a eir sem menn vonast eftir a gerist eigendur eirra, hafa ekki lagalegar skyldur n lagaleg rttindi eigenda.

  • .e. v ekki hgt a bast vi v, a eir ausni mean, hefbundi hlutverk eigenda.
  • g nefni sem dmi, .s. eir hafa ekki beinan umsslurtt, hafa eir ekki fram a essu geta haft bein afskipti af starfsemi Arion banka og slands banka.
  • g hefi bist vi v, a ef eir hefu stu eigenda, a ljsi herfilega llegrar stjrnunar bankanna er fru rot, og ljsi ess, a sama flk a langmestu leiti er enn vi stjrn nju bankanna og tk tt hrunvegfer eirra eldri; hefu eigendur sent sn eigin teymi til slands, til a taka beint yfir stjrnun helstu deilda bankanna, og san fri endurskoun starfseminnar fram.
  • Fjrmlarherra, hefur gefi skyn, a s stareynd a enginn hefur fengi a fjka, rtt fyrir frga vegfer fyrri banka, gefi til kynna traust eigenda starfsmnnum og stjrnendum Arion banka og slands banka. g held, a a s augljs vttingur, .s. eir sem kallair eru eigendur, llum fjlmilum, hafa ekki neinn beinan umsslurtt, a Arion banka og slands banka; sem er augljslega skring ess, hvers vegna, enginn skurkur hefur enn veri gerur um starfsemi Arion banka og slands banka.
  • etta getur tt eftir a reynast bagalegt! .s. svo lengi sem limbi vihelst, er ekkert sem bendir til a neinar breytingar veri gerar innan Arion banka og slands banka, og a skal enginn halda, a margir ar innan dyra eigi ekki a skili a fjka.
  • A auki, a mean s staa vihelst:
  1. Leggja eir ailar sem menn vonast eftir a veri eigendur, ekki frekara f til Arion banka og slands banka.
  2. Eins og sst a ofan, eru eir ekki heldur, a skipta sr af starfsemi Arion banka og slands banka, hafa enda engan rtt til ess, en slkra afskipta er sannarlega rf.
  3. mean, verur ekki af v, a erlendir eigendur, endurskipuleggji starfsemi Arion banka og slands banka, og bi tl raunverulega trausta banka me trveruga starfshtti.
  4. En, a var einmitt .s. margir vonuust eftir, a akoma erlendra banka, leiddi til.
En, mean limbi vihelst, er essum bnkum stjrna af skilanefndunum, sem eru starfsmenn Fjrmlaeftirlitsins, sem er ein af stofnunum slenskra stjrnvalda - ergo, undir hl rkisstjrnarinnar reynd.

Svona er etta! Arion banki og slands banki, eru eign - rotaba Kaupings banka og Glitnis:
a ir ekki, a eir sundir krfuhafa, sem eiga krfu hinar msu eignir, rotaba Glitni og Kaupings, su allir jafnir. Sumir, eru jafnari en arir.

  • En, nokkrir strir erlendir bankar, sem eiga strstu krfurnar, eirra hagsmunir eru a strir, a skilanefndirnar tku snum tma kvrun um, a taka ekki strar kvaranir, n ess a hafa einhvers konar, eirra samykki.
  • etta snst ekki um formlega lagalega stu, .s. fr sjnarhli laga og rttar, hafa eir engan rtt umfram sem eiga miklu mun smrri krfur.
  • En, .s. g vi, er a str krafna eins og sr, hefi veitt eim veruleg hrif ferli, hvort sem er - svo eir geti ekki talist, eigendur me lagaformlegum htti - eins og orran hrlendis, gti vill fyrir flki um.
  • En, sumum tilvikum, getur standi veri annig, a str aili, sem 1. rtt krfu, a flest bendi til, a s taki svo miki til sn, a lti veri eftir fyrir krfu 2., 3, o.s.frv. annig, a lta m vikomandi, sem raun-eiganda slku tilviki, .s. staa vikomandi sem krfuhafa er svo miki sterkari en annarra tilteknu eign. En, samt sem ur, hefur vikomandi ekki agang a eirri eign, mean hn sytur rotabi, verur a sta v a vera me rttarstu krfuhafa eins og hver annar, annig a eignin lti stjrn skilanefndar, ar til gengi hefur veri fr llum vafa-atrium, um krfur almennt, ar me tali dmsmlum vegna krfuhafa sem telja rtt sinn gengi. En, ekki fyrr, en v llu er liki, fr vikomandi tkifri til a leysa eign til sn, egar formleg sala fer fram. Ekki er hgt a tmasetja, hvenr s sala fer fram. Sennilega ekki nsta ri - .s. svona ferli tekur tma.
  • Skilanefndirnar, tku me rum orum, einfaldlega ann pl hina, fr upphafi. A, innvikla essa strstu krfuhafa inn ferli, hafa alltaf me rum.
  • Sennilega hefur veri, kvein skynsemi eirri kvrun.
  • egar, skilanefndir Kaupings og Glitnis, geru samkomulag vi rkisstjrnina, sasta ri. Um a rotab Kaupings og Glitnis, tki aftur yfir endurreista banka - Arion banka og slands banka; hefur s ager mjg sennilega veri hrint framkvmd samri vi strstu krfuhafa.
  • sta ess, a a hltur a vera svo, er a rki fkk greislu. Hana hefur ekki veri hgt a inna af hendi, n almenns samkomulags vi krfuhafa, .s. fjrmagn verur ekki teki r rotabi nema me skriflegri heimild allra krfuhafa.

Niurstaa:

Staa Arion banka og slands banka, er miklu mun skrari, en rkisstjrnin hefur vilja lta.

En, .s. mr kemur vart, er hve grarlega margir taka beint undir me rkisstjrninni. Jafnvel etta sinn, stjrnar andstaan.

En, eins og g hef tskrt, er ekkert klrt me stu essara tveggja banka anna en a, a staa eirra er mjg ljs.

  • En, klrlega a svo lengi, sem staa eirra er limbi, og eir sem ailar vonast eftir, a veri endanum raunverulega eigendur eirra, hafa ekki enn rttarstu og ar me umsslurttindi og skildur eigenda.
  • , leiir beint af v, a eir hafa engar skuldbindingar gagnvart eim bnkum.
  • a sem g vi, er a ekkert hindrar v, a hlaupa fr llu saman, hvenr sem eim snist svo - , vsa g til ess samkomulags, sem sennilega er fyrir hendi vi skilanefnd sem hlut, bundi mrgum skilyrum, au skilyri sem g ekki ekki. En, eli mls skv. , mia vi hve vissa um framvindu mla er mikil, tel g lklegt anna, en a essi ailar, hafi gengi fr mlum me eim htti, a eir geta fari ef eir fara vilja.
  • .s. essir samingar eru ekki opinber plgg, veit almenningur ekki neitt raun og veru.

Kv.


Hva ir s stefnumrkun rkisstjrnarinnar, sem fram kemur viljayfirlsingu hennar til AGS. Fari rkilega yfir mli!

etta plagg, virist hvorki meira n minna, en innihalda stefnumtun rkisstjrnarinnar, nstu r.

Mesta athygli, vekur lofor rkisstjrnarinnar, a tryggja Bretum og Hollendingum, fulla endurgreislu, eirra Icesave greisla sem Hollendingar og Bretar krefjast af okkur, og a auki a veita eim "sanngjarna" vexti.

Hva svo sem, "sanngjarnir" vextir eru.

San, vekur mna athygli, vi lestur viljayfirlsingarinnar, s hrai sem rkisstjrnin virist tla sr, a setja mli.

  • a sst v, a rkisstjrnin gerir enn r fyrir, a hagvstur fari af sta seinni helmingi essa rs - flest bendi til framhaldandi samdrttar t ri hi minnsta, sennilega einnig nsta r, jafnvel arnsta.
  • A eirra mati, er forsenda a A) Klra Icesave, B) F peningana fr AGS og Norurlndunum, ea hagstustu fjrmgnun sem vl er , skv. orru Gylfa Magnssonar. ir a, einfaldlega, a Icesave arf a klra ekki seinna en um mitt sumar.

-----------------------------------------innskot

Rkstuningur rkisstjrnar:

  1. En rkisstjrnin telur, a endalok Icesave deilu.
  2. Og, a fjrmagni fr AGS og Norurlndunum, komi allt inn, a lokum.
  3. Muni, stula a lkkun vaxtakrfu, erlendra fjrfesta gagnvart slandi.
  4. En, rkisstjrnin, rkstyur a me minnkun vissu, .e. a tryggt s me eim lnum, a rk veri ekki greislurota.
  5. Me lkkun vaxtakrfu, veri OR og LV mgulegt, a fjrmagna framkvmdir viranlegum kjrum. Rki muni a auki, geta hafi endurfjrmgnun lna, hagstari kjrum.
Vandaml:
  1. En, etta r, er sennilega versta fjrmgnunar r, heimssgunnar.
  2. essu ri, verur sett algert heimsmet, slu rkisskuldabrfa markai Evrpu, og heiminum llum.
  3. .s. ll inrkin eru me mjg umtalsveran hallarekstur sinna rkissja, sem afleiing kreppunnar.
  4. .s. flest eirra, tla sr a mta eirri fjrrf a verulegi leiti, me slu rkisskuldabrfa.
  5. , leiir etta til essa gfulega frambos, rkisskuldabrfa sem framundan er essu ri.
  6. Markaurinn, me skuldabrf rkissji ea annan opinberan rekstur, veru essu ri, algerlega fyrirsjanlega, kaupendamarkaur.
  7. En, essu tilviki, leiir lgml frambos og eftirspurnar, .e. ofgntt skulda sem bonar vera til slu; til hjkvmilegrar hkkunar vaxtakrfu, sem kaupendur munu krefjast.
  8. Flest bendir til, a eir seljendur sem ykja tiltlulega httusamir, sbr. Grikkland og sland, muni urfa - eftir v sem ri lur - bja stighkkandi vexti, til a f ngilega marga kaupendur.
  9. .e. flest bendir til a vaxtamunur, milli httusamra skulda og eirra sem bera tiltlulega litla httu, s upplei.
  10. etta ir - me rum orum - a mjg lklegt er, a hgt veri a f hagst ln, til fjrmgnunar framkvmda, essu ri - alveg burts fr Icesave veri klra - og - alveg burts fr hvort lnin fr AGS og Norurlnunum muni berast.
Verum skynsm:
  1. g er ekki a segja, a ekkert gagn s af essum lnum, .s. au tryggja a.m.k. a rki verur ekki greislurota br.
  2. mti kemur, a au gera greislustu rkissjs til lengri tma, erfiari - .s. eftir allt saman, kemur a eim tma, a einnig arf a borga af eim.
  3. .s. au gera, er a gefa svigrm tma - a svigrm arf a nta af skynsemi - best vri, a a svigrm, vri nota, til a hefja allsherjar endurskipulagningu skulda slands.
-----------------------------------------innskoti loki
  • Slkur asi, a sjlfsgu veikir stu samninganefndarinnar, .s. Bretar og Hollendingar, vita a rkisstjrnin vill klra mli sem allra - allra, fyrst. Telur a vera frumforsendu ess, a efnhahagtlun um endurreisn, gangi upp.
  • Sem sagt, httan er s, a Hollendingar og Bretar, gefi lti eftir og a nr samingur, veri nlgt eim samningi, sem hafna var af jinni.
  • Rkisstjrnin, er einnig lkleg, til a lta undan krfu Hollendinga og Breta, a lta hinn gamla texta Icesave samningsins sluga, ganga endurnjun lfdaga.
  • Heildarhttan, er einfaldlega, a n deila um Icesave, skaki jflagi - alveg eins og sasta sumar.

Sj: Yfirlsing rkisstjrnarinnar til AGS

Plaggi er heilu lagi, en me mnum hugleiingum t fr plagginu, inn milli.

Letter of Intent
Reykjavik, April 7, 2010
Mr. Dominique Strauss-Kahn
Managing Director
International Monetary Fund
Washington D.C., 20431
U.S.A.

Dear Mr. Strauss-Kahn:
1. Our economic program, supported by a Stand-By Arrangement from the Fund, is delivering on its objectives. Progress towards fiscal sustainability is reflected in passage of a 2010 budget embodying significant adjustment, and in the approval of a rigorous public debt management plan. A key first step towards full restructuring of the financial sectorrecapitalization of the banking systemis now all but complete. And the krona has been stable. While Icelands economy faces a difficult period of adjustment, our policy successes to date have helped make the recession less severe than expected. With continued policy implementation Icelands economic recovery should commence during 2010, setting the stage for declines in high public and external debt levels over time.

Rkisstjrnin, vsar arna, sustu fjrlg, en skv. eim er halli rkissji minnkaur me - hkkun skatta og niurskuri rkistgjalda. A auki, er reikna me, tekju-aukningu vegna upphafs hagvaxtar, seinni hluta rsins. etta eru forsendur, sem g ekki von , a standist. Rkisstjrnin, talar alltaf eins og upphaf, hagvaxtar s ekki ef spurning.

  • En, n egar er ljst - tel g, a vimi um hagvxt og ar me tekjur, sem mia er vi, og ergo halla tgjldum; ganga ekki upp.
  • En rkisstjrnin hefur egar viurkennt, samdrtt um 2% - ef nst ekki a starta strframkvmdum essu ri. Selabankinn, metur lklegan samdrtt yfir 4%. g tel hann, vera yfir 6% - jafnvel 8%.
  • En, gert var r fyrir upphafi hagvaxtar, essu ri. En, forsenda ess, er einmitt a rsaframkvmdir, fari fullan gang, egar essu ri.
  • En, fullljst, - tel g - er a a gengur ekki eftir, .s. ljst er, - a mnu mati - a pln um fjrmgnun strframkvmda, eru sennilega leysanleg.
  • En, Gylfi Magnsson, hefur tala um, a rkissjur, sar essu ri, muni reyna a ryja brautina, fyrir lntku viundandi kjrum, einmitt me v a leita til erlendra markaa, og f ln viundandi kjrum. Sanna ar me, a sland hafi agang a fjrmlamrkuum.
  • En, von rkisstjrnarinnar er einmitt - eins og g tk fram a ofan - a A) endalok Icesave deilu, a B) framhald tlunar AGS samt, .e. au ln sem stefnt er a v a taka, berist - - leii til lkkunar vaxtakrfu fjrmlamarkaa gagnvart slandi.
  • Rkisstjrnin, mun v vntanlega, leitast vi a ljka samingum vi Breta og Hollendinga, samt v a koma eim samingum gegnum Alingi, fyrir mitt nsta sumar. , vntanlega vonast hn, til a restin af fjrmagninu skili sr, fyrir hausti.
  • San, vntanlega, vonast hn til a framkvmdir geti hafist, haust.

  • Eins og g lsti an, er etta sennilega versta r heimssgunnar, til a fjrmagna skuldir lnamarkai, vegna ofgnttar skulda sem vera boi, aljlegum mrkuum fyrir skuldir.
  • Vegna offrambos, skuldum .s. rkissjir inrkjanna, hyggjast fjrmagna ur ekkt magn skulda me slu skuldabrfa.
  • er vaxtakrafa, fyrir skuldir, upplei - ekki niurlei.
  • A auki, er vaxtamunur httulitlum rkjum eins og skalandi og httumiklum eins og Grikklandi - slandi, einnig upplei.
a er v, alveg bersnilegt, a plani hans Gylfa Magnssonar, um a leita hagstra lna sar rinu, er grarlega lklegt til a ganga upp.

  • En, jafnvel vi myndum gera v skna, a lausn Icesave deilu og lnin fr AGS, hafi einhver jkv hrif, fjrfesta.
  • kemur versnandi almennt stand, aljamrkuum, vegna ofgnttar frambos skuldabrfa, -en trlegt magn rkisskuldabrfa verur selt sar rinu-, mti.
  • annig, a mjg lklegt verur a teljast, a lnakjr muni skna, fr v sem n er.


einfaldega er a afgreitt, a ekki verur af strframkvmdum, sem krefjast nrra strfeldra virkjanaframkvmda. Hi minnsta, ekki essu ri.

  • En, stand nsta rs, verur ekki endilega betra, .s. fyrirsjanlegt, er a fjrmgnunarvandi rkissja Vesturlanda, heldur fram nstu r - sem ir vntanlega, a erfitt stand lnamrkuum heldur fram, batnar vart nema smm saman nstu rum - svo fremi, a vi gefum okkur, a vesturlnd su ekki lei nja kreppu.
  • verur ekki af hagvexti - essu ri - nsta ri - og - v arnsta.

2. Our policy implementation is broadly on track. All performance criteria, including end-December targets, have been met. Benchmarks concerning approval of a public debt management plan, recapitalization of Landsbanki, and submission to parliament of legislation covering supervisory reforms have been met, albeit with delay in two cases. The benchmark on recapitalizing the savings banks has not been observed, but the work in this area is now almost complete. The status of all program measures is summarized in Tables 12.

g hef miklar efasemdir, um raunverulegan fjrhagslegan styrk bankanna, .s. hann byggist plani rkisstjrnarinnar um hagvxt, sem a flestum lkindum gengur ekki upp. Gat a sennilega aldrei.

  • En, standi vivarandi samdrttar, vera miklu fleiri ln vanda, en n er gert r fyrir.
  • lkka einnig ver fasteigna, og annarra eigna, meira en sennilega er gert r fyrir.
  • Me rum orum, eignastaa bankanna muni reynast mun verri, en n er reikna me.

held g, a fjrhagsstaa eirra, sveiflist hratt yfir a a vera jafnvel neikv.

  • g legg einnig til, a tali um hagna, s teki me mrgum saltkornum, en gmlu bankarnir sgust alltaf hafa hagna, alveg fram a eim degi er eir hrundu.
  • En, flestir eir smu, eru enn vi strf innan nju bankanna, er tku tt a kafsigla gmlu.


3. On this basis, we request completion of the second review under the Stand-By Arrangement. In light of the delay in the second review, we request that the arrangement be extended to August 31, 2011 and purchases rephased. The third review would now be available on or after July 15, 2010, with quarterly reviews thereafter (beginning in the fourth quarter of 2010). Moreover, as set out in Table 1, we request that ceilings and floors for the quantitative performance criteria under the arrangement be established for May 31, 2010, and September 30, 2010, and that indicative targets be set for December 31, 2010. As detailed below, we also propose 5 new structural benchmarks against which to measure progress towards key fiscal and financial sector objectives for the next 12 months (Table 2).

15. jl 2010, er sennilega dagsetningin, sem rkisstjrnin n, hyggst vera bin, a klra Icesave mli.


4. We believe that the policies set forth in this and previous letters are adequate to achieve the objectives of our program. We stand ready to take any further measures that may become appropriate for this purpose. We will consult with the Fund on the adoption of any such measures and in advance of revisions to the policies contained in this letter, in accordance with the Funds policies on such consultation.

Rkisstjrnin, heldur sig enn vi plani fjarstukennda, sem mta var sumari 2009, sem skv. eirra oralagi, mun endurreisa hagkerfi slands.

g undirstrika "mun" .s. rkisstjrnin, .e. hennar talsmenn, hafa alltaf tala eim dr, a etta s ekki ef spurning.

Ef einhver er binn a gleyma:

  1. Upphaf hagvaxtar 2010 - 2,2% hagvxtur 2011 - 3,4% hagvxtur 2012 og 3,6% hagvxtur 2013 og a v er virist, gert r fyrir eim hagvexti um skilgreint tmabil aan fr.
  2. Gert r fyrir afgangi af vruskiptum milli 160 og 180 milljara, fr essu ri, og nstu 10 r. var, afgangur sasta rs, upp 90 milljara, slandsmet. annig, a aukning arf a vera upp , 70-90 milljara, ar ofan - en, ekki verur s, hvernig .e. hreinlega mgulegt.
  1. En, v m ekki gleyma, a sland er rrki. Slk jflg, hafa tiltekin sameiginleg einkenni - .e. einhfann tflutning sama tma, a flest .s. nota er, arf a flytja inn.
  2. Sem dmi, auka hsbyggingar innflutning, .s. fyrir utan grjti - sandinn og sementi; arf a flytja allt inn. Byggingaframkvmdir, og nr alveg sama af hvaa tagi, auka innflutning og draga v, r afgangi af vruskiptum.
  3. Svipaa sgu m segja, um margt anna. .e. flest afng til starfsemi, eru innflutt - .e.: vlar og tki, hrefni. etta ir, a hagvxtur - fram a essu fullkomlega n nokkurra undantekninga - leiir til lkkunar afgangs af vruskiptum.
  4. v meiri sem hagvxturinn er, v minni er afgangurinn af vruskiptum - .s. eftir allt saman, ef veri er a fjrfesta, arf a flytja inn.
  5. a hefur fram a essu, ekki veri tskrt, me fullngjandi htti, af hverju hagkerfi mun hega s allt ruvsi nstu rum, en a hefur gert fram a essu. Og, .s. verra er, ruvsi en rhagkerfi annars staar, eru vn a haga sr.
  6. Rkisstjrnin, og stuningsmenn hennar, hafa fram a essu, alltaf lti essa tilteknu gagnrni, eins og vind um eyru jta.
  7. Sko, sland hefur fram a essu, veri eins og nnur rhagkerfi, og a hljmar mn eyru, eins og hrein skyggja, a tla v a hega sr me allt rum htti - svo a a s ef til vill satt, a a s .s. arf.
  8. Ef .e. mli, a etta er .s. arf, mannamli, er plani mgulegt.

Eitt af v, sem fer taugarnar mr, er framkoma stjrnarlia. En, eir lta margir hverjir, Gylfi Magnsson er einn s versti, eins og a eir sem voga sr a efast um plani, su einhverjir fvitar.

Hj stuningsmnnum stjrnfarflokkanna, er stuningur vi plani, farinn a hljma eins og trarbrg. sta ess, a svara gagnrni, er rist persnu manna, gert lti r eim. Me rum orum, ausnd er ltilmtleg framkoma.

The outlook
5. We expect the economy to turn the corner in 2010 and begin a gradual recovery:

  • Quarterly growth should turn positive by the second half of 2010, on the back of strong export performance, but we expect the recovery to be gradual over the medium-term. Risks to growth remain significant, mainly from weaker than projected consumption and investment as the economy de-leverages, and from uncertainties surrounding the timing of investments in the energy intensive sector. Upside is also possible: strong competitiveness may lead to a stronger-than-projected response of exports, and there is ample upside potential through higher foreign direct investment.


Menn eru kvenir, sinni fantasu - .e. ljst.

En, skv. essu, heldur rkisstjrnin og Selabankinn sig, enn vi tlanir, sem kynntar voru sumari 2009, eins og ekkert hafi skorist, millitinni.
  • kemur arna fram, a skortur a fjrfestingarverkefni fari af sta, geti skapa vesen.
  • A auki, rtt minnast eir mguleikann, a minnkandi fjrfesting og neysla, geti einnig skapa vesen.
Teljum aeins upp bremsurnar, sem eru hagkerfi, - .e. hvert eitt essara atria, minnkar mguleika hagvexti:
  • Erfi skuldastaa heimila.
  • Efi skuldastaa fyrirtkja.
  • Samdrttu sem var umsvifum bankakerfisins, ess afleiingar sem enn eru a koma fram.
  • Hkkun skatta.
  • Hvaxtastefna Selabanka.
  • Veikt bankakerfi, sem enn er ekki fari, a jna hlutverki snu, sem veitandi nrra lna.
  • Minnkun og minnkandi umsvif hins opinbera.
  • Samdrttur erlendis, samt lkkuum verum fyrir tflutning.

-------------------------------innskot

g bendi nlega umfjllun Selabanka, um heimilin:

Mlstofa um stu heimila, 12. aprl 2010

"Forsendur um framfrslukostna heimila (Glra 10)
  • Lagt er mat getu heimila til a standa undir greislubyri lna og lgmarksframfrslu
  • essum tilgangi er byggt neysluvimiunum Rgjafarstofu heimilanna um lgmarksframfrslukostna fyrir lkar fjlskyldugerir
  • Kostnai vegna reksturs bifreiar er btt vi ar sem heimili eru me blaln
  • Rtt er a undirstrika a neysluvimianirnar taka ekki tillit til miss fasts kostnaar, t.d. vegna sma, skrifta, fasteignagjalda, trygginga og dagvistunar"
Ekki er einhltt a leggja mat hver nausynleg tgjld eru vegna ofangreindra atria fyrir lkar fjlskyldugerir (glra 13)
  • Hins vegar er lklegt a hjn me brn urfi nausynlega allt a 100 .kr. aukalega til a standa undir kostnai vegna dagvistunar, trygginga og annarra fastra tgjalda
  • greiningunni er snt hversu htt hlutfall heimila nr ekki endum saman ea minna en 50 .kr. afgang egar greitt hefur veri af lnum og stai undir lgmarksframfrslu a teknu tilliti til fjlskyldugerar og hvernig etta hlutfall hefur breyst

egar um er a ra hjn me brn er einnig snt hversu htt hlutfall eirra nr ekki endum saman ea minna en 100 .kr. afgang."

  • Framfrsluvimiin, koma fram glru 12. ( Mlstofa um stu heimila, 12. aprl 2010 )
  • San m sj niurstu greiningar, glru 23. .e. 23% allra heimila ni ekki endum saman, ef mia er vi + 50 .kr. S tala er a sjlfsgu hrri, ef nota vri + 100 .kr.
  • San kemur forvitnileg glra, .e. glra 28. En, ar er reikna me, a agerir til skuldbreytingar, sem boi er upp , geti lkka hlutfall heimila vandrum, mia vi + 50 .kr, niur 21%.
  • Nsta glra, ef sennilega enn hugaverari, en ar eru skou srstaklega heimili me brn framfri, .e. glra 29. er gert r fyrir, a afgang upp 100 .kr. urfi til, ofan lgmarks framfrslu vimi. En, skv. henni, fer fj. heimila me brn r 28,4% 26,8% - mia vi tttku, agerum boi til skuldbreytinga.
  • Glra 30, birtir mat stu einstra foreldra, en skv. henni fer hlutfall heimila einstra foreldra, vandrum, me tttku agerum til skuldbreytinga lna, r 37% 34%.
  • Glra 31, hjn n barna, en skv. henni, me tttku skuldbreytingum lna, fer hlutfall eirra vandrum, r 15% 14%. er mia vi + 50 .kr.
  • Glra 32, en ar eru tekin fyrir ll heimili me gengistrygg ln, og niurst. 33% vandrum - vimi + 50 .kr. Er sennilega nr 40%, ef vimi vri + 100 .kr.
  • Glra 33, heimili me einungis ln krnum, niurst 15% vandrum + 50 .kr.
  • Ungt barnaflk, sem tk ln eftir 1. jan 2006, 39% vandrum + 100 .kr.
  • Skoi svo glru 35 .s. niurst. eru teknar saman, sluriti.
  • Glra 43: "S teki mi af niurstunum hr a framan og au heimili tekin t sem n ekki endum saman ea eru mrkum ess a geta stai undir greislum og framfrslu fst hpur heimila sem telur tp 24 sund heimili sem er lklegur til a urfa frekari agerum a halda."
  • Glra 44 - nnari greining heimilum vanda. Lgsti tekjuhpurinn, sennilega inniheldur einkum atvinnulausa. En, 80% lgsta tekjuhpsins, telst vanda. San, fkkar heimilum vanda, upp tekjuskalann. etta getur bent til, a atvinnumissir og ea tekjuskerinf vegna samdrttar vinnu vinnusta - .e. kreppan, s strsti httutturinn.
  • Glra 45, en .e. greint eftir bsetu. Heimili vanda, eru mun fleiri hfuborgarsvinu, og nstu svum kring, en landsbygginni. Nbygg svi, eru einnig me meiri vanda, en eldri byggar hlutar.
  • Glra 46, en ar kemur fram, a um helmingur heimila vanda, eru aldurshpunum 40 og yngri. Hlutfall heimila vanda, er hrra yngri en eldri hpum.
  • Glra 47 - niurst. um 56% heimila vanda, eru me gengistrygg heimilis- ea blaln.
  • Glra 48: "Um 23% heimila eru vanda en au eru me um 42% af heildarblaskuldunum. Hlutdeild eirra balnum er 27% ea nokkurn veginn takt vi str hpsins. Lilega 30% af heimilum vanda eru neikvri eiginfjrstu hsni sem gerir au enn vikvmari en ella."

-------------------------innskoti loki

g tk arna fyrir skuldastu heimila - en, standi mla ar, m frekar lkja vi hamfarir, en sm gindi.

Ofan etta, er staa fyrirtkja ekki beysin heldur, - en skv. sustu skrslu AGS tldust um 60% fyrirtkja vera me sjlfbra skuldastu. v m einnig lkja vi hamfarir.

Bar hamfarirnar, eru enn a vefja upp sig. Fram a essu, hefur mlum veri tt fram. Engin lausn hefur enn tt sr sta.

g kenni rkisstjrninni ekki endilega um a, enda er standi algerlega n fordma. En, g kenni henni um, a vanmeta afleiingar ess.

En, svona svakalega alvarleg staa, almennings og fyrirtkja, sama tma - er grarlega flugur hemill, getu hagkerfisins til hagvaxtar. Einmitt vegna hinnar, grarlegu alvarlegu skuldastu, er svo alvarleg vxlverkun nverandi hvaxtastefnu, vi a stand. San, ar ofan , hkkai rkisstjrnin skatta - sem enn minnkar mguleika hagvexti. etta heggur allt sama tma, sama knrunn - samt vandrum bankakerfisins, samdrtti rkistgjalda, o.s.frv.

annig, a .e. einfaldlega ljsi essa, trlegt a detta a hug, a hagvxtur fari af sta, vi essar astur.

  • Headline inflation should subside to below 5 percent by end-2010 and fall to the 34 percent range in 2011. Stability of the krona and significant slack in the economy will reduce price pressures next year. Risks to the inflation outlook emanate from possible second-round effects of exchange rate fluctuations, and wage increases in export sectors, and potentially persistent inflation expectations. If the krona strengthens more than currently forecast, we may see faster disinflation. To help contain risks, the Government remains committed to a Stability Pact with its social partners.

arna var minnst stugleika sttmlann, sem eins og kunnugt er, er uppnmi, en Samtk Atvinnulfsins, hafa sagt sig fr honum. A auki, hefur framvindan, veri mjg gangrnd af Alusambandinu, a hafi ekki fram a essu, teki svipaa kvrun.

  • Annars er a rtt, a verblga tti a fara lkkandi, enda er ekkert sem br hana til, nema verfall krnunnar.
  • En, hkkar allt sem er innflutt, sem hrlendis, er nnast allt sem er nota.
  • a m alveg eins halda v fram, a verblgan hafi veri engin.
  • En, hr er engin ensla, ar me engin verblga - sem skapast fyrir tilverkna enslu.
  • En, reiknu verblga, sem framkallast fyrir tilverkna gengisbreytinga, er einungis hgt a lkkka me v a)Koma gengisstugleika. b)Hkka gengi.
  • Selabankinn, heldur vi fram, a hir vextir, su einmitt, a styrkja gengi krnunnar.
  • a m alveg halda v fram, a eir hafi verfug hrif. .s. ljsi alvarlegustu skuldakreppu vesturlndum - 40% heimila me neikva eigna/skulda-stu - 60-70% fyrirtkja skuldavandrum; valda vextir mjg flugum samdrttaraukandi hrifum.
  • Me v a auka samdrtt, minnka eir jarframleislu .e. heildarvermtaskpun jflagsins; sem llu a jfnu, tti einmitt a leia til lkkunar gjaldmiilsins.
  • En, me elilega gjaldeyrismarkai, .e. egar eir eru jafnvgi og ekkert er til staar sem skekkir markainn; markasver gjaldmiils skv. kenningum hagfrinnar a rma vi tiltr markaarins v a vikomandi hagkerfi haldi fram a skila vermtaaukningu. .e. hagvxtur leii almennt til hkkunar - samdrttur almennt til lkkunar; sbr. a gjaldmiillinn vri hlutabrf fyrirtki.
annig, tti hagvaxtahvetjandi stefna, endanum a skila, aukinni tiltr markaarins gjaldmilinum. A sama skapi, tti hagvaxtaletjandi stefna, a llu jafnai, a skila minnkandi tiltr markaarins gjaldmilinum.

6. We expect debt levels to peak at high levels in 2010, and then recede: Public debt is climbing at a slower rate than expected. We have been able to partly finance our deficit by selling some of the financial assets acquired during the crisis, while there had been less need than anticipated for government resources in recapitalizing the banking system, reflecting creditor acquisition of the government equity share in Islandsbanki and Arion Bank. Public debt is on a robust downward path, and with the further recovery and sale of assets acquired during the financial crisis, and careful management of our debt refinancing needs (as outlined below), we believe that by 2014 it can be reduced to below 90 percent of GDP in gross terms (including residual Icesave-related debt), or below 65 percent of GDP after netting out government deposits.

etta er merkileg fantasa, en skuldir rkisins fara upp 140 VF, ef ll skuldaaukningin skv. AGS planinu, er tekin.

Ef eim skuldum, er sleppt, er skuldastaa rkisins nlgt 80% - ea hefur veri a, fram a essu, essu ri.

  • essu samhengi, skiptir mjg miklu mli, a plani um hagvxt gangi upp.
  • En, .s. flest bendir til, a svo veri ekki, vantar tekjuhliina.
  • svo a sala eigna fari fram, skiptir mjg miklu mli, hvenr salan fer fram. En dreifing hennar skv. ngildandi plani skilanefndar t.d. Landsbanka, er a dreifa slunni nsta rma ratug, .e. vimi 14 r. etta m sj plggum sem brust nefndum Alingis er fjlluu um Icesave. lkkar Icesave lni hgar en ella, sbr. Vaxtakostnaur verur meiri. etta var atrii, sem var gagnrnt, af stjrnarandstu. En, rkisstjrnin, talai alltaf eins og, sala eigna fri fram, skv. upphaflegu greisluplani, sem geri r fyrir a sala eigna hfist egar essu ri. stan, g bendi etta, er a sala eigna, ekki einungis r Landsbanka, getur ekki fari fram, fyrr en bundi hefur veri enda vafaml, tengslum hver rtt hvaa eign, rtt a setja fram krfur, o.s.frv. annig, a fyrst arf a afgreia slk dmsml. g man ekki betur, en a rkisstjrnin, hafi fengi bendingar ess efnis, fyrir lngu san, a lklegt s a sala eigna, fari af sta fyrr en eftir 2011 fyrsta lagi. Alls ekki er hgt a gera r fyrir v, a tafir geti ekki ori, umfram a - jafnvel um einhver r. En, krfuhafar eru margir, og lengi getur veri von einu dmsmli enn. Srstaklega ljsi ess, hvlkt agalegt dmi, rekstur bankanna var. En, hreinlega virast eir hafa veri rautskipulagar svikamillur.
  • v lengur sem salan dregst, v hrri vera skuldir, ur en eignasala getur fari a minnka r. A auki, skiptir efnahagsleg framvinda em lndum, sem r eignir er a finna mli, en a hefur hrif lkleg ver. Um essar mundir, eru skuldir slands a har - a tekjur jflagsins, duga ekki fyrir vaxtakostnai. .e. stan ess, a einhver AGS ln arf, .e. til ess a gjaldeyrissjir hreinlega urrausist ekki, nstu 2. rum.
  • San, ofan etta, btist stand - vivarandi kreppu. Sem minnkar tekjur rkisins og einnig jarframleislu, eykur halla - vert ofan .s. tlanir rkisstjrnarinnar, sem hafa mjg ltil veruleikatengsl, gera r fyrir - og ar me, stular a aukningu skulda.

For external debt, a clearer picture is emerging, and the overall level is expected to remain well below the pre-crisis peak. The total overall gross debt level is now projected to peak at about 300 percent of GDP, compared with over 600 percent of GDP pre-crisis. Private debt is now estimated to be higher because it has become apparent that old banks will recover some assets from domestic sources. Since these new private debts mainly have a medium to long term maturity, and capital controls are now in place, we do not expect them to exert near-term pressure on the balance of payments. In the medium-term, any over-indebted corporations will have to address their debt overhang, assisted by the framework for private sector debt restructuring. Overall, the gross external debt is expected to fall to under 250 percent of GDP by 2014.

svo, a heildarskuldir su atrii - og, Gylfi Magnsson, er alveg reytandi vi a verk, a benda , a skuldastaa okkar s ekki a ri verri, en rkja Evrpu eins og t.d. Bretlands.

er a alger lykilforsenda mti, a tekjuhliin s lagi.

En ef einstaklingur A og einstaklingur B, skulda jafn miki. En, einstaklingur B, starfar hj fyrirtki sem er vandrum, og kvei var a lkka laun og a auki, minnka vinnuhlutfall. annig, a tekjur B eru a skreppa saman. er a tm tjara, ef einstaklingur B, ber sig saman vi skuldastu A, og segir vi sjlfan sig - g skulda ekki meira en A svo g er ekki verri mlum en A.

etta er hegun Gylfa Magnssonar hnotskurn, .e. stugt karpa um sjlfa skuldastuna, og san einfaldlega sagt, vi gerum r fyrir auknu tekjustreymi. svo staan hafi fram a essu veri s, fr hruninu 2008, a tekjustreymi fari jafnt og stugt minnkandi.

Enda, hefur veri, samdrttur allan tmann san . Og, ef ekki verur af strframkvmdum skv. tlun rkisstjrnar, lagast ekkert s tekjustaa, vert mti heldur hn fram a versna, vegna ess, a er ekkert anna spilum en framhaldandi samdrttur, r fr ri.

A sjlfsgu, kemur a v, einhverjum tmapunkti, ef s staa heldur fram r eftir r, a a kemur ljs a skuldir rkisins su sjlfbrar.

7. Underpinning these outcomes is the originally envisioned program financing, and a modified policy framework. Our external financing needs continue to be satisfied by a combination of IMF funds, and loans from the Nordic countries and Poland. Slow progress in our Icesave discussions with the U.K. and Netherlands may delay realization of some of the programmed bilateral financing, but as discussed at the end of the letter we expect these negotiations to reach a conclusion soon. A current account surplus, in the context of capital controls, can help keep the program fully financed in the interim. Our key objectivescurrency stability, fiscal sustainability and financial sector restructuringare also unchanged and remain crucial for securing a durable recovery and reducing risks. However, we are introducing some policy modifications to support economic activity in the near term, as discussed in what follows.

a er mjg hugavert a rkisstjrnin segist telja virur muni n niurstu fljtlega. Ekki hefur komi fram, hva er bakvi etta.

N sast hdeginu, dag 19. janar, sagi talsmaur rkisstjrnar, aspurur um essi ummli, telja boltann vera hj mtailunum. Ekki standi, slendingum.

Er einhver n eftirgjf boi - ea, er etta algerlega innihaldslaust?

Fiscal Policy.
8. We have adjusted the fiscal stance to help support the recovery. Lower public debt and an improved outlook for public debt sustainability have paved the way for a more supportive stance. Thus the general government primary deficit adjustment, on a national accounts cash basis, will be 4 instead of 5 percent of GDP in 2010 (which will deliver a general government primary deficit level of 2 percent of GDP). We expect local governments, in aggregate, to maintain broadly the same primary balance in 2010 as in 2009, and their budget plans are in line with this. Social security funds should show a mild deterioration in their balance. To achieve our target, we thus plan a central government primary adjustment of 4.4 percent of GDP (to achieve a primary deficit level of 2.4 percent of GDP). The central government budget, embodying the measures necessary to achieve this target, was passed by parliament in December (meeting a prior action for the review):

  • Revenue measures will help raise the primary revenue ratio by 1.2 percent of GDP. Without these measures, cyclical and other factors would have led to a decline in the revenue ratio. We expect the changes to improve the fairness of the tax system:
  • Underlying measures amount to 2.1 percent of GDP and include: (i) introduction of a three-bracket PIT system with an increased tax-free allowance and an increase of the capital income tax; (ii) an increase in the standard VAT rate; (iii) a new tax on wealthy individuals; (iv) new environmental and carbon taxes; and (v) increases in excises, social security contributions and fees. To facilitate stronger administration, we have also amended the income tax law to address issues of tax circumvention and arbitrage.
  • Temporary measures amount to a further 0.4 percent of GDP. These include revenues from extending the possibility to withdraw savings from individual supplementary pension savings accounts, and from prepayment of corporate taxes by high-energy users.
  • Expenditure measures will help reduce the primary spending ratio by 3.2 percent of GDP. They include general cuts in current expenditure and wages formulated at the agencylevel under the guidance of the Ministry of Finance; cuts in transfer payments, including from improved means-testing of social benefits and efficiency gains in the health system; cuts in investment and maintenance projects to pre-boom levels; non-indexation of wages and benefits; and reductions in discretionary spending items. These changes do not affect the key features of our social safety net, and indeed the budget allocates additional resources for vulnerable groups (e.g. for enhanced educational and work opportunities for the young).
  • We will use any revenue over performance and under spending in 2010 to accelerate our fiscal adjustment, just as we did in 2009.

  1. a arf varla a taka fram, a allt etta stendur og fellur me v, a tlanir um hagvxt seinni helmingi essa rs gangi eftir.
  2. Strframkvmdir ttu a vera egar hafnar, en - enn er fjrmgnun, eirra allra, frgengin.
  3. Eins og g hef lst, heldur rkisstjrnin - a allt reddist, ef a)Icesave veri klra og b)Lnin fr AGS og Norurlndunum, berast.
  4. , allt einu, veri fjrfestar, viljugari til a lna - og a viranlegum kjrum.
  5. essu trir rkisstjrnin, vert mjg sterkar vsbendingar um mjg erfitt og versnandi stand lnamrkuum.
  6. A auki, ltur hn framhj v, a svo a lnin skili v a rkissjur fr hendur eysluf, sem tryggir a hann veri ekki greislurota, hin allra nstu r. mti, gera au greislustu landsins, enn erfiari en ur til lengri tma liti - en, vextir og afborganir af eim lnum, btast ofan ara vexti og afborganir sem fyrir eru.
  7. Um sustu ramt, voru tekjur jflagsins, rtt fyrir vruskipta-afgang upp 90 milljara, samt minni en greislu vaxta af erlendum skuldum - mismunurinn var tekinn r gjaldeyrisvarasji. Svo arf a gera fram, svo lengi sem etta erfia tekjustand varir. En, ef ekki tekst a f strframkvmdir gang, vihelst a stand fram.
  8. Svo lengi sem a varir, st upp essi peningur, smm saman, sem vi eigum bk.
  9. Ef ekki nst visnningur, kemur a eim degi, a hann klrast.
  10. En, n strfamkvmda, arf a n fram visnningi, me einhverju allt ru, en n er veri a reyna.

En, n visnnings, skiptir engu mli, hversu miki skattarnir eru hkkair.

Rki getur ekki, standi kreppu, n skotti sjlfu sr, me hkkunum skatta - .s. standi kreppu, hafa hkkanir skatta mjg alvarleg kreppu aukandi hrif.

9. The Ministry of Finance has approved a public debt management strategy (a prior action for this review). The aim is to support the fiscal adjustment path by smoothing the financing of the deficit and refinancing of debt coming due, and by containing risks from contingent liabilities. The strategy emphasizes: (i) diversification across instruments and the investor base; (ii) prudent management of rollover risks; (iii) the sale of financial assets acquired during the crisis; (iv) a stronger framework for managing contingent liabilities; and (v) strengthened institutional arrangements.

  • Hallinn rkissji, er fjrmagnaur me v a Lfeyrissjir + balnasjur, kaupa skuldabrf sem rki selur, kjrum sem eru hagst fyrir rk. Ekki veit g til hvaa ara lnamguleika rki, getur haft. En, frilega getur a teki ln hj bnkunum, en arf a lkka grunnvexti, langt - langt, niur fyrir 9%.
  • Hva hitt varar, hefur rki ekki haft agang a erlendu lnsfjrmagni, til nokkurs hlutar, san hruni var oktber 2008. Sasta ln, sem teki var - var neyarlni mjg hagstum kjrum, sem teki var til a endurfjrmagna Selabankann. a kostai 300 milljara, en mun kosta mun meira egar fulluppgreitt.

Bli textinn, er sennilega vsun draumra Gylfa Magnssonar, um a ryja brautina sar rinu, erlendum lnamrkuum.


10. We will continue to strengthen the fiscal framework during 2010, with a focus on fiscal-federal relations. We expect the new local government framework to comprise: (i) a fiscal rule; (ii) clear restrictions on municipal borrowing; (iii) robust mechanisms for dealing with volatility in local revenues; (iv) enhanced in-year surveillance of local government fiscal developments; (v) stronger national-local dialogue on fiscal objective-setting and budget planning; (vi) a range of sanctions for non-compliance. The preparatory work will be completed by end-August, and budgets for 2011 will be prepared in line with the new framework. We intend to enact these changes into law by end-2010, and propose this to be a new program structural benchmark.
Monetary Policy and Capital Controls.

etta reyndar hljmar ekki slmt, a setja sveitarstjrnum, ramma um hvernig au meiga skulda og hve miki.

arft verk, t af fyrir sig.


11. Monetary policy will continue to be guided by the interim objective of currency stability. The potential for currency depreciation, inflation pass-through, and further balance sheet stress call for caution concerning changes in the policy stance. To the extent the exchange rate strengthens, we will need to balance the benefits that can be delivered by accumulating reserves against those to be derived through interest rate reductions. Uncertainty about the precise timing of external financing argues for some reserve accumulation at an earlier stage than previously envisaged, done in a manner to preserve the gradual recovery of the krna. The scope for reducing interest rates will accordingly be more limited until the timing becomes clear.

Innihald essa, m tlka me stuttri setningu - framhaldandi ofurvextir um fyrirsjanlega framt!


12. To enhance the effectiveness of policy, the MPC has realigned the CBIs interest rates within a narrower corridor. The width of the corridor has been reduced to 300 bps, and the central bank CD rate and the 7-day repo lending rate have been positioned close to the center of it. One or the other will be used depending on the CBIs need to withdraw or inject liquidity. To further enhance liquidity management, the CBI has started pre-announcing targeted weekly volumes (set at a level to remove the estimated liquidity surplus at a given interest rate target), and accepting all bids up to this targeted volume.

Selabankinn hefur vst veri a selja viskiptabnkunum brf, eins og sagt er "to draw in excess liquidity" sem mannamli, ist annig a Selabankinn hafi boi viskiptabnkunum essi brf, til a draga r upphleslu fjrmagns innlnsreikningum eirra.

En, ljst virist a me grunn vexti upp 9% og san urfa viskiptabankarnir sinn vaxtamun til a standa undir eigin rekstri, sem framkallar lkleg lnskjr vart undir 14-15%; a ln eru einfaldlega of hu veri, til a ailar hafi efni eim.

Heimskir fjlmilar, vitna oft srfringa - svokallaa - Selabankans, sem tala um a bankarnir su tregir til lnveitingar; egar blasir vi s einfalda skring a ekki s tregu til lnveitinga um a kenna heldur miklu fremur tregu hugsanlegra lntaka til a taka ln, essum ofurkjrum.

Me rum orum, vaxtastefna Selabankans, er str hluti af efnahags vandanum, .s. hn veldur v, a viskiptabankarnir eru frir um a veita ln, kjrum sem viskiptavinir geta almennt teki au samkvmt.

13. We have adjusted our capital controls regime, to enhance its effectiveness. At end-October, we took the first step in our liberalization strategy by lifting controls on new investment (the initial inflow and proceeds from new investments in foreign currency became freely transferable). However, the conditions are not yet in place to begin liberalizing capital outflows, and in particular greater certainty about the timing of external financing will first be required. To enhance the effectiveness of administration in the near term, we have introduced revised rules, which include limitations on cross-border movements of krona and fewer exemptions. We have backed this up with increased resources for monitoring, and by enforcement actions. These steps are already showing results: the onshore rate has appreciated even while intervention has ceased. Looking forward, we will ensure adequate resources in monitoring and enforcement of the controls, and data collection, and stand ready to revise and extend the foreign exchange act and rules as necessary to ensure their effectiveness.

Einn galli essu, sem ekki hefur komi fram fjlmilum, a i mrgum tilvikum voru ailar sem reyndu a fara framhj hftunum, einfaldlega a leitast vi a bjarga sjlfum sr.

En, krafan um a allur gjaldeyrir s lagur inn Selabankann, ir a allir eir sem urfa gjaldeyri, til a greia af erlendum lnum og ekki hafa tekjur gjaldeyri, geta n ekki lengur greitt me krnum - .s. essi tting hafta, kemur veg fyrir a erlendir ailar, geti san komi eim krnum ver, me gilegum htti. En, banna er algerlega, a fra krnur milli erlendra og innlendra bankareikninga.

annig, a s tting hafta, reynd lokai notkun krnunnar sem greislumiils erlendra skulda. annig a ailar, urfa n stainn, eir sem ekki hafa gjaldeyristekjur, a leita sama brunninn - .e. gjaldeyrisvarsj Selabanka.

etta reyn, stulai aukninni httu greislufalli, .s. afleiingin var hjkvmilega auki gjaldeyriststreymi, .e. hraari lkkun forans.

Financial sector policies

14. Recapitalization of the banking sector will soon be complete. This will mark a necessary first step towards a durable renewal of lending, and set the stage for more complete operational restructuring during 2010:

  • New Landsbanki has been recapitalized to 12 percent of tier I capital to risk-weighted assets (a prior action for the review). The government capital injection, ISK 122 billion, was made based on the banks December 2008 audited financial statements. The compensation agreed with Old Landsbanki reflected a valuation methodology that the FME has accepted as consistent with industry standards. And the compensation package comprised a fixed instrument, a contingent bond and 19 percent of bank shares. This completes the recapitalization of the commercial banks.
  • We have made substantial progress towards recapitalizing savings banks and, while we were not able to observe the end-November structural benchmark to this end, we will soon fully complete the process. An agreement has been reached with eight smaller savings banks to be confirmed in April by their boards and the FME. Three will be recapitalized by their owners, while the remaining five will be recapitalized up to 16 percent of their risk weighted assets. Negotiations with the creditors of the two largest savings banks Sparisjurinn Keflavk and Byron necessary haircuts and write downs of equity by owners have been completed and are now proceeding to documentation. These institutions will be recapitalized up to 16 percent of their risk weighted assets (tier 1 capital to 12 percent and tier 2 capital to 4 percent). If necessary, public funds will be used to the limits defined in the Emergency Law, but only after all existing losses are allocated to their owners and creditors, managers and directors that are deemed to be ―non fit‖ and ―not proper‖ are removed, and a strategy to strengthen their liquidity position is put in place. We propose the recapitalization of Sparisjurinn Keflavk and Byr as a new program structural benchmark for end-May 2010. The total fiscal cost of addressing the recapitalization of the savings bank sector is not expected to exceed 1 percent of GDP.

  • Mean vextir haldast kringum 9%, er erfitt a sj a lnveitingar, fari gang.
  • 12% eiginfjrhlutfall, er ekki miki egar haft er huga, a grarlegar afskriftir lna eru framundan - r mestu slandssgunni sennilega, mean efnahagssamdrttur vihelst heldur slmum lnum fram a fjlga og a auki, heldur ver fasteigna fram a hrapa.
15. The remainder of the financial system will be put onto a stronger footing. We will take several steps to further enhance the medium-term viability of the non bank financial institutions and the Housing Financing Fund (HFF):
  • By end-June 2010 the non bank financial institutions and HFF will present business plans to the FME (using macro assumptions in the Fund-supported program and the premises considered by the new banks in the preparation of their business plans) demonstrating their capacity to remain solvent and generate liquidity to honor debt coming due over the next three years, without government support. The FME will complete the review of the consistency and credibility of these reports and require rehabilitation and/or recapitalization measures where needed by end-August 2010. We propose this as a new program structural benchmark. We remain committed to no absorption of losses and no public assets will be used to rehabilitate the non bank financial institutions.
  • We will ensure that the HFF is subject to prudential rules similar to those faced by other financial intermediaries, with an appropriate phase in for increases in capital.
g velti fyrir mr, hvort tt er vi balnasj.
16. A bill has been submitted to parliament to strengthen our regulatory and supervisory practices (meeting an end-December structural benchmark):
  • The draft legislation to address deficiencies in the bank regulatory framework is expected to be passed by end-June. The legislation mandates improved risk management systems and governance in banks (including via stronger rules on remuneration systems and severance agreements); strengthens provisions on large exposures and connected and related party lending; enhances fit and proper requirements for major shareholders; grants discretionary powers to the FME to act on key fronts (including concerning credit limits for institutions, and the eligibility of potential investors); permits the creation of a credit registry at the FME; boosts the quality of bank equity; and strengthens provisions covering both internal and external bank audit.
  • We have also introduced a draft bill of law modifying the deposit guarantee regime. At the present time, we remain committed to protect depositors in full, but when financial stability is secured we will plan for the gradual lifting of this blanket guarantee. Only when we reach this point, will the coverage be gradually reduced to the EUR 50,000 defined in the bill. The framework will specify coverage in line with EU legislation, ensure quick repayment on a gross basis, and gradually introduce higher risk based insurance premia.

17. We will take further actions to strengthen regulation and supervision during 201011:
  • On the basis of the revised legal framework, by end-September we intend to amend key prudential rules (regarding connected parties, large exposures and the use by banks of the consolidated information on borrowers in the FMEs new credit registry). We also will ensure that commercial banks have adopted measures to address risk management and the governance issues identified in FME comments on their business plans. Finally, to facilitate prudential monitoring, we intend to introduce temporary requirements for commercial and savings banks to submit audited financial statements semi-annually (instead of annually) for the next two years.
  • We intend to take stock of the implementation of recommended changes in our supervisory regime, and assess whether there is any need for further strengthening. We will complete an assessment of compliance with the revised Basel Core Principles and formulate a strategic plan to address identified weaknesses. The assessment and plan, which will be published by end-March 2011, will be led by independent and internationally-recognized assessors and conducted on the basis of the Core Principles Methodology. We propose this to be a new program structural benchmark.
Ekkert um etta a segja, nema a umbtur lgum um banka, og rekstur eirra; eru greinilega til ga.
Private sector debt restructuring

18. The tools are being put into place to accelerate private sector debt restructuring. This should place viable firms and households on a sounder footing and support private sector demand:
A comprehensive framework is being established for household debt restructuring:
  • Information. All households have access to the Debt Advisory Services, which provides information and advice to individuals on restructuring options.
  • Automatic measures. Households holding CPI-indexed mortgages are automatically placed into a generalized payment smoothing program to provide debt service relief for mortgages (but can opt out). A similar scheme exists for fx-denominated mortgages and auto loans, albeit on an opt-in basis.

Vsa til greislujfnunar, .s. greislubyri er lkku tmabundi, en mismuninum btt aftan lni, a v lengt og skuldin reynd aukin.

  • Voluntary workouts. All households can also seek a voluntary agreement with their lenders on a workout. Generalized guidelines have established eligibility and have specified criteria for debt write downs. Based on these guidelines, the banks and HFF have established their own frameworks for voluntary workouts.

etta hefur alltaf veri hgt, .e. a semja a eigin frumkvi um skuldir, vi banka ea ara lnveitendur.

  • Court-assisted processes. If such measures prove insufficient, households have access to a court-supervised process covering residential mortgages, in which the court will decide a new payment mitigation scheme based on repayment capacity.


essi dmstlalei, er tgfa af nauasamningum, .e. srstku nauasamninga ferli var btt inn lg, um nauasamninga aila viskiptum og fyrirtkja. Gallinn vi hann, er hve skaplega tafsamt etta ferli er og hinsvegar, a a setur lag dmstla - sem egar eru undir mjg miklu lagi, og fyrirsjanlegt a lag mun aukast strum venga risastrra dmsmla vegna fjrmlamisferla sem framundar eru.

annig, a var alltaf mnum huga, bsna hpi a bja upp etta ferli, sem ein af aal-lausnum, vanda yfir 20 sund heimila.

Einfaldlega vegna ess, a ef verulegt hlutfall svo strs vanda, fer yfir dmskerfi, drukknar a.

  • To ensure that the framework functions smoothly, we intend to (i) provide debtors better access to information, advice, and mediation mechanisms in the context of voluntary workouts; (ii) extend eligibility to households and individuals not now covered by the schemes; and (iii) create incentives for financial institutions and debtors to expedite voluntary restructuring agreements. We propose that passage of legislation to strengthen the framework along these dimensions be a structural benchmark for end-June 2010. We emphasize that with this refined framework in place, there will be no further extensions of the moratorium on foreclosures, and we will allow it to expire on schedule at end-October 2010.


g bendi or Selabanka slands: "S teki mi af niurstunum hr a framan og au heimili tekin t sem n ekki endum saman ea eru mrkum ess a geta stai undir greislum og framfrslu fst hpur heimila sem telur tp 24 sund heimili sem er lklegur til a urfa frekari agerum a halda."

etta er skrt ora, frekari agera er rf.

En, rkisstjrnin, virist virkilega halda, skv. essu, a nnari tfrsla nverandi agera, .e. lagfringar, muni einfaldlega duga.

v, muni vera htt, a heimila njan leik, uppbo heimilum eirra, sem eru skuldavandrum. En, fram a essu, san skmmu eftir hrun, hafa nauungaruppbo veri bnnu, bann sem hefur veri framlengt tvisvar.

Ef g man rtt, voru a um 2.000 fjlskyldur, sem stu frammi fyrir v, a a vri selt ofan af eim.

N, Selabankinn - meina g, meira a segja Selabankinn - segir a meira urfi til, fyrir um 24 sund heimila tla af Sel a s vanda.

  • The framework is in line with the financial capacity of banks and financial institutions to engage in workouts. We will take the necessary measures to ensure the system has enough administrative capacity to process workouts. We do not expect any fiscal costs, but if any do emerge, they will have to fit within the agreed fiscal envelope.
  • We have introduced a framework to support voluntary corporate debt restructuring. By law financial institutions are required to submit internal guidelines for debt restructuring to the FME for approval. The FME has evaluated and approved these guidelines and the Competition Authority is expected to sign off by end-April. These guidelines apply to businesses of all sizes, but banks may introduce more expeditious procedures to restructure smaller corporations as needed. The guidelines include: criteria under which loan terms can be altered, criteria to evaluate a debtors assets and liabilities and a debtors ability to service debt based on expected future income and cash-flow, as well as other objective criteria which may be used to evaluate the debtor, company management and owners. A special committee will monitor and report on whether debt restructuring guidelines adopted by financial institutions are being applied as intended and with an overall emphasis on transparency and fairness.
  • Incentives are being introduced for banks to accelerate corporate debt restructuring. We have submitted a bill amending the Act on Financial Undertakings, which ensures that unrestructured loans are reflected in banks books and provisions on a timely basis. The FME will also require more frequent independent auditing of the valuation of loan collateral, undertake enhanced onsite examination, and require incorporation of fx loans to unhedged borrowers (that are in the process of being converted into ISK) into the computation of market risk, by end-2011.
  • The government will also take steps to facilitate restructuring (without absorbing any private sector losses). In particular, we will propose measures to ensure that the tax treatment of debt write-offs does not complicate debt restructuring. The government has also offered extended installment schemes to viable debtors; and, for other debtors, will review collection procedures to ensure that they maximize government recovery and allow for timely decisions.

Af essu a ofan, sst herslan a lta bankana sj um mli.

  • a vri allt lagi, ef bankarnir stjrnunarhttir eirra hefu nokku traust .e. stjrnendur eirra.
  • En, eir hafa a mestu nkvmlega sama flki, og tk tt hrunvegfer gmlu bankanna.
  • Umkvartanir hafa borist um, a bankarnir gefi gjaldrota fyrirtkjum - sem haldi er rekstri af eim - alltof lausan tauminn, annig a fyrirtki, sem ekki su undir stjrn bankanna, eigi undir hgg a skja samkeppnislega.
  • Tortryggni er uppi um, a bankarnir muni me essu, f elilega mikil vld, um atvinnulfi, .e. a atvinnulfi muni urfa a sytja og standa skv. vilja bankastjrnenda, miklum mli.
  • Vandinn er s, a stjrnendur bankanna, fyrir utan eigendur, eru eir smu og misnotuu astu sna ur.
  • Maur sr einmitt fyrir sr, httuna nrri skn stjrnenda bankanna, eftir vldum og hrifum, gegnum a a n stjrn strum hluta atvinnulfsins.
  • Punkturinn er s, a einmitt elilega mikil hrif fyrri ramanna bankanna, var .s. kom llu kaldann klakann, sast.
Einhvern veginn, virist rkisstjrnin halda, a sagan geti ekki endurteki sig, einungis vegna ess, a n eru vinstriflokkar vi vld.

Miklu betra hefi veri, a ef h stofnun, ekki undir beinni stjrn bankanna, hefi veri sett ft, sem hefi teki yfir gjaldrota fyrirtki.

etta var lagt til, a norskum rgjafa rkisstjrnarinnar, en ekki hlusta au r.

19. The insolvency regime will be refined. This is necessary to support debt restructuring, and to address non-viable borrowers:
  • We have submitted to Parliament proposals to amend the insolvency regime. We expect the amendments to be passed by end-June. The amendments will aim in particular to (i) simplify and expedite in-court proceedings for reaching restructuring agreements between viable debtors and a qualified majority of creditors, and for liquidating unviable debtors; (ii) facilitate cross-border insolvency proceedings by allowing a debtor or foreign bankruptcy trustee to seek assistance from Icelandic courts even in the absence of an international treaty; and (iii) ensure protection of secured creditors claims. Finally, we will conduct an assessment to determine whether to implement a system of ―pre-packaged debt restructuring plans‖ to enable viable debtors to reach out-of-court restructuring agreements with a qualified majority of creditors. This assessment will be concluded by end-June 2010, and if the conclusion is that the implementation of such a system is advisable, a proposal for its establishment will be submitted to Parliament by end-October 2010.
  • We will also expand the capacity of the institutional framework to process cases by increasing the number of judges and assistant judges by 5 each. We have also appointed a working group to assess whether changes can be made to criminal procedural law to lessen the strain on the District Courts and the Supreme Court.

Hef ekkert vi etta a athuga, hljma sem gagnlegar rstafanir. Dmsmlarherra, s a sinna sinni vinnu. Hn er sennilega besti rherrann.

Eini rherrann, sem g gti hugsa mr, a hldi fram snum strfum.

External Financing

20. Our ability to fully implement the program described above is dependent on access to the external financing committed under the program. We firmly expect to be able to meet the preconditions set by some of our bilateral partners to access this finance. In this context, we wish to reaffirm that Iceland will honor its obligations in regard to the insured retail depositors of the intervened banks. Iceland has already affirmed in its Letter of Intent dated 15 November 2008 that it is willing to ensure that the United Kingdom and the Netherlands will be reimbursed in respect of deposits of Landsbanki branches in those two countries (up to the Euro 20,887 minimum provided for under Icelandic Law and the EU Deposit Guarantee Directive 90/19/EC). Iceland has also given an assurance that the United Kingdom and the Netherlands will receive the reasonable time value of money, provided that comprehensive agreements are reached. Iceland remains ready to conclude at the earliest convenience the negotiations with the Governments of the United Kingdom and the Netherlands regarding a legal and financial settlement of this matter.

etta er s kafli, sem mesta athygli vekur.

Hva etta ir akkrat, er ekki hgt a ra af oralagi textans.

  • Nema, a fyrsta setningin er ngilega skr - .e. a rkisstjrnin telur grundvll endurreisnar - hin einu rttu vibrg vi skuldakrsu slands - leiina til a sannfra erlenda lnveitendur um a lna frekar til lands skuldakrsu; a hkka skuldirnar. opnist allar flgttir, og n ln hagstum kjrum, aan fr muni streyma til landsins.
  • En, restin af kaflanum, er ekki srlega skr, nema oralagi ess efnis, a rkisstjrnin s ess fullviss, a samningum um ntt Icesave samkomulag, muni ljka - fljtlega. En um, hvers konar saming, er veri a ra, kemur ekki skrt fram. En, a getir allt veri fr v a vera Icesave samingur sem ltur mjg svipa t og s gamli, yfir a vera alveg nr samingur, me algerlega njum texta, .s. msum alrmdum kvum gamla samningins vri trmt.
  • Eitt m fullyra, .s. maur skynjar sem olinmi rkisstjrnarinnar, vinnur gegn v a nr samningur, veri miki ruvsi en gamli samningurinn.
  • Htta snist mr v , a plitsk pattstaa sasta vetrar gangi endurnjun lfdaga, .e. svo fremi, a Hollendingar og Bretar, su til a spila ann leik, aftur.
  • Hver veit, ef til vill, hafa Hollendingar og Bretar skynsemi, a bja verulega skrri samninga, nst.
  • Stjrnarandstaan, er reynd, bin a samykkja veitingu "sovereign guarantee" - en, arf a skra a kvi. Setja flugar varnir, inn njan saming. A auki, verur kvi um "Waiver of Sovereign Protection" a fara t. En, saman gtu au kvi vxlverka me eim htti, a kjlfar greislurots geru Hollendingar og Bretar vekall r eignir rkisins, sem veita stugar tekjur. a, hefi san bundi enda efnahagslegt sjlfsti jarinnar, gert hana n a ftkranlendur - slendinga a jna tlendinga, sem ttu allt sem skipti mli. annig, a gamla samninginn, var a drepa -hva sem a kostai.


21. Progress in covering our financing need will continue to be assessed during quarterly program reviews. In the event of further delays to financing, we stand ready to consult with the Fund on any additional measures that would prove necessary to meet program objectives (consistent with our undertaking in paragraph 4 above).

Very truly yours,


Prime Minister: Jhanna Sigurardttir

Minister of Finance: Steingrmur J. Sigfsson


Minister of Econmic Affairs: Gylfi Magnsson


Governor of the Central Bank of Iceland : Mr Gumundsson

er essi umfjllun enda - og g akka eim, sem lgu sig a rekvirki a lesa sig gegnum essa langloku.

Vondandi voru eir einhvers vsari.

Me fyrirfram kk til lesenda.

Kv.


Hvert var yfirfrt viri, skulda sem fr voru yfir Landsbankann, skv. rsyfirliti Landsbankans?

Gln rsskrsla, inniheldur miskonar hugaverar upplsingar.

hugaverasta niurstaan, svo fremi sem g skil upplsingarnar rtt, er a bankinn sjlfur mii a mealtali vi, a innheimta:

  • 64% af skuldum einka-/opinberra-fyrirtkja.
  • 77% af skuldum einstaklinga.
  • 31% af skuldum eignarhalds-flaga.

a m alveg velta v fyrir sr, hversu rtt mat etta er, ljsi ns mats Selabankans skuldum heimila, .e. 39% su me neikva eiginfjrstu.

au heimili, einnig skulda mjg miki, .e. hrra hlutfall en 39% heildar skulda heimila.

Heyrt hef g mat, a 69% skulda heimila hvli heimilum sem lkleg su a lenda vandrum.

A auki, metur greiningardeild Landsbanka 70% fyrirtkja viskiptum vi Landsbankann, erfileikum me skuldir.

  • .s. g vi, er a g hef efasemdir um a eignamat, sem br a baki niurstu Landsbanka slands hf dag, um verulegan hagna.

g get einni nefnt, stareynd, a hagkefri er standi vivarandi efnahags samdrttar. S samdrttur, hverfur ekki me einhverri hkus pkus ager. En, hann er orsakaur af:

  • Erfiri skuldastu heimila.
  • Efiri skuldastu fyrirtkja.
  • Samdrtti sem var umsvifum bankakerfisins, ess afleiingar sem enn eru a koma fram.
  • Hkkuum skttum.
  • Hvaxtastefnu Selabanka.
  • Minnkuum og minnkandi umsvifum hins opinbera.
  • Samdrtti erlendis, lkkuum verum fyrir tflutning.

Samanlagt, skilar etta niurstunni - samdrttur - og me ll essi rekakkeri ti hagkerfi, arf e-h mjg str, til a vega mti.

  • etta mjg stra, tti a vera risaframkvmdir.
  • r hafa fram a essu, tt vandrum me fjrmgnun.
  • En, vandinn er s, a erlend fjrmgnun er of dr, til a framkvmdir geti skila ari.
  • Rkisstjrnina, dreymir um a:
  1. Ln fr AGS.
  2. Endalok Icesave deilu.
  3. Skili lkkun vaxtakrfu erlend ln, til handa slandi og sl. aila.
  • Lifi draumi segi g, v g s alls ekki orsaka samhengi arna milli.
  1. Grunnvandi landsins, er a rtt fyrir verulegar tflutningstekjur, duga r samt ekki til a standa undir greislum af vxtum af erlendum lnum.
  2. Lnin fr AGS eru nausynleg, einmitt vegna ess, svo a gjaldeyrisvarasjurinn hreinlega urrkist ekki upp - en, me vibtarlnum sem munu berast n, dugar hann sennilega t 2012. .e. gott, sosum.
  3. En, etta breytir samt sem ur, ekki eim grunnvanda, a tekjur landsins duga ekki fyrir greislum af skuldum.
  4. .e. s grunnvandi, sem g held a skipti llu mli - .e. lnar ekki aila, sem er me neikvtt tekjustreymi.
  5. Vibtarlnin, gefa visst svigrm tma, til a vinna me okkar skuldaml, ann htt eru au sennilega gagnleg - en, mti, hkka au okkar fjrmagns kostna, og gera skulda- vs. tekju-vanda okkar til lengri tma liti, erfiari.

Umfjllun um rskrslu Landsbanka slands, fyrir 2009:

Eitt af v hugaverasta er viri eirra lna/skulda, sem rki samdi um kaup vi erlenda krfuhafa, og voru san fr yfir til Landsbankans, tilteknu viri - sbr. "fair value."

Efnahagsskrsla Landsbankans - rsyfirlit 2009

Sj bls. 26 og 27. Fram kemur, a vimiunar dagsetning fyrir yfirfrslu eigna, s 9. okt. 2008.

"Fair value" : Virist vera tlun raunviri, eigna/skulda. (- bls. 23)

Eignir og skuldir yfirfrar r rotabi Landsbanka slands hf.

Acquiree's
carrying Fair value
amounts* adjustments Fair value

Eignir:

Fjrmagnseign inni Selabanka 37 827 37 827

Skuldabrf og nnur skuldatki 31,838 (7,214) 24,624
Hlutabrf og skildar afurir 65,707 (29,549) 36,158
Ln og inneignir hj lnastofnunum 5,813 (522) 5,291
Ln og inneignir hj viskiptavinum 1,241,307 (585,582) 655,725
Fjrfestingar hj ailum 2,565 (240) 2,325
Fasteignir og tki/bnaur 8,065 (1,156) 6,909
hlutbundnar eignir 3,690 (2,484) 1,206
Skattalegar eignir 0 4,935 4,935
Arar eignir 1,369 (92) 1,277
Eignir slulista 10,436 (3,938) 6,498
1,408,617 (625,842) 782,775

Skuldir:

Skuldir vi Selabanka og arar lnast. (82,517) - (82,517)
Inneignir viskiptavina - innln (418,045) - (418,045)
Skattaskuld (1,218) (202) (1,420)
Arar skuldir (2,785) 1,479 (1,306)
Skuldir tengdar eignum slulista (4,519) 0 (4,519)
(509,084) 1,277 (507,807)

Heildar eignir - nett 274,968
Non-controlling vextir (168)
Skuld vegna Landsbanka slands hf. (skuldabrf frt til eignar rotab). 274,800


hugavert, er a eignir, essum li, eru frar niur um - 625,842 milljara ea 55% .

sama tma lkka skuldir ekki.

Framhald tflu - bls. 27.

Fyrsti dlkurinn: virist vera andviri yfirfrsludegi, niurfrt.

Annar dlkurinn: virist vera framreikna viri, mia vi elilegar hkkanir, niurfrt.

riji dlkurinn: virist vera .s. bankinn reiknar me a geta innheimt.

Fjri dlkurinn: tla raunviri sennilega mia vi yfirfrsludag - ef til vill kaupviri.

Um skuldir fyrirtkja - einka/opinb.

"Fair value": skulda fyrirt. og opinb. aila einungis 40% af uppreiknuu viri, niurfru.

Bankinn reiknar samt me a innheimta, 36% hrri upph en "fair value".

S upph er lkkun um 36% ef mia er vi uppreikna viri niurfrt.

Um skuldir einstaklinga.

"Fair value": skulda einst. einungis 43% af uppreiknuu viri, niurfru.

Bankinn reiknar samt me a innheimta, 44% hrri upph en "fair vlue".

S upph er lkkun um 23% ef mia er vi uppreikna viri niurfrt.

Skoi einnig liinn "eignarhalds flg".

"Fair value": er einungis 20% af uppreiknuu viri, niurfru.

Bankinn reiknar samt me a innheimta 31% hrri upph en "fair value".

.s. bankinn telur sig geta innheimt, er 69% af uppreiknuu niurfru viri.

Acquiree's Cash flows

carrying Contractual expected to be

amounts* cash flows** collected** Fair value

Skuldir viskiptavina:

Fyrirtki og opinber starfsemi 1,003,957 1,222,767 778,278 497,337
Einstaklingar 237,350 368,613 283,677 158,388
Samtals: 1,241,307 1,591,380 1,061,955 655,725

Skuldir og inneignir hj rum lnast:

Banka-innistur 89 89 89 89
Peninga markas ln 1,501 1,569 1,371 1,304
Yfirdrttir 4,066 4,066 3,778 3,777
nnur ln 157 219 168 121
Samtals: 5,813 5,943 5,406 5,291


Skuldabrf og nnur skuldatki:
Fjrmgnungar stofnanir 4,681 5,966 5,966 3,575
Eignarhalds flg 3,659 4,469 1,370 902
Arar skuldir eigu bankans 23,498 27,602 27,602 20,147
Samtals: 31,838 38,037 34,938 24,624

g treka niurstu sem mr finnst merkust, er g les t r essu.

  • g tek gagnrni vinsamlega, ef ailar telja mig miskilja e-h.

hugaverasta niurstaan, svo fremi sem g skil upplsingarnar rtt, er a bankinn sjlfur mii a mealtali vi, a innheimta:

  • 64% af skuldum einka-/opinberra-fyrirtkja.
  • 77% af skuldum einstaklinga.
  • 31% af skuldum eignarhalds-flaga.

Kv.


Hefnd landvttanna :) The revenge of the spirit guardians of Iceland :)

etta er trleg atburars, ef hfst gr.

Sj dreifingunar skunni - en, skv. njustu frttum, er veri a loka flug skalandi. Holland, lokai morgun. Sama geri London og ngrenni. Krnprinsinn af Noregi, kemst ekki heim, fr New York.

En, systir mn komst heim me flugi morgun, fr Boston.

Sj frtt Visi.is: Askan stvar allt flug Norur - Evrpu

Magna, trlegt - hva maurinn er llill, gagnvart nttruflunum, ham!

etta hltur a vera mesta skugos hrlendis, san Hekla gaus 1947 - ea jafnvel, Katla 1918.

Ef a verur skufall Reykjavk?

Verur htt a keyra bla? Einhver sem ekkir til, m svara.

Hve rt arf a skipta um loft- og olusu?

Ea, er rlagt, a keyra hreint alls ekki neitt?

Kv.


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Einar Björn Bjarnason

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Einar Björn Bjarnason
Einar Björn Bjarnason
Stjórnmála- og Evrópufræðingur. Áhugi á stjórnmálum, Evrópumálum, alþjóðamálum, málefnum Miðausturlanda, trúmálum, vísindum og tækni, og margt fleira.
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